Shifts in species’ phenologies and phenological asynchronies between the interacting organisms have received a lot of attention in the context of climate change. Changes in temporal overlap between species, caused by phenological asynchrony, make species depending on one another become so separated in time that they can no longer interact. This may have important consequences both for single species, like fluctuations in abundances, and for the functioning of whole communities by creating mismatches between trophic levels and rearrangements of community structure. This thesis focuses on the impact of temperatures on spring timing and phenological synchrony in a herbivorous insect – host plant system, consisting of the orange tipbutterfly Anthocharis cardamines and five of its Brassicaceae host plant species. Paper I demonstrates that diapause duration and winter thermal conditions can determine the timing of spring emergence in the herbivore, and these traits may differ between species with different feeding strategies. In paper II we show that thermal reaction norms of post-winterdevelopment of A. cardamines display cogradient latitudinal variation.Paper III shows that temperature-mediated phenological plasticity of A. cardamines butterflies and a majority of the most used host plant species is similar within populations originating from different latitudes. Thus, the species’ timing appeared well conserved in response to thermal variation. In paper IV we explored the importance of the butterfly’s adult emergence and thermal conditions on the succeeding part of the butterfly’s life-cycle – larval development. The outcome from the interaction was examined for both the insect and the plant side. The degree in phenological overlap between the female butterflies and host plants as well as temperatures during larval development were found to influence larval development but had no effect on plant reproductive fitness. The four papers of the presented thesis demonstrate that developmental preadaptations, evolvedin a herbivore to maintain phenological synchrony with host plants across yearly variation of spring conditions, can prevent disruption of the interaction under a wide range of temperatures. This indicates that temporary constrained interactions are not always vulnerable to decoupling, particularly if they involve generalist strategy. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Submitted.</p> / Ekoklim

Le changement climatique continue d'affecter la dynamique des paysages forestiers à grande échelle. Cependant, il demeure incertain comment ces changements affecteront les forêts futures et en particulier les épidémies des insectes ravageurs forestiers. Le changement climatique affecte l’émergence des insectes, en perturbant notamment la synchronisation phénologique entre les insectes herbivores et leurs arbres hôtes. De telles perturbations peuvent avoir des conséquences importantes sur le moment de l’émergence, l'étendue et la gravité de l'épidémie. Cette étude vise à comprendre comment le changement climatique pourrait affecter la synchronie phénologique entre la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette (Choristoneura fumiferana), un défoliateur indigène, et ses espèces hôtes (Abies balsamea et Picea mariana) et comment cela pourrait affecter l'étendue des épidémies de la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette dans la région de la Côte-Nord au Québec, Canada. Nous avons exploré les effets de deux facteurs expérimentaux sur l'étendue des épidémies à l'aide d'un modèle de simulation stochastique spatialement explicite à base d’agents (MBA): (1) la température quotidienne représentée selon deux niveaux d'augmentation (+2°C et +4°C) relative à une base de référence 2016 et (2) la variation de la phénologie des arbres hôtes correspondant aux différents niveaux d'incertitude (SD) concernant le moment du débourrement des bourgeons. Nous avons évalué comment ces facteurs ont affecté la variation de l'étendue des épidémies de la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette et la complexité spatiale du patch épidémique sur un horizon de simulation de 20 ans. Nos résultats de simulation indiquent que la synchronisation phénologique arbres hôtes-insectes est fortement affectée par les changements de température, mais de manière non linéaire. Une augmentation de 2°C a permis de réduire l'étendue de l'épidémie en raison de la faible survie des larves, tandis qu'une augmentation de 4°C a entraîné une survie plus élevée des insectes et des épidémies plus importantes. Notre modèle peut aider à prévoir la dynamique future des forêts et faciliter l'élaboration de meilleures stratégies de gestion pour réduire l'effet des épidémies sur les paysages forestiers. / Climate change continues to affect forest landscape dynamics at a global scale. However, it remains uncertain how these changes will affect future forests and in particular outbreaks of forest insect pests. Climate change can affect outbreaking insects by disrupting phenological synchrony between herbivorous insects and their host trees. Such disruptions can have important consequences for outbreak timing, extent, and severity. This study aims to understand how climate change could affect the phenological synchrony between the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), a native outbreaking defoliator, and its host trees (Abies balsamea and Picea mariana), and how this might affect the extent of spruce budworm outbreaks in the Côte-Nord region in Quebec, Canada. We explored the effects of two experimental factors on outbreak extent using a spatially explicit stochastic agent-based simulation model (ABM): (1) daily temperature represented as two levels of increase (+2°C and +4 °C) relative to a 2016 baseline, and (2) variation in host phenology represented as four different levels of uncertainty (SD) around the timing of budburst. We assessed how these factors affected variation in spruce budworm outbreak extent and outbreak patch spatial complexity over a 20-year simulation horizon. Our simulation results indicate that host trees-insect phenological synchrony is strongly affected by temperature changes, but in a non-linear way. An increase of 2°C was found to reduce outbreak extent due to poor larval survival, while an increase of 4°C resulted in higher insect survival and larger outbreaks. Our model can help to forecast future forest dynamics and facilitate the development of better management strategies to reduce the effect of outbreaks on forest landscapes.