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Práce vychází z potřeby reformy důchodového systému v České republice. Měnící se demografický vývoj nutí vlády zabývat se jejím řešením. Prognózy varují před rostoucím počtem populace v důchodovém věku,kvůli nízké porodnosti a prodlužující se délce života. Práce se zabývá také dalšími riziky, které nutí k reformě důchodů. Nahlíží na ekonomické souvislosti mezi současným systémem PAYG a fondovým systémem. Žádný z nich ve své absolutní podobě nepřináší komplexní řešení s ohledem na pokrytí všech rizik. Důsledkem toho mají vlády snahu vytvářet systémy penzijního zabezpečení, které tvoří více pilířů, čili kombinací státní garance určitého minimálního důchodu a fondového systému.

This Thesis discusses the pension system issues in the Czech Republic depending on a demographic situation. The first chapter affords the historic review of pension systems and shows information concerning actual applications. The second chapter is aimed at the financial variations of the pension system. The third chapter is focused on a basic description of the contemporary pension system in the Czech Republic and historic evolution as well. In the fourth chapter, there is made an excurse throught the reformed pension systems abroad. This is provided in case of post-communist countries as well as the Latin America`s country. In the fifth chapter, there is realized an appropriate analysis of financing the actual pension system in dependence on a population evolution. There is proved an indefensibility of PAYG model through the use of a mathematic model. At the begining of the closing chapter there is a conception of each political party. The second part of its is represented by own summary and conception of this "stalemate" situation.

This thesis focuses on the analysis of non-traditional approach to reforming the pay-as-you-go pension system by introducing a link between the number of children and the amount of pension, which is known as the Children PAYG. An analysis of the concept in general and of specific proposals for reform with its application is performed in the analytical part. Attention is also given to related topics. One of them is to assess the impact of the pension system on fertility. Further issue is to examine the costs of raising a child that are shared by parents and society as a whole. One of the main outputs of this thesis is a summary of positive and negative features of the Children PAYG concept. The concept is considered applicable in domestic conditions based on this analysis. Finally there are two recommended approaches to the Czech pension reform, the first one is based on the concept of Children PAYG with limiting the role of family policy, the second one is based on maintaining current pay-as-you-go system in a limited form of so-called flat-rate pension with strengthening the role of family policy in financing the costs of raising children.

For an apparatus as big as the pension system, the financial stability is essential. An important feature in the existing pension system is the balance mechanism, which secures the stability of the system. The balance ratio is obtained by dividing the assets by the liabilities. When this ratio drops below 1.0000, it triggers the so-called automatic balancing. While the existing pension system has achieved its goal of being financially stable, it has become clear that the indexation of the pensions during balancing periods has properties that are not optimal. On a short-term perspective the income pension system is exposed to the risk of reacting with a lag, or reacting unnecessarily strong. This gave rise to a new legislative proposal, issued by the government. The goal of the proposal is to obtain a smoother and more up-to-date development of the income pension, i.e. a shorter lag period, without jeopardizing the financial stability. In addition to this it is also desirable to simplify and improve the existing calculation methods. In order to compare the existing calculation methods in the pension system with the new legislative proposal, a simplified model of the existing pension system and the modified version of it, are created. The results of this study shows that the new legislative proposal decreases the volatility in the pensions and it avoids the deepest valleys in the balance ratio. The development of the pension disbursements in the new system has a higher correlation with the development of the average pension-qualifying income than in the current system. Moreover, the results show that the new system has a shorter lag period which makes the income pension system more up- to-date with the current economic and demographic situation. The financial stability is still contained, and the new system also handles variations in the inflation better than the current system / För en apparat så stor som pensionssystemet är den finansiella stabiliteten viktigt. En betydelsefull egenskap i det befintliga systemet är balansmekanismen som säkrar stabiliteten i systemet. Balanstalet beskrivs som pensionssystemets tillgångar dividerat med skulderna. När detta förhållande faller under 1,0000 utlöser det den så kallade automatiska balanseringen. Trots att det nuvarande pensionssystemet har uppnått sitt mål med att vara finansiellt stabilt har det visat sig att indexeringen av pensionerna under balanseringsperioder har egenskaper som inte är optimala. På kort sikt finns det en risk att inkomstpensionssystemet reagerar med en viss tidsfördröjning, eller att den reagerar onödigt starkt. Detta gav upphov till ett nytt lagförslag som är utfärdat av regeringen. Målet med förslaget är att få en jämnare och mer aktuell utveckling av inkomstpensionerna, dvs. en kortare eftersläpningsperiod utan att äventyra stabiliteten i systemet. Utöver detta är det även önskvärt att förenkla och förbättra de nuvarande beräkningsmetoderna. För att kunna jämföra de befintliga beräkningsmetoderna i pensionssystemet med det nya lagförslaget har en förenklad modell av den befintliga pensionssystemet samt den modifierade versionen skapats. Det framgår tydligt av resultaten från denna studie att det nya lagförslaget minskar volatiliteten i pensionerna och undviker de djupaste dalarna i balanstalet. Utvecklingen hos pensionsutbetalningarna i det nya systemet har en högre korrelation med den genomsnittliga pensionsgrundande inkomsten jämfört med det nuvarande systemet. Utöver detta visar resultaten att det nya systemet har kortare eftersläpningsperiod vilket gör inkomstpensionssystemet mer aktuellt. Den finansiella stabiliteten bibehålls och det nya systemet hanterar även fluktuationer i inflationen på ett bättre sätt än i det nuvarande systemet.

