Graduation date: 1983

Graduation date: 1982

xii, 59 p. : ill., col. maps. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / Continued federal and state policies aimed at reducing the livelihood of undocumented workers may force these populations to move to other locations. With the loss of undocumented workers and their families, Oregon can expect to see losses in population, employment, industrial production and state and local revenue. As undocumented populations are unevenly distributed across the state similarly to Hispanic populations, this study expects six counties, Hood River, jefferson, Malheur, Marion, Morrow and Umatilla, will see more than an eightpercent population loss, double the expected state loss rate, and proportionally greater economic losses. By estimating the undocumented population in each of Oregon's 36 counties, this study further details potential economic losses in the six Oregon counties with concentrated Hispanic, and consequently, undocumented populations. / Committee in Charge: Dr. Laura Leete, Chair; Dr. Jean Stockard; Dr. Daniel HoSang

The subject of this thesis was chosen from both a professional and an academic interest in the economic development of Oregon. Prompted by proposals made to the Oregon Legislature to initiate various forms of industrial subsidy programs to disperse economic growth and population away from congested areas, this research effort seeks to provide an evaluative analysis of the effectiveness of subsidy techniques in influencing industrial location and stimulating a sustained growth process in less developed areas. Research was undertaken in two primary subjects: 1) theory of regional economic development and the effects of subsidies on the growth process; and 2) empirical evidence of the effectiveness of industrial subsidy programs on regional development in other areas. Information was obtained from the following resources: The author’s library of reference literature on economic development and the bibliographies contained therein; Professional organizations, particularly the library of the American Industrial Development Council, as well as requests for literature from various members of those organizations; University library resources, including: Bureaus of Business Research, Bibliography, 1968-1970; Public Affairs Information Service, 1965-Jan. 3, 1973; Business Periodicals Index, 1965-1972; Journal of Economic Articles, 1967-Dec., 1972; Index to Economic Literature, 1966-1970; U.S. Library of Congress, National Union Catalog, 1960-1972; Council of Planning Librarians, Bibliographies; Colorado University, Public Catalog of Norlin Library holdings; Colorado Technical Reference Center. Using information obtained from these and other sources, a method was obtained for defining and measuring the economic and social welfare objectives of a regional development program in Oregon. Geographical patterns of economic health indicators were mapped for the state This is followed by an analysis of various types of subsidies and their effects on resource allocation and gross output. It was found that wage subsidies offer optimum benefits for labor-surplus areas with less distortion of capital efficiency than do capital or price subsidies. Justification for subsidies was found to be greatest using social benefits as criteria rather than maximization of economic output. The influence of industrial subsidies on location decisions is then examined. Following an analysis of effects of subsidies on the cost structure and profit potential for the firm, financial and tax incentives are separately reviewed in case histories of subsidy programs. It was found that capital investment subsidies have had considerably more location influence than tax subsidies. In any case, however, subsidies were determined to be marginal, rather than decisive, locational factors with more basic economic criteria, such as labor availability and market access, being more influential. Finally, cost/benefit considerations for subsidy programs in Oregon are reviewed. External effects of industrialization on rural economies are considered, and the growth center concept for maximization of economic gain is examined. Fiscal costs for state and local governments are explored for different types of subsidy programs. The conclusion is reached that programs can be devised which minimize fiscal costs while offering maximum potential economic and social benefits.

Agricultural economists have devoted considerable attention to the financial stress situation of agricultural producers. Many studies have been conducted in various regions of the U.S. in an attempt to better understand the causes of the problem. The costs associated with farm financial stress imply corresponding benefits to be realized by its reduction. Benefits of studying and resolving farm financial stress reach beyond the farms and ranches to many related sectors such as rural communities, agribusinesses, and lending institutions. The specific hypothesis tested in this thesis is as follows: some but not all farms and ranches which have undergone serious financial stress in the early part of the 1980's in Oregon can be assisted in withstanding fluctuations in economic conditions by adopting specific strategies which promote financial stability and profitability. One of the specific objectives of this thesis was to evaluate the level of financial stress for two different agricultural production units in Oregon under differing leverage positions, and macroeconomic conditions. The production units selected for study were a cattle ranch and a wheat farm, based on their relative importance to Oregon. This first objective was satisfied through analysis of a baseline scenario, which was essentially a continuation of current conditions. Debt levels and growth rates were then altered to reflect the desired study conditions. Changing and considering three leverage ratios (20%, 40%, and 70%) and three sets of macroeconomic conditions (baseline, pessimistic, and optimistic) allowed studying of nine alternative situations to the base firm type or a total of 18 alternatives. Analysis of these different alternative production units was accomplished through a deterministic computer-based simulation model. The model simulates the financial structure and performance of a farm business over a transition period of four years with emphasis placed on the financial transactions of the firm. These transactions include purchases and sales of farm assets, financing terms, debt management, cash flows, tax obligations, consumption levels, and growth rates. The computer-based model made necessary calculations of cash flows and changes in financial statements to derive the ratios used for financial analysis over the planning horizon of four years beyond the present input case and is deterministic in the sense that all essential variables are entered by the researcher. Output from this model includes a set of coordinated financial statements for the firm over the planning horizon: a balance sheet, an income statement, statements for changes in net worth, flow of funds statement, and a fund availability report. The model also calculates profitability, liquidity, and solvency ratios used in financial ratio analysis which are provided on a summary sheet. These statements and reports are provided on an annual basis; thus, financial information is provided on yearly changes in financial position over the four year horizon. Another objective of this thesis was to evaluate various policy and management strategies designed to reduce financial stress. This objective was achieved by analysis of various scenarios designed to reduce stress simultaneously with the baseline case, which served for comparison. The specific scenarios considered were: 35% reduction of debt, 35% reduction of interest rates, two year deferral of debt, sales of 35% of total assets with no lease back, sales of 35% of total assets with lease back arrangements, and an infusion of equity capital equal to 35% of total debt. Results from this analysis were intended to show what, if any, courses of action could be pursued by agricultural firm managers and policy makers to reduce farm financial stress. The best test of the ability of these scenarios to reduce financial stress occurred in application to the high leverage wheat farm situations, as these were the cases with the most financial stress. Appropriate programs could be adopted to strengthen the financial position of the farm; in the case of low liquidity, asset sales-lease back; in cases of low solvency, equity infusions; and in circumstances where profitability needs to be enhanced, interest reductions would be the best choice. The results also seemed to suggested that public programs can maintain current levels of financial performance for producers under financial stress but do little to improve those positions. / Graduation date: 1988