Demand for organic food products has grown at rates as high as 20% since the 1990s. Organic grains compose 11% of total organic food demand, and are used in livestock production which represents 43% of organic food demand. Though the demand for organic grains is arguably increasing, domestic production of organic grains is lagging. Producers in the U.S. are hesitant to transition to certified organic grain production for a number of reasons. However, a lack of information pertaining to the organic grains market is one of the most prominent barriers to entry. One method that may provide insight into marketing opportunities available to organic grain producers is to create classifications of organic grain buyers. These classifications may allow for the comparison of business demographics, perceptions of the organic grain market, relationship formation and maintenance factors, and characteristics of purchasing agreements across buyer classifications. These comparisons would allow producers to identify potential marketing opportunities by providing insight regarding types of assistance offered by buyers, how to form a relationship with buyers, types of purchasing agreements used, and purchasing agreement characteristics and requirements. Producers would then be able to identify appropriate buyers for their respective situations based on times contracts are signed, payment timing, storage and transportation requirements, and the amount of organic practice documentation buyers require. Similar classifications have been proposed for organic producers, but, to date, no such classification exists for organic buyers. This work proposes two classifications of organic buyers. First, a classification of committed organic buyers versus pragmatic organic/pragmatic conventional buyers is motivated by similar classifications of organic producers found in previous works. Secondly, this work also introduces a classification of buyers that are sellers versus end-users of organic grains. Literature has suggested that the type of organic grain buyer (seller or end-user) gives rise to differences in functionality regarding interacting with producers and purchasing agreement characteristics. A sample of 45 organic grain buyers in the Midwest was utilized to characterize business demographics, perceptions of the organic grain market, relationship factors, and purchasing agreement characteristics on the two aforementioned categorization of organic grain buyers. A mixed methodology approach was utilized involving data collection via phone interviews and an online questionnaire. Initial data analysis suggests that data from the two data collection methods statistically differed in some measures of business demographics, perceptions of the organic grains market, and types of assistance offered to producers. This suggests that buyers responding to a phone interview may be more willing to assist producers and have more positive perceptions of the organic market. Thus, each analysis separates phone interview and online questionnaire responses. Due to a small sample size, means comparisons were utilized for the proposed categorizations of buyers. Data were found to not adhere to the normality assumption, requiring the use of nonparametric methods. A Chi-square test was conducted for binary variables, while a Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was utilized for continuous and categorical variables. Results suggest that committed organic grain buyers are smaller in terms of gross sales than pragmatic organic/conventional buyers. Fewer committed organic grain buyers require the grain supplier to pay for grain delivery when compared to pragmatic buyers. Both the comparison of committed organic versus pragmatic buyers and the comparison of sellers versus end-users suggest that there is a bifurcation in organic grain buyers, indicating potential conventionalization within the organic grain industry. Additionally, both categorizations also indicate the buyers anticipate future supply and demand to both increase, but do not expect future price to increase. Thus, it can be concluded that buyers believe future supply will increase at a greater rate than demand, decreasing price. Alternatively, buyers may expect future supply and demand to grow proportionally, keeping price constant. Though the sample is representative of the population of buyers present, the small sample size suggests results of this work should be interpreted with caution.

Tyrimo objektas – ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos veiksniai. Tyrimo tikslas – išnagrinėjus ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos pokyčius, identifikuoti jų gamybos, perdirbimo ir realizavimo problemas bei pasiūlyti sprendimo būdus. Tyrimo uždaviniai: 1) identifikuoti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų rinkų ypatumus, ištirti jų tarpusavio ryšius; 2) nustatyti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos veiksnius; 3) išanalizuoti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos pokyčius Lietuvoje; 4) identifikuoti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų gamybos, perdirbimo ir realizavimo problemas bei pasiūlyti jų sprendimo būdus. Tyrimo metodai: mokslinės literatūros ir juridinių dokumentų analizė ir sintezė; ekonominiai statistiniai duomenų rinkimo ir analizės metodai; grupavimo, palyginimo, grafinio vaizdavimo būdai, anketinė apklausa. Tyrimo rezultatai: • pirmoje darbo dalyje identifikuotos trys pagrindinės ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų rinkos, nustatyti jų tarpusavio ryšiai, ištirti pagrindiniai veiksniai, skatinantys perėjimą nuo tradicinės prie ekologinės gamybos, suklasifikuoti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos veiksniai; • antroje darbo dalyje išanalizuoti politiniai, ekonominiai ir kiti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos pokyčiai ir jų veiksniai Lietuvoje 2004 – 2009 m.; • trečioje darbo dalyje, atlikus anketinę apklausą, išanalizuoti ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų pasiūlos veiksniai, identifikuotos pagrindinės ekologiškų grūdų ir jų produktų gamybos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Research object – organic grain and their products supply factors. Research aim – examination of organic grain and their products supply changes, identification of their production, processing and marketing problems and suggesting solutions. Objectives: 1. to identify the characteristics of organic grain and their products markets, explore the links between them; 2. to identify factors of organic grains and products supply; 3. to analyze changes of organic grain and their products supply in Lithuania; 4. to identify problems of production, processing the organic grain and their products and to suggest solutions. Research methods: analysis and synthesis of scientific literature and legal documents; economic statistical data collection and analysis; clustering, comparison, and visualization techniques, social survey. Survey results: • there were identified three main organic grain and organic grain products markets and explored links between them, explored main determinants, that promotes the transition from conventional to organic production, classified determinants of organic grain and their products supply in the first chapter; • there were analyzed political, economic and other changes and determinants of organic grain and their products supply in Lithuania in 2004 – 2009 in the second chapter; • in the third chapter, after carrying the social survey, there were analyzed the determinants of supply or organic grain and their products, identified the main problems of... [to full text]

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Hikaru H. Peterson / Organic has become a familiar term in agriculture, usually bringing to mind the phrases “no chemicals” and “large premiums.” While organic products usually command a substantial price premium over their conventional counterparts, the determinants of this premium are generally unknown. The lack of literature covering organic prices is not from a lack of interest but from a lack of information and data for organic commodities. This study examines two aspects of organic grain prices in an attempt to learn more about the organic grain sector. The first objective was to identify determinants of organic premiums received by members of a Kansas organic grain cooperative. Six different grains along with alfalfa hay were examined using hedonic models and bootstrapping statistical techniques. Findings of the hedonic analyses are as follows. Dairy farms seemed to pay a lower premium for feed grade corn and hard red winter wheat compared to other types of buyers. Buyers located in Kansas tended to provide a smaller premium than buyers located elsewhere. Early contract periods produced a smaller premium than later periods. Shipment timing was much the same, with fourth quarter shipments receiving the largest premium. Additionally, each subsequent contract year resulted in a larger premium. If the cooperative had arranged shipment of the commodity, a lower premium was acquired. Finally, longer contract lengths resulted in a larger premium. The second part of this study examined various price series of organic and conventional commodities to determine if the two markets were related. Using vector autoregressive models, cointegration and causality tests were conducted, and speed of adjustment to a shock in the long run equilibrium and exogeneity were also examined. Of the 43 pairs of organic and conventional price series tested, 29 were found to be cointegrated. Of those cointegrated pairs, 11 causal relationships were found. Five of these causal relationships indicated that the conventional commodity prices led the organic. There were six instances where the organic commodity prices were found to lead the conventional. For most causal relationships, about 5% of the adjustment to a shock, or divergence from long run equilibrium occurred in one week.