From the concept of option-approach and its influence on levels of investment in times of economical instability in a nation, an assumption was built, based an empirical study of Alves and Luporini (2007), in which the main variables that capture the Brazilian economical instability also had a negative relationship on the investments made with funds of Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) for the period of 1995 to 2006. This study aimed to test this assumption. There fore an equation of investment was estimated to business fortunes of the institution's resources, with the method of data analysis in panel. The results validated the assumption in parts, indicating that in times of economical instability, the o raise interest rates raise on short-term (SELIC) and the devaluation of the exchange rate increased business investment with resources from BNDES. Meanwhile, the General Price Index - Internal Availability (IGP-DI) has meant that companies postpone their investment decisions in the institution's resources, are waiting for new and better information. / A partir do conceito do option-approach e da sua influência nos níveis de investimento em períodos de instabilidade econômica de uma nação, construiu-se o pressuposto, baseado no estudo empírico de Alves e Luporini (2007), em que as principais variáveis que captam a instabilidade econômica brasileira, também possuiriam relação negativa sobre os investimentos realizados com recursos do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), no período 1995 a 2006. O objetivo deste estudo foi testar este pressuposto. Para tanto, uma equação de investimento foi estimada para as empresas tomadoras de recursos da instituição, com o método de análise de dados em painel. Os resultados validaram o pressuposto em parte, indicando que em momentos de instabilidade econômica, a elevação da taxa de juro de curto prazo (SELIC) e a desvalorização da taxa de câmbio elevaram os investimentos das empresas com recursos do BNDES. Enquanto isso, o Índice Geral de Preços Disponibilidade Interna (IGP-DI) fez com que as empresas adiassem suas decisões de investimento com recursos da Instituição, aguardando por novas e melhores informações.

Changes in the electric power industry have brought great challenges and uncertainties in transmission planning area. More effective planning of transmission grids with the appropriate development of advanced planning technologies is badly-needed. The aim of this research is to develop an advanced probabilistic transmission expansion planning (TEP) methodology in a continually changing market environment. The methodology should be able to strengthen and increase the robustness of existing transmission network. By using the proposed probabilistic TEP methodology, it can reduce the risks of major outages and identify weak buses in the system. The significance of this research is shown by its comprehensiveness and powerful practicability. Results from this research are able to improve the planning efficiency and reliability with consideration of financial risks in an electricity market. In order to achieve the target, this research methodologies focused on two main important issues, (1) probability based technical assessment and (2) financial investment evaluation. During the first stage study, probabilistic congestion management, probabilistic reliability evaluation and probabilistic load flow for TEP under uncertainties have been investigated and improved. The developed methodologies and indices, which truly represent the composite impact from both critical state and probability, have linked with financial terms. At financial investment evaluation part, Monte Carlo market simulation is performed to assist economic analysis. The overall planning process has been treated as a constrained multi-objective optimisation task. Comprehensive investigations are conducted on several test systems and testified by real power systems using the available reliability data and economic information from the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Overall, this research developed probabilistic transmission planning methodologies that can reflect modern market structures more accurately and it enable a greater utilization of current generation and transmission resources to increase potential operation efficiencies.