Lithium is a highly interesting metal, in part due to the increasing interest in lithium-ion batteries. Several recent studies have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production can meet an increasing demand, especially from the transport sector, where lithium-ion batteries are the most likely technology for electric cars. The reserve and resource estimates of lithium vary greatly between different studies and the question whether the annual production rates of lithium can meet a growing demand is seldom adequately explained. This study presents a review and compilation of recent estimates of quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discusses the uncertainty and differences between these estimates. Also, mathematical curve fitting models are used to estimate possible future annual production rates. This estimation of possible production rates are compared to a potential increased demand of lithium if the International Energy Agency’s Blue Map Scenarios are fulfilled regarding electrification of the car fleet. We find that the availability of lithium could in fact be a problem for fulfilling this scenario if lithium-ion batteries are to be used. This indicates that other battery technologies might have to be implemented for enabling an electrification of road transports. / Stand

Lithium and neodymium are two critical materials in our modern society, many technological solutions depend on them. Lithium is used in batteries, which are used in cars and portable electronics. Neodymium, which is a rare earth element, is mainly used in permanent magnets which are used in smartphones, hard disc drives and turbines. There are many reports regarding the availability of the metals, with different results. The available data on the reserves varies considerably, from the few sources there are. In this report, based on geological availability, forecasts are done to investigate how much the production can increase and when it will peak. The prognoses are based on historic production to which different functions, the logistic, gompertz and richards, are fitted with the least square method. The production will peak in the end of this century and in the beginning of the next century for both metals. The production of lithium does not seem to be sufficient for both producing electric and hybrid cars with only li-ion batteries along with fusion. The neodymium production will be sufficient for producing a lower percentage of direct driven wind turbines and electric cars with NiMH batteries. Lithium in seawater is sometimes considered a future source. Since the lithium concentration is low, large volumes have to be processed in order to extract a reasonable amount of lithium. Currently it is not economic to extract lithium from seawater.