No description available.

Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 35-37).

The degree of inequality present in the distribution of income may be measured with a gini coefficient. If the distribution is found to empirically fit a particular distribution function, then the gini coefficient may be derived from the mean value of income and the variation from the mean. For the purpose of this study, the Beta II distribution was used as the function which most closely approximates the actual distribution of income. The Beta II function provides the skewness which is normally found in an income distribution as well as fulfilling other required characteristics. The degree of inequality was approximated for the distribution of income from all sources and from ten separate components of income sources in constant (1973) dollars. Next, permanent income from all sources and from the ten component sources was estimated based upon actual income using the double exponential smoothing forecasting technique. The estimations of permanent income, which can be thought of as expected income, were used to derive measures of permanent income inequality. The degree of actual income inequality and the degree of permanent income inequality, both being represented by the hypothetical gini coefficient , were compared and tested for statistical differences. For the entire period under investigation, 1952 to 1979, the net effect was no statistically significant difference between permanent and actual income inequality, as was expected. However, significant differences were found in comparing year by year. Relating permanent income inequality to the underlying, structural inequality present in a given distribution, conclusions were drawn regarding the role of mobility in its ability to alter the actual distribution of income. The impact of business fluctuations on the distribution of permanent income relative to the distribution of actual income was studied in an effort to reach general conclusions. In general, cyclical upswings tend to reduce permanent inequality relative to actual inequality. Thus, despite the empirically supported relationship between income inequality and economic growth, it would appear that unexpected growth tends to favor a more equal distribution of income.

Keynes (1936) first brought up the relationship between consumption and national income, but Kuznets¡¦observation about the U.S. data was not supported by the Keynes consumption function form. So there are many macroeconomic theories trying to explain the phenomenon observed by Kuznets. This paper uses the way developed by Campbell (1987) to test the permanent income hypothesis suggested by Friedman with Taiwan data. In addition, this paper uses the stochastic cointegration developed by Harris, McCabe, and Leybourne (2002) to re-examine the relationship between consum-ption and national income because the traditional non-stochastic cointegration assumes that the error term is linear and homogeneous, which may be too strong to fit the real world. Besides, this paper compares the nonstochastic cointegration with the stochastic cointegration, and the evidence founded is that the permanent income hypothesis is not supported by Taiwan data with these two methods.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2007. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains x, 165 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 162-165).

In this paper, a model to estimate personal savings is constructed using an estimate of permanent income. Traditional approaches to studying aggregate personal savings depend on many independent variables that serve as the determinants of personal saving. Because some of the determinants used in such approaches can be difficult to obtain, estimating aggregate saving in this manner can be time-consuming and arduous. Using an estimate of permanent income based on Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), this paper creates a model to estimate personal savings and tests the model by examining the Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) that is derived from it. Permanent income was estimated using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) method and aggregate personal savings is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical evidence reveals that savings estimates and marginal propensities to save are consistent with results obtained studies using conventional approaches except during periods in which a wealth effect occurs. During such periods, additional variables need to be added to the model to account for a wealth effect. This analysis therefore serves to further validate the PIH and shows that it can be applied to studying household savings as well as consumption. / Master of Arts

