Since the publication of the Framingham algorithm for heart disease, tools that predict disease risk have been increasingly integrated into standards of practice. The utility of algorithms at the population level can serve several purposes in health care decision-making and planning. A population-based risk prediction tool for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) can be particularly valuable for public health given the significant burden of diabetes and its projected increase in the coming years. This thesis addresses various aspects related to diabetes risk in addition to incorporating methodologies that advance the practice of epidemiology. The goal of this thesis is to demonstrate and inform the methods of population-based diabetes risk prediction. This is studied in three components: (I) development and validation of a diabetes population risk tool, (II) measurement and (III) obesity risk. Analytic methods used include prediction survival modeling, simulation, and multilevel growth modeling. Several types of data were analyzed including population healthy survey, health administrative, simulation and longitudinal data. The results from this thesis reveal several important findings relevant to diabetes, obesity, population-based risk prediction, and measurement in the population setting. In this thesis a model (Diabetes Population Risk Tool or DPoRT) to predict 10-year risk for diabetes, which can be applied using commonly-collected national survey data was developed and validated. Conclusions drawn from the measurement analysis can inform research on the influence of measurement properties (error and type) on modeling and statistical prediction. Furthermore, the use of new modeling strategies to model change of body mass index (BMI) over time both enhance our understanding of obesity and diabetes risk and demonstrate an important methodology for future epidemiological studies. Epidemiologists are in need of innovative and accessible tools to assess population risk making these types of risk algorithms an important scientific advance. Population-based prediction models can be used to improve health planning, explore the impact of prevention strategies, and enhance our understanding of the distribution of diabetes in the population. This work can be extended to future studies which develop tools for disease planning at the population level in Canada and to enrich the epidemiologic literature on modeling strategies.

Since the publication of the Framingham algorithm for heart disease, tools that predict disease risk have been increasingly integrated into standards of practice. The utility of algorithms at the population level can serve several purposes in health care decision-making and planning. A population-based risk prediction tool for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) can be particularly valuable for public health given the significant burden of diabetes and its projected increase in the coming years. This thesis addresses various aspects related to diabetes risk in addition to incorporating methodologies that advance the practice of epidemiology. The goal of this thesis is to demonstrate and inform the methods of population-based diabetes risk prediction. This is studied in three components: (I) development and validation of a diabetes population risk tool, (II) measurement and (III) obesity risk. Analytic methods used include prediction survival modeling, simulation, and multilevel growth modeling. Several types of data were analyzed including population healthy survey, health administrative, simulation and longitudinal data. The results from this thesis reveal several important findings relevant to diabetes, obesity, population-based risk prediction, and measurement in the population setting. In this thesis a model (Diabetes Population Risk Tool or DPoRT) to predict 10-year risk for diabetes, which can be applied using commonly-collected national survey data was developed and validated. Conclusions drawn from the measurement analysis can inform research on the influence of measurement properties (error and type) on modeling and statistical prediction. Furthermore, the use of new modeling strategies to model change of body mass index (BMI) over time both enhance our understanding of obesity and diabetes risk and demonstrate an important methodology for future epidemiological studies. Epidemiologists are in need of innovative and accessible tools to assess population risk making these types of risk algorithms an important scientific advance. Population-based prediction models can be used to improve health planning, explore the impact of prevention strategies, and enhance our understanding of the distribution of diabetes in the population. This work can be extended to future studies which develop tools for disease planning at the population level in Canada and to enrich the epidemiologic literature on modeling strategies.

