D.Phil. / Despite a sharp decline in the birthrate, recent projections show that the population groups in the RSA are still expected to grow rapidly in the future. Since its inception in 1974, the National Family Planning Programme has been very successful, and by 1980 more than a million women from all population groups were practising contraception. Although the programme planners set as their goal an annual increase in this figure, it was not clear what the effect of a given increase would be on population growth in the RSA. In this study recent population projections for the RSA were used as the point of departure, and it was established what the increased family planning input would have to be if the prospect of reduced population sizes were held out. Furthermore, it was assumed in the models used that changes would take place over a period of time in respect of the average period of use of contraceptives, and that there would be a shift to more effective methods. The TABRAP and PROJTARG models used for these analyses were extremely suitable for experimentation so that an in-depth study of the family planning situation of Asians, Coloureds and Blacks could be made. There are certain shortcomings in these models, however, and a new model incorporating characteristics from both models was developed to conduct projections up to the year 2010.

The first two official AIDS cases were diagnosed in South Africa in 1982. During the same period of the 1980s, the black/African population was experiencing an accelerated fertility decline, following a period of accelerated mortality decline. Demographers invoked the demographic transition theory to explain the observed mortality and fertility decline. According to the demographic transition theory, mortality and fertility rates would continue declining to low, post transitional levels with increasing modernization. The relatively higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS estimated among black/African South Africans is expected to alter their demographic transition. This research investigated the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/Africans by 2021.

The first two official AIDS cases were diagnosed in South Africa in 1982. During the same period of the 1980s, the black/African population was experiencing an accelerated fertility decline, following a period of accelerated mortality decline. Demographers invoked the demographic transition theory to explain the observed mortality and fertility decline. According to the demographic transition theory, mortality and fertility rates would continue declining to low, post transitional levels with increasing modernization. The relatively higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS estimated among black/African South Africans is expected to alter their demographic transition. This research investigated the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/Africans by 2021.