The principle aim of this thesis is to construct a consumption function for Turkey for policy analysis using the annual State Planning Organisation (SPO) time-series data. This study commences from 1962 and extends until the end of 1994, when a financial crisis occurred in Turkey. It attempts to analyse not only the decline in the private savings rate during the first half of the 1980s, but also the significant rise from 1986 onwards. The thesis starts with an introduction which explodes the main research objectives, considers the existing consumption theories and extentions, records the main data features to be explained, briefly overviews the modelling strategy and discusses the basic considerations of the research and gives the structure of thesis. A literature survey on the theory of consumption is given in Chapter 2. The LifeCycle/ Permanent-Income hypothesis is considered as central to the two mainstream approach. : the Euler approach and the solved-out approach. These approaches are further extended by considering uncertainty and precautionary saving, credit restrictions, saving and leisure. habit or costs of adjustments and the durability of goods, the role of assets and asset prices. financial liberalisation and demographic factors. Finally, comparisons between the two approaches arc made in the conclusion of that chapter. Theory can deliver concepts with permanent relationships in economics, but it should be supported by empirical findings, since theory alone is insufficient to determine the actual economic relationship. Hence, Chapter 3 focuses on theoretical and appl ied modelling issues to construct a theory-consistent, congruent and encompassing consumption function. Congruency implies that the empirical model matches the available evidence in al l measured attributes (i.e., it is consistent with the theory from which it was derived, has unexplained components that arc innovations against available information, has basic parameters that are constant, is data admissible, and where any conditioning variables are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest). Encompassing denotes that the model of interest can account for the result of rival models of the same phenomena. I also define structure as the set of invariant features of the economic mechanism. A parameter can be structural only if it is invariant for an extension of the sample period (constant), is invariant with respect to changes elsewhere in the economy (regime shifts), and is invariant over extensions of the information set (adding more variables). Chapter 4 examines the small-sample properties of the statistical methods used by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The informativeness of the data is investigated in an unrestricted Vector Auto-regression (VAR) with small-samples of noisy data combined with a high real growth rate and nominal inflation. This is to see how the relative drift dominates in explaining the informativeness of the data. The Monte results are summarised by using response surfaces to relate the biases to sample size. The ratio of standard deviations to standard errors in each equation is also analysed. The strong impacts of the system error variances in these response surfaces indicate the importance of high variances in VA Rs. Furthermore, I found noise, and a function of the signal to noise ratio. and cross-equation correlation had a large impact, but less effect from the relative drift. Chapter 5 presents an overview of the Turkish Economy, particularly during the sample period. by pointing out the lessons to be drawn from the stabilisation experiments and their effect on the private sector saving decision in Turkey. The aim of Chapter 6 is to get nominal housing wealth and housing price data from the available data, such as the nominal private disposable income. nominal private investment in the housing sector and the consumer price index, since housing wealth is claimed to be a major determinant of private savings in Turkey. Chapter 7 aims to reveal the problems of Turkish data by analysing the history of the Turkish a1ional Accounts to construct a data-base for estimating a consumption function for Turkey. GDP by expenditure is constructed from five different sources. Turkish accounting residuals are allocated by applying the linear regression approach. The results show that GDP-by-output is more reliable than the GDP-by-expenditure measure for Turkey. Chapter 8 is devoted to the time series modelling and evidence. Previous findings on consumption for Turkey have been formulated using conventional econometric techniques with a static estimation methodology within the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH). I adopted the equilibrium correction model (ECM) solved-out consumption function approach and tried to incorporate the effects of age. precautionary behaviour in the case of uncertainty, credit constraints, habits or costs of adjustments. and the durability of goods for developing belier understanding of private sector savings behaviour in Turkey. The modelling is based on the dynamic econometric methodology that involves the estimation of a general unrestricted model (GUM). a co-integration and long-run analysis, and the simplification of the GUM to a parsimonious dynamic model that is deduced by applying a sequential testing procedure. The final model is congruent: It matches the available evidence in all measured attributes and forecasts well, has white noise errors and constant parameters, and encompasses the VAR model equation as well as other specifications in previous models. Moreover, the model has a structural interpretation. The results of the final model reveal strong positive effects of the real interest rate. inflation and inflation uncertainty, a strong negative effect of population aged 15-44, a positive effect after one lag period of the change in the average propensity to consume. which represents the effects of expectations, habits or adjustment costs, in addition to the significant effect of the inverse of per capita Private Disposable Income and the change in housing wealth to income ra1io on the private average propensity to consume in Turkey. These findings offer an explana1ion for the salient features of the Turkish consumption pattern observed from 1he lime series data. These results also provide some policy implications such that inOation control should be strengthened and improved for consumption stabilisation. Furthermore. interest rate policy also has an important role to play in the savings process in Turkey. The research on small-sample properties of 1hc statistical methods by means of Monte Carlo Simulations strengthens the results of the empirical model. These. confirm the poor determination of intercepts in I(I) VARs, and the corresponding advantages of an equilibrium correction model formulation. Furthermore. the insignificance the of irrelevant dynamics should encourage model builders to use a dynamic econometric methodology to develop parsimonious models, such as used for building a consumption model for Turkey in this thesis.

De acordo com o trabalho de Brady (2008), mudanças estruturais na economia norte-americana que permitiram um aumento do crédito ao consumidor teriam tornado a suavização do consumo uma realidade. No entanto, ele estima um modelo de consumo levando em conta quebras estruturais encontradas nas séries do crescimento das variáveis, o que não implica, necessariamente, que essas quebras também estão presentes no modelo de consumo. Neste trabalho, utilizamos uma metodologia que permite a presença de regressores endógenos na equação de teste e procuramos as quebras diretamente no modelo de consumo. Os resultados indicam que o procedimento adotado por Brady (2008) não e adequado para determinar as datas das quebras do modelo de consumo. / According to Brady (2008), structural changes in the American economy that allowed an expansion of the consumer credit would have made consumption smoothing a reality. However, he estimates a model of consumption based on structural breaks found in the consumption and credit growth rates, which doesn\'t imply, necessarily, that those breaks are also present in the consumption\'s model. In this work, we use a methodology that is able to _nd multiple breaks when the regressors are endogenous and search the breaks directly in the consumption\'s model. Our results indicate that imposing the breaks as Brady (2008) did is not adequate to determine the break dates in the consumption\'s model.

Thesis (Ph.D.) - Carleton University, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references. Also available in electronic format on the Internet.

De acordo com o trabalho de Brady (2008), mudanças estruturais na economia norte-americana que permitiram um aumento do crédito ao consumidor teriam tornado a suavização do consumo uma realidade. No entanto, ele estima um modelo de consumo levando em conta quebras estruturais encontradas nas séries do crescimento das variáveis, o que não implica, necessariamente, que essas quebras também estão presentes no modelo de consumo. Neste trabalho, utilizamos uma metodologia que permite a presença de regressores endógenos na equação de teste e procuramos as quebras diretamente no modelo de consumo. Os resultados indicam que o procedimento adotado por Brady (2008) não e adequado para determinar as datas das quebras do modelo de consumo. / According to Brady (2008), structural changes in the American economy that allowed an expansion of the consumer credit would have made consumption smoothing a reality. However, he estimates a model of consumption based on structural breaks found in the consumption and credit growth rates, which doesn\'t imply, necessarily, that those breaks are also present in the consumption\'s model. In this work, we use a methodology that is able to _nd multiple breaks when the regressors are endogenous and search the breaks directly in the consumption\'s model. Our results indicate that imposing the breaks as Brady (2008) did is not adequate to determine the break dates in the consumption\'s model.