Thesis (M.A.)--Guo li zheng zhi da xue. / Cover title. Reproduced from typescript. Bibliography: leaves 115-119.

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A six-month report to the National Science Foundation on the project "Analysis of the world oil market", Contract no. SIA75-00739

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The use of oil and natural gas for the production of chemicals is of recent origin, yet petrochemicals have already reached a position of major importance. Investment in the industry is growing at an extremely rapid rate, both in the developed and underdeveloped countries. In this study the distribution of petrochemical production is examined in Western Europe, Japan and the United States. There are two main aims, to explain the distribution of the industry and to demonstrate the application of four methods of geographic analysis. Three of these methods, the examination of the historical development of activity, the analysis of the factors influencing the location of activity and the description of the major regions of activity, have been widely used in economic geography. The fourth, the comparison of the costs of production and transport involved in locating activities in various regions, has not been used, yet merits greater attention. In Western Europe, a historical analysis of the petrochemical industry shows that the presence of an old established coal-chemicals industry has had a significant effect on subsequent developments. Three other factors, the influence of raw materials availability, the influence of markets, and governmental action have also affected the location of petrochemical plants. Japanese petrochemical plants are entirely located on the coasts, most of the raw materials for the industry being imported. The plants fall into a number of distinct groups, which are described regionally. The United States also has several major regions of petrochemical production around coastal refining ports, at inland "gateway" points, in coal-chemicals centres, and on the Gulf Coast oil and gas fields. Economic factors which have led to the concentration of production in the Gulf Coast region are analysed according to the comparative cost method, which is found to be effective. Comparative cost analysis provides a framework onto which empirical studies may be built. Thus it may be possible to construct a theory of location around this and similar methods. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

Information systems analysis was done for the computerization of an existing long range financial planning model, in case study form. The model, that of Lockheed Petroleum Services Limited, was analyzed and recommendations for model sophistication were made. Computerization was justified by projected cost reduction and several other advantages which were judged to outweigh the disadvantages of computerization. Implications of computerization and difficulties of information systems analysis were described. Results of the study were the design of a detailed algorithm and of ancillary documents making future computer programming, verification, and implementation easily achievable. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Prorationing is sometimes implemented when the producing capacity of an area exceeds the demand for that output at a price which many producers feel to be "fair" -when this situation occurs the price of course comes under pressure as producers compete with one another to sell their oil. It is in order to avoid such a possibility that operators are sometimes successful in persuading the government having jurisdiction to assume the responsibility of setting up and policing a prorationing plan. Under such a scheme the total demand for crude oil from the area, at the desired price, is alloted among all the producers of the area on a basis related to some measure of each producer's capacity - no producer has any Incentive to lower his price as he would not be awarded any larger share of the market for so doing. In simple words then the name of the game Is price fixing. Since December 1950 such a scheme for "prorationing production to market demand" has been in force in the province of Alberta and is administered by a board created by the provincial government. This practice of prorationing has had a great influence on the manner in which the Canadian oil industry has developed, not only in the province of Alberta (which is by far the largest producer of crude) but in the other oil producing provinces as well (these being mainly B.C., Sask., and Man.). It has in fact encouraged large amounts of excess expenditure to take place in the development of Canada's crude oil resource. Prorationing has encouraged this over expenditure in two ways - first through the maintenance of an artifically high price for crude oil which has encouraged the development of high cost sources at the expense of already existing low cost ones that must as a result suffer "shut-in" capacity, and secondly as a consequence of the regulations governing the method by which the demand is apportioned which has led to the over drilling of oil fields. A third cause of over expenditure have been field regulations outside of the prorationing plan such as provincial legislation dealing with minimum allowed well spacing, the manner in which maximum allowable rates of production for wells have been calculated, and the manner in which lease rights are allowed to be held. Our estimate is that poor field regulations, both inside and outside of prorationing, have led to excess expenditures of some $730 million in the period 1947 to 1965 inclusive. Over expenditure due to prorationing itself has amounted to some $1,000 million. Extensive amendments to the prorationing regulations in 1964 improved these markedly and largely removed them as a source of future waste. Prorationing itself however and the regulations governing the holding of leases remain, and so long as they do serious over expenditures will continue to be made. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

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