A Grande Jazida Candiota, localizada no Município homônimo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, possui o maior depósito de carvão mineral do país. Desde 1970 em operação, a Usina Termoelétrica (UTE) Presidente Médici opera atualmente com potência nominal de 796 MW, distribuídas em cinco unidades. Na mesma região encontra-se em instalação a UTE Pampa Sul, com potência nominal de 340 MW, enquanto outras usinas, totalizando 2.527 MW, estão em distintas fases de licenciamento ambiental federal (LAF). Na presente pesquisa aplicou-se o modelo regulatório CALPUFF para avaliar o comportamento da dispersão dos poluentes atmosféricos das fontes fixas prognosticando a vulnerabilidade ambiental em termos de saturação da bacia atmosférica pela estimativa do Índice de Pressão Ambiental (IPA). Pela análise de agrupamento das respostas das simulações incidentes em receptores dos núcleos urbanos, estimou-se o risco populacional em termos de Fração de Ingestão (FI) de poluentes. Ao compararmos o cenário futuro com o atual, apesar de maior distribuição espacial das fontes de emissão e significativo acréscimo de potência, as taxas de emissão total de SO2 e MP para a área em estudo serão reduzidas entre os atuais 3.266,1 g SO2/s e 696,3 g MP/s para futuros 1.899,9 g SO2/s e 261,7 g MP/s. Contudo, para o poluente NOx esta tendência é inversa, passando da atual taxa de emissão de 375,8 g NOx/s para 1.423,9 g Nox/s. Para o período de 2011 a 2013, ao compararmos as médias anuais de poluentes entre o cenário atual e o futuro, contabilizou-se para a FI redução média de cerca de 15% de SO2 e 42% de MP, ao passo que houve elevação de cerca de 524% para NOx. Avaliando-se a distribuição espacial da poluição provocada pelos três compostos, aplicou-se o IPA para raios concêntricos de influência considerando as médias anuais, concluindo-se que o cenário futuro exerce menor saturação na bacia aérea e portanto menores índices de vulnerabilidade ambiental e risco populacional. A sensibilidade e performance do modelo foram avaliadas por métodos estatísticos, concluindo-se que o mesmo é aplicável pois atendem os critérios de fração de predição, tendência média e de espalhamento aleatório. / The Great Coal-Bed of Candiota, located in the homonymous municipality of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, has the largest coal deposit in the country. Since 1970 in operation, Presidente Médici Thermoelectric Power Plant (TPP) currently operates with nominal power of 796 MW, distributed in five units. In the same region, the Pampa Sul TPP is under construction, with a nominal power of 340 MW; while other plants, totaling 2,527 MW, are in different phases of federal environmental licensing (FEL). In the present research the CALPUFF regulatory model was applied to evaluate the behavior of the dispersion of the atmospheric pollutants emitted from fixed sources, predicting the environmental vulnerability in terms of saturation of the atmospheric basin by the estimation of the Environmental Pressure Index (EPI). The population risk in terms of Intake Fraction (IF) of pollutants was estimated by grouping the responses of the simulations incident on receptors of the urban nuclei. When comparing the future scenario with the current one, in spite of a greater spatial distribution of emission sources and a significant increase in power, the total emission rates of SO2 and MP for the study area will be reduced from the current 3,266.1 g SO2 / s 696.3 g MP / s for futures 1,899.9 g SO2 / s and 261.7 g MP / s. However, for the NOx pollutant this trend is reversed, from the current emission rate of 375.8 g NOx / s to 1423.9 g Nox / s. For the period from 2011 to 2013, when comparing the annual averages of pollutants between the current and future scenarios, an average reduction of about 15% of SO2 and 42% of MP was recorded for FI, while there was an increase of 524% for NOx. The EPI was applied to concentric rays of influence considering the annual averages, concluding that the future scenario exerts a lower saturation in the aerial basin and therefore, lower levels of environmental vulnerability and population risk. The sensitivity and performance of the model were evaluated by statistical methods, concluding that it is applicable because they meet the criteria of prediction fraction, average tendency and random spread.

