The European Commission 6th Framework Project COCOMAT (Improved MATerial Exploitation at Safe Design of COmposite Airframe Structures by Accurate Simulation of COllapse) was a four and a half year project (2004 to mid-2008) aimed at exploiting the large reserve of strength in composite structures through more accurate prediction of collapse. In the experimental work packages, significant statistical variation in buckling behaviour and ultimate loading were encountered. The variations observed in the experimental results were not predicted in the finite element analyses that were done in the early stages of the project. The work undertaken in this thesis to support the COCOMAT project was initiated when it was recognised that there was a gap in knowledge about the effect of initial defects and variations in the input variables of both the experimental and simulated panels. The work involved the development of stochastic algorithms to relate variations in boundary conditions, material properties and geometries to the variation in buckling modes and loads up to first failure. It was proposed in this thesis that any future design had to focus on the dominant parameters affecting the statistical scatter in the results to achieve lower sensitivity to variation. A methodology was developed for designing stiffened composite panels with improved robustness. Several panels tested in the COCOMAT project were redesigned using this approach to demonstrate its applicability. The original contributions from this thesis are therefore the development of a stochastic methodology to identify the impact of variation in input parameters on the response of stiffened composite panels and the development of Robust Indices to support the design of new panels. The stochastic analysis included the generation of metamodels that allow quantification of the impact that the inputs have on the response using two first order variables, Influence and Sensitivity. These variables are then used to derive the Robust Indices. A significant outcome of this thesis was the recognition in the final report for COCOMAT that the development of a validated robust index should be a focus of any future design of postbuckling stiffened panels.

The European Commission 6th Framework Project COCOMAT (Improved MATerial Exploitation at Safe Design of COmposite Airframe Structures by Accurate Simulation of COllapse) was a four and a half year project (2004 to mid-2008) aimed at exploiting the large reserve of strength in composite structures through more accurate prediction of collapse. In the experimental work packages, significant statistical variation in buckling behaviour and ultimate loading were encountered. The variations observed in the experimental results were not predicted in the finite element analyses that were done in the early stages of the project. The work undertaken in this thesis to support the COCOMAT project was initiated when it was recognised that there was a gap in knowledge about the effect of initial defects and variations in the input variables of both the experimental and simulated panels. The work involved the development of stochastic algorithms to relate variations in boundary conditions, material properties and geometries to the variation in buckling modes and loads up to first failure. It was proposed in this thesis that any future design had to focus on the dominant parameters affecting the statistical scatter in the results to achieve lower sensitivity to variation. A methodology was developed for designing stiffened composite panels with improved robustness. Several panels tested in the COCOMAT project were redesigned using this approach to demonstrate its applicability. The original contributions from this thesis are therefore the development of a stochastic methodology to identify the impact of variation in input parameters on the response of stiffened composite panels and the development of Robust Indices to support the design of new panels. The stochastic analysis included the generation of metamodels that allow quantification of the impact that the inputs have on the response using two first order variables, Influence and Sensitivity. These variables are then used to derive the Robust Indices. A significant outcome of this thesis was the recognition in the final report for COCOMAT that the development of a validated robust index should be a focus of any future design of postbuckling stiffened panels.