This study attempts to measure the effects on the share price of companies entering and exiting four FTSE/JSE indices; the J200, J210, J213 and J260. While results showed only weak statistical significance, systematic patterns were observed during the event window. Share prices of companies entering and exiting value weighted indices responded consistently with the investor awareness hypothesis. Share prices of companies entering and exiting indices weighted by fundamental factors responded consistently with the information hypothesis. The cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were permanent and did not reverse within the first 200 days after the index change for all indices. Abnormal returns were calculated by using the market model and a one factor CAPM model. The market model was a superior benchmark in this study. This study found that the CAARs for index changes became positive only after the date of the index change. This implies that either the effect of passive index funds on the JSE is not significant, or that passive funds are allowed to incur tracking errors in order to trade strategically to secure the best price for a reconstituted portfolio. This conclusion is supported by the fact that there was no observable change in the index premium over time. The findings of this study may indicate market inefficiency, which means that arbitrage opportunities may exist around index changes. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Cette thèse étudie les différentes facettes du risque de liquidité et analyse le rôle essentiel qu'elles jouent dans la stabilité systémique.Dans la partie théorique de la thèse, nous traitons du risque de liquidité au travers des ruées bancaires. Progressivement, nous introduisons le marché interbancaire en tant que mécanisme d'assurance de liquidité entre les banques. Cependant, lorsqu'il y a une pénurie globale de liquidité, ce marché a tendance à favoriser la propagation d'une crise de liquidité de banque à banque, ce qui peut aboutir au risque systémique. Nous étudions de manière approfondie la littérature sur la contagion par les liens interbancaires et au travers des prix des actifs. / This thesis examines the different facets of the liquidity risk and aims to analyse their essential role in the stability of the financial system. In the theoretical part of the thesis, we treat liquidity risk through bank runs. Gradually, we introduce the interbank market as a liquidity insurance mechanism between banks. However, when there is an overall shortage of liquidity, this market tends to encourage the spread of liquidity crises from bank to bank which can lead to a systemic financial crisis. We study the literature on risk contagion by interbank links and through asset price effects. The applied part of the thesis aims to test the validity of hypotheses and insights presented in the theoretical framework. The goal is to betterunderstand the mechanism of liquidity risk and the forces of interaction between balance sheet effects that can lead to the transformation of liquidity risk into systemic risk caused by counterparty risk or the revaluation of tradable assets at market prices. In the first numerical application, we propose to evaluate the risk of contagion by interbank linkages in a context where banks borrow on the interbank market and/or at the central bank if necessary. The second simulation is dedicated to contagion through asset price effects, considering that the banks must sell assets on the market to meet their liquidity shortfall. If mark-to-market accounting is applied, the effects of the douwnturn in prices appear immediately and cause a spontaneous reaction from stakeholders.