Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, Santa Cruz, 2003. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 161-169).

Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of St Andrews, February 2010.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hong Kong, 2006. / Title proper from title frame. Also available in printed format.

There are three distinct avenues of empirical research relating to option returns. (1) attempts to explain option returns; (2) analysis of models forecasting option implied volatility (IV) versus alternative forecasts of futures realized volatility (RV); and (3) estimation of the economic benefit of volatility forecasting. This study shows that the three apparently disparate fields of research are closely related since option returns are positively related to volatility spread, and asset returns are negatively related to volatility shock. We show that IV outperforms, and indeed subsumes, a subset of time-series historical volatility (TS-HV) forecasts in predicting RV, although the finding that TS-HV does not provide incremental information in forecasting RV, the use of the alternative predictor can enhance the economic profit to option traders. The study also shows that option horizons significantly affect the impact of option mispricing and market direction on option returns. We provide incremental evidence that puts are more expensive than calls and reinforce the argument that pricing asymmetry can be attributed to the greater skewness of put returns due to a negative return-volatility relationship.

Opbrengskoerse van vasterentedraende effekte verander as gevolg van veranderings in vraag en aanbod op die kapitaalmark. Die veranderinge in opbrengskoerse bei'nvloed die pryse van vasterentedraende effekte, asook van die opsies op hierdie effekte en stel beleggers in hierdie instrumente bloot aan beleggingsrisiko. Hierdie studie ondersoek die uitwerking van veranderings in die opbrengskoerse op die pryse van vasterentedraende eff ekte en opsies indien geen verskansing teen beleggingsrisiko toegepas word nie. Verder word verskillende verskansingstegnieke vergelyk ten einde te bepaal welke tegniek beleggingsrisiko die mees doeltreffendste kan beperk. Die studie toon aan dat dit wenslik is om beleggings en vasterentedraende effekte en opsies teen beleggingsrisiko te verskans. Empiriese toetse is op verskeie tegnieke gedoen om te bepaal watter verskansingstegnieke beleggingsrisiko die doeltreffendste kan beperk. Die gevolgtrekking is dat beleggingsrisiko inderdaad doeltreffend beperk kan word. Vir elke posisie in vasterentedraende en opsies is 'n spesifieke verskansingstegniek gei'dentifiseer om sodanige posisie doeltreffend in terme van winsgewendheid te verskans. / Yield on fixed interest bearing securities change as a result of changes in the supply and demand in the capital market. These changes in the yield influence the prices of fixed interest securities, as well as options on fixed interest securities and expose .investors in these instruments to investment risk. This study investigates the effect of changes in yield on the prices of fixed interest securities and options if no hedging against investment risk is instituted. Different techniques are compared to establish which technique will restrict investment risk effectively. This study shows that it is desirable to hedge investments in fixed interest securities and options against investment risk. Empirical tests were conducted on a variety of techniques to establish which technique would restrict investment risk effectively. The conclusion is that investment risk can be limited. A specific technique has been identified for each position in fixed interest securities and options that can hedge such a position effectively against investment risk in terms of profitability. / Business Management / MCOM (Bedryfsekonomie)

M.Comm.

In part 1 of this study I examine several models of competitive markets in which a group of uninformed traders uses the equilibrium price of a traded asset as an indirect source of information known to a group of informed traders. Four different models are compared in two homogeneous information cases plus one asymmetric information case, revealing a) an allocative efficiency benefit resulting from the opportunity to trade current consumption for future consumption, b) a 'dealer' benefit accruing to traders who are able to observe and act on demand fluctuations not apparent to other traders, c) a 'hedging' benefit accruing to all traders, and d) a loss of hedging benefits due to information dissemination before hedge trading can take place. The effect of an increase in precision of information given to informed traders is calculated for the above factors and for net welfare. In part 2, a two-factor model using the instantaneous rate of interest and the return on a consol bond to describe the term structure of interest rates - the Brennan-Schwartz model - is used to derive theoretical prices for American call and put options on U.S. government bonds and treasury bills. These model prices are then compared with market prices. The theoretical model used to value the debt options also provides hedge ratios which may be used to construct zero-investment portfolios which, in theory, are perfectly riskless. Several trading strategies based on these 'riskless' portfolios are examined. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

We present a tree algorithm, called the willow tree, for financial derivative pricing. The setup of the tree uses a fixed number of spatial nodes at each time step. The transition probabilities are determine by solving linear programming problems. The willow tree method is radically superior in numerical performance when compared to the binomial tree method. / Science, Faculty of / Mathematics, Department of / Graduate

This dissertation is structured as three essays on various aspects of equity option introduction. Topics addressed include the relative predictability of introduction, the relationship between predictability of introduction and the price effect associated with introduction, and a comparison of the price response of optioned versus nonoptioned stocks to changes in dividends. Essay 1 involves use of firm-specific variables in a LOGIT model to allow assignment of a probability of equity option introduction. Two samples were developed: one of firms that were optioned, the other of firms which met the objective standards but were not optioned. A LOGIT model is used to assign a probability of optioning to each firm. A holdout sample is used to test the out-of-sample predictive power of the model. Firms were correctly classified as optioned or nonoptioned in about 85 percent of cases. Various researchers have detected abnormal positive returns associated with stock option introduction. In an efficient market context, this would indicate that option introduction is "good" news to financial markets. If optioning is predictable, stocks with a higher probability of optioning would be expected to show less price response when options are introduced. In Essay 2, the relationship between the probability of optioning and abnormal returns is tested using a standard event methodology. Utilizing nonparametric statistics, no significant differences were detected among abnormal returns of portfolios formed on the basis of probability of option introduction. Essay 3 compares abnormal returns of optioned and nonoptioned stocks around announced dividend changes. Two samples were obtained. Firms in the first (second) sample had significant dividend changes while options were (were not) available on their stocks. Standard event methodology is used to compare price responses of the two samples. If the price response of optioned stocks is less pronounced than the price response of nonoptioned stocks, this may indicate that optioned stocks are more efficiently priced. Reasons for this increased efficiency are examined in the study. Abnormal returns for the optioned sample were not significantly different from zero. Those for the nonoptioned sample were significantly different from zero for all event windows tested.

Informed traders trade options on underlying securities to lower transaction costs and increase financial leverage for price trend and variance strategies. Options markets play a significant role in price discovery by incorporating private information about future prices for an underlying security into option prices. I generate a new model-free volatility measure to calculate the "distance from arbitrage bounds" from minute-by-minute option series for the S&P 500 index and 30 individual underlying stocks. These iron butterfly arbitrage bounds (IBBs) use intraday call and put option prices from the Bloomberg database. Narrow and wide IBBs are expected to reveal the options market valuation of volatility by market participants. Data series is gathered by using successive one-minute intervals from the Bloomberg database. The data comprise the most recent bid and ask option prices and volumes. I collect S&P 500 index values and index options and use 30 underlying stock prices and option prices for the contracts that have the largest option trading volume during the sampling interval. These bid and ask prices reflect the information generated by intraday price pressures implied by S&P 500 index options or stock options. Consistent with the option micro-structure literature, I find that the IBB measure for actively traded stock options attains its highest level immediately after the open of the market, declines steadily throughout the first trading hour and remains relatively stable until market close. However, index IBBs behave differently. S&P 500 index option IBB attains its lowest level during the first hour of the trading day, then increases and remains relatively stable until market close. I present new evidence regarding the dynamic relation between stock returns and innovations in expected volatility by using the minute-by-minute change in implied volatility (IV) as a proxy. Unlike the relationship between individual stock returns and their respective changes in implied idiosyncratic volatility, I find that all the coefficients on the market volatility index (VIX) term are negative and significant. Therefore, the evidence supports the explanation that the negative relationship between stock returns and expected volatility innovations is primarily related to the systematic component of the expected volatility. I also test whether narrow and wide IBB values capture incremental information to explain the return-volatility relationship. Results indicate that neither narrow IBB nor wide IBB values provide additional information beyond that provided by VIX and IV. The results are robust to five-minute and ten-minute sampling frequencies.