Master thesis provides an overview of demographic development and its relations to the sustainability of the pension systems. The theoretical part of the thesis focuses on the description of demographical processes and its main characteristics since the year 1989 and prognoses of its future development in Czech Republic. Later on, the theoretical knowledge gained in the first part is interconnected with the description of the pension system, as defined in Czech Republic and as valid since 1st of January, 2013. In practical part of the thesis the main focus is given to the calculations of sustainability of the pension system. The calculations are performed at the model situation, based at the pension system as defined in Czech Republic, but adjusted for some simplifying facts and premises. The calculations are provided for few different situations, when the revenues and expenses of the first pillar of the pension system are calculated. Based on the development of revenues and expenses, the percentage of people, that are supposed to enter the second, fully funded, pillar is calculated. The percentage is calculated in situation when the revenues are equal to the expenses and therefore the PAYG part of the pension system is sustainable in the long run.

Diplomová práce dle zkušeností vybraných zemí naznačuje hlavní body, na které by se měla zaměřit penzijní reforma v ČR a zároveň vyzdvihuje pozitivní stránky a upozorňuje na problémy důchodových systémů států, jenž jsem si zvolila. Vybrala jsem si důchodový systém čtyř zemí, jmenovitě důchodový systém Polska, Maďarska, Slovenska a Švýcarska. Hlavním důvodem výběru bylo geografické hledisko, dále skutečnost, že všechny země již uskutečnily penzijní reformu a u Švýcarka navíc fakt, že jeho důchodové pojištění je označováno jako ideální prototyp.

This thesis deals with analysis of pensions system of European Union with the focus on demographic development and situation on labour market. It deals with historic development of pension systems and various classifications of these systems. Consequently, it looks into theoretical advantages of PAYG systems and fund-schemes in terms of demographic development and labour market. In the empirical part, this thesis analyzes choosen pension scheme of European Union in the criteria of social security, financial sustainability and microeconomic efficiency. The results of the analysis imply that the Netherlands' pension scheme might be the best, because it performed well in all criteria. The work is then trying to answer the question, whether the fund-scheme is better than PAYG system when it comes to meeting the challenges of ageing population. This thesis finds little evidence that the fund-scheme could cope better with the challenges than the PAYG system and therefore this thesis concludes that fund-scheme is not a solution to the demographic development.

The thesis deals with the major reform of the Czech pension system in 2013 which introduces a new pension pillar, the Capitalization pillar. This reform has introduced a new possibility for consumers to save up for their retirement. Along with the first Pay-As-You-Go pension pillar and voluntary pension savings pillar it constitutes a new three pillar pension system in the Czech Republic. The second part of this thesis focuses on calculations which should answer the question: "For whom is the opt-out from the PAYG pillar to the Capitalization pillar profitable?"