A Grande Jazida Candiota, localizada no Município homônimo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, possui o maior depósito de carvão mineral do país. Desde 1970 em operação, a Usina Termoelétrica (UTE) Presidente Médici opera atualmente com potência nominal de 796 MW, distribuídas em cinco unidades. Na mesma região encontra-se em instalação a UTE Pampa Sul, com potência nominal de 340 MW, enquanto outras usinas, totalizando 2.527 MW, estão em distintas fases de licenciamento ambiental federal (LAF). Na presente pesquisa aplicou-se o modelo regulatório CALPUFF para avaliar o comportamento da dispersão dos poluentes atmosféricos das fontes fixas prognosticando a vulnerabilidade ambiental em termos de saturação da bacia atmosférica pela estimativa do Índice de Pressão Ambiental (IPA). Pela análise de agrupamento das respostas das simulações incidentes em receptores dos núcleos urbanos, estimou-se o risco populacional em termos de Fração de Ingestão (FI) de poluentes. Ao compararmos o cenário futuro com o atual, apesar de maior distribuição espacial das fontes de emissão e significativo acréscimo de potência, as taxas de emissão total de SO2 e MP para a área em estudo serão reduzidas entre os atuais 3.266,1 g SO2/s e 696,3 g MP/s para futuros 1.899,9 g SO2/s e 261,7 g MP/s. Contudo, para o poluente NOx esta tendência é inversa, passando da atual taxa de emissão de 375,8 g NOx/s para 1.423,9 g Nox/s. Para o período de 2011 a 2013, ao compararmos as médias anuais de poluentes entre o cenário atual e o futuro, contabilizou-se para a FI redução média de cerca de 15% de SO2 e 42% de MP, ao passo que houve elevação de cerca de 524% para NOx. Avaliando-se a distribuição espacial da poluição provocada pelos três compostos, aplicou-se o IPA para raios concêntricos de influência considerando as médias anuais, concluindo-se que o cenário futuro exerce menor saturação na bacia aérea e portanto menores índices de vulnerabilidade ambiental e risco populacional. A sensibilidade e performance do modelo foram avaliadas por métodos estatísticos, concluindo-se que o mesmo é aplicável pois atendem os critérios de fração de predição, tendência média e de espalhamento aleatório. / The Great Coal-Bed of Candiota, located in the homonymous municipality of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, has the largest coal deposit in the country. Since 1970 in operation, Presidente Médici Thermoelectric Power Plant (TPP) currently operates with nominal power of 796 MW, distributed in five units. In the same region, the Pampa Sul TPP is under construction, with a nominal power of 340 MW; while other plants, totaling 2,527 MW, are in different phases of federal environmental licensing (FEL). In the present research the CALPUFF regulatory model was applied to evaluate the behavior of the dispersion of the atmospheric pollutants emitted from fixed sources, predicting the environmental vulnerability in terms of saturation of the atmospheric basin by the estimation of the Environmental Pressure Index (EPI). The population risk in terms of Intake Fraction (IF) of pollutants was estimated by grouping the responses of the simulations incident on receptors of the urban nuclei. When comparing the future scenario with the current one, in spite of a greater spatial distribution of emission sources and a significant increase in power, the total emission rates of SO2 and MP for the study area will be reduced from the current 3,266.1 g SO2 / s 696.3 g MP / s for futures 1,899.9 g SO2 / s and 261.7 g MP / s. However, for the NOx pollutant this trend is reversed, from the current emission rate of 375.8 g NOx / s to 1423.9 g Nox / s. For the period from 2011 to 2013, when comparing the annual averages of pollutants between the current and future scenarios, an average reduction of about 15% of SO2 and 42% of MP was recorded for FI, while there was an increase of 524% for NOx. The EPI was applied to concentric rays of influence considering the annual averages, concluding that the future scenario exerts a lower saturation in the aerial basin and therefore, lower levels of environmental vulnerability and population risk. The sensitivity and performance of the model were evaluated by statistical methods, concluding that it is applicable because they meet the criteria of prediction fraction, average tendency and random spread.

