Potatoes are a capital-intensive crop. A farmer who is considering expanding his potato acreage must carefully consider revenue requirements to offset the high costs of raising the crop. A method to forecast annual farm potato prices would be useful not only to the farmer, who is considering potato acreage expansion (or contraction), but also to the potato buyers. Seven forecasting models were considered: (1) a simultaneous equation model (with five equations); (2) a Box-Jenkins type ARIMA model; (3) an exponential smoothing model; (4) a moving-ave rage model; (5) a trend model; (6) an "opposite" model; and (7) a current. or naive, model. The results reveal the following three things: (I) The "best" model was the trend model. This model gave the most accurate one-period out-of-sample forecasts of the models tested (as measured by the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean squared error (RMSE), and Theil's U2 statistics). The simultaneous equation model could be considered as the next best model. (2) The forecast for the average Utah farm potato price for 1992 was about $5.40 per cwt. (3) The average Utah farm potato price for 1993 should be in the $5.51 to $5.95 range (the forecasts from the trend and simultaneous equation models, respectively).

Thesis (M.A. Agricultural Management (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo -- 2020 / Potato is the most important vegetable crop in South Africa in terms of contribution to the gross value of agricultural production, export earnings and contribution to food supply base and food security in the SACU region. Despite the importance of this commodity, very little is known about the nature of price transmission between different levels of potato value chain in South Africa. The study aims to determine the nature of price transmission in the South African potato market. The objectives of the study are to investigate the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between producer, wholesale and retail prices; to determine characteristics of the relationship; and to determine the direction of price causality. The study made use of Error Correction Model and Granger Causality test. The Empirical results reveal the existence of price asymmetry in the South African potato value chain. Furthermore, the results show that retail prices are more responsive producer price increases than they are to producer price declines. The Granger causality test shows that prices in potato value chain are determined mainly at the wholesale level (i.e. at the National Fresh Produce Markets). The study recommends further research focusing on price transmission for other basic food commodities and that the government retains and strengthens the existing food price monitoring system. / Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries