The main focus of this thesis is to effectively estimate levels of peak ground acceleration (PGA) during a seismic event for a given site. This will be achieved by applying regression analysis via a mixed model methodology to data collected from previously recorded seismic events collected from the PEER Strong Motion Database using a program written in MATLAB. The basic mixed model combines both fixed and random effect terms. Two models are analyzed and compared based on varying combinations of predictor variables, such as magnitude, distance, shear wave velocity, and site class. While the primary objective of this thesis solely examines the modeling of PGA, the same methodology can be applied in predicting other ground motion intensity parameters such as Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) or the spectral ordinate at a given vibration period.

The purpose of this study is to develop probabilistic hazard maps for EskiSehir including &lsquo / Peak Ground Acceleration&rsquo / values for 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year and 100-year periods at different site classes. A seismotectonic map has been prepared in the Geographical Information Systems environment by compiling instrumental seismicity and neotectonic data for the study area. The seismic sources have been defined spatially in six areal zones, characterized by a commonly used recurrence law and a maximum magnitude value. Four attenuation relationships have been selected being one of them totaly developed from the strong-motion records of Turkey. After the implementation of a seismic hazard model by using SEISRISK software, the probabilistic seismic hazard curves and maps were developed based on the selected attenuation relationships, at &lsquo / rock&rsquo / and &lsquo / soil&rsquo / sites, with a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50-year and 100-year periods. At rock sites the highest levels of hazard were calculated based on the predictive relationship of Abrahamson and Silva (1996), whereas the lowest ones based on the one of Boore et al. (1996). On the other hand the highest hazard levels were determined at soil sites based on the attenuation relationship of Ambraseys et al. (1996), whereas the lowest ones based on the one of Boore et al. (1997). For EskiSehir, the peak ground acceleration values calculated based on attenuation relationship by Boore et al. (1997) were found to be applicable for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 and 100 years, taking into consideration the fact that a considerable portion of the city is founded over alluviums.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22259号 / 理博第4573号 / 新制||理||1657(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 James Mori, 教授 久家 慶子, 教授 岩田 知孝 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

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