A Grande Jazida Candiota, localizada no Município homônimo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, possui o maior depósito de carvão mineral do país. Desde 1970 em operação, a Usina Termoelétrica (UTE) Presidente Médici opera atualmente com potência nominal de 796 MW, distribuídas em cinco unidades. Na mesma região encontra-se em instalação a UTE Pampa Sul, com potência nominal de 340 MW, enquanto outras usinas, totalizando 2.527 MW, estão em distintas fases de licenciamento ambiental federal (LAF). Na presente pesquisa aplicou-se o modelo regulatório CALPUFF para avaliar o comportamento da dispersão dos poluentes atmosféricos das fontes fixas prognosticando a vulnerabilidade ambiental em termos de saturação da bacia atmosférica pela estimativa do Índice de Pressão Ambiental (IPA). Pela análise de agrupamento das respostas das simulações incidentes em receptores dos núcleos urbanos, estimou-se o risco populacional em termos de Fração de Ingestão (FI) de poluentes. Ao compararmos o cenário futuro com o atual, apesar de maior distribuição espacial das fontes de emissão e significativo acréscimo de potência, as taxas de emissão total de SO2 e MP para a área em estudo serão reduzidas entre os atuais 3.266,1 g SO2/s e 696,3 g MP/s para futuros 1.899,9 g SO2/s e 261,7 g MP/s. Contudo, para o poluente NOx esta tendência é inversa, passando da atual taxa de emissão de 375,8 g NOx/s para 1.423,9 g Nox/s. Para o período de 2011 a 2013, ao compararmos as médias anuais de poluentes entre o cenário atual e o futuro, contabilizou-se para a FI redução média de cerca de 15% de SO2 e 42% de MP, ao passo que houve elevação de cerca de 524% para NOx. Avaliando-se a distribuição espacial da poluição provocada pelos três compostos, aplicou-se o IPA para raios concêntricos de influência considerando as médias anuais, concluindo-se que o cenário futuro exerce menor saturação na bacia aérea e portanto menores índices de vulnerabilidade ambiental e risco populacional. A sensibilidade e performance do modelo foram avaliadas por métodos estatísticos, concluindo-se que o mesmo é aplicável pois atendem os critérios de fração de predição, tendência média e de espalhamento aleatório. / The Great Coal-Bed of Candiota, located in the homonymous municipality of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, has the largest coal deposit in the country. Since 1970 in operation, Presidente Médici Thermoelectric Power Plant (TPP) currently operates with nominal power of 796 MW, distributed in five units. In the same region, the Pampa Sul TPP is under construction, with a nominal power of 340 MW; while other plants, totaling 2,527 MW, are in different phases of federal environmental licensing (FEL). In the present research the CALPUFF regulatory model was applied to evaluate the behavior of the dispersion of the atmospheric pollutants emitted from fixed sources, predicting the environmental vulnerability in terms of saturation of the atmospheric basin by the estimation of the Environmental Pressure Index (EPI). The population risk in terms of Intake Fraction (IF) of pollutants was estimated by grouping the responses of the simulations incident on receptors of the urban nuclei. When comparing the future scenario with the current one, in spite of a greater spatial distribution of emission sources and a significant increase in power, the total emission rates of SO2 and MP for the study area will be reduced from the current 3,266.1 g SO2 / s 696.3 g MP / s for futures 1,899.9 g SO2 / s and 261.7 g MP / s. However, for the NOx pollutant this trend is reversed, from the current emission rate of 375.8 g NOx / s to 1423.9 g Nox / s. For the period from 2011 to 2013, when comparing the annual averages of pollutants between the current and future scenarios, an average reduction of about 15% of SO2 and 42% of MP was recorded for FI, while there was an increase of 524% for NOx. The EPI was applied to concentric rays of influence considering the annual averages, concluding that the future scenario exerts a lower saturation in the aerial basin and therefore, lower levels of environmental vulnerability and population risk. The sensitivity and performance of the model were evaluated by statistical methods, concluding that it is applicable because they meet the criteria of prediction fraction, average tendency and random spread.

This diploma thesis focuses on the issue of seniors in transportation and examines the typical causes of traffic accidents caused by the participation of persons of this age category. The theoretical part of the thesis explains the demographic development of the society with regard to the population’s mobility and describes the personality of the person in the transport environment from the traffic psychology point of view focusing on seniors. The empirical part of the thesis focuses on the analysis of traffic accidents with the participation of seniors, defining the causes. It sets out the practical tools that can be used to objectively assess the driver's ability to drive in terms of driver's age and the possibility of reducing the number of traffic accidents caused by the elderly.