AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Mana-anya Iemsam-arng, for the Master's degree in Agribusiness Economics, presented on November 9, 2010, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. TITLE: Contamination Events and Linkages in World Rice Markets MAJOR PROFESSOR: Dr. Dwight Sanders In August of 2006, genetically modified LibertyLink rice contaminated the supply of non-GMO rice in the United States, causing damage to the U.S. rice production sector's credibility in their export market. The damage to the United States' credibility included doubt as to whether or not they had the ability to separate GMO and non-GMO rice strains during planting and/or production. This caused a short-term decline in the price of U.S. rice. The purpose of this paper is to examine rice price relationships from August 1997 to February 2010 among the four major rice exporting countries (Thailand, Vietnam, the United States, and India) before and after the genetically modified rice contamination event. Using unit root tests and cointegration tests, the results show that international rice export prices are independent from each other, yet the U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam 5 percent broken DWP rice prices tended to change in the same direction. The fact that the change in rice prices occurred right after the U.S. GMO contamination event of August 2006 is statistically significant. However, the results of this study cannot be proven to indicate that the contamination event's impact caused this change in rice export prices. Keywords: Rice prices, Contamination Events

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[Introduction] Much of the information available on the prices of vegetables marketed through the fresh produce markets is of limited use to producers. This information contains the actual prices for individual years. This can obviously be taken as a guide to future prices but it does not necessarily mean that those prices are a true reflection of the general pattern. In this study an attempt will be made, firstly, to establish whether a general pattern exists in the prices of selected vegetables on the East London municipal market. This will be attempted by studying the prices obtained over the 1964-1979 period. Information of this nature can be used as a basis for the planning of future crops. Secondly, to determine the months which obtain the "best" prices for the selected vegetables taking into account the quantities supplied to the market.

This study analyses the housing price volatility in metropolitan areas in South Africa, particularly Port Elizabeth and East London residential housing markets. This study uses secondary statistical data, obtained from secondary sources. The study uses quarterly time series data for the period 1981:1 to 2015:3 giving 139 observations. The data will be collected from different sources. The main sources of data are real estate agencies (Trafalgar, Harcourts and Property24), the South African Department of Trade and Industry (dti) and supplemented by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The study shall use the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to estimate its results. Ordinarily, this is a generalised linear modelling technique that may be used to model a single response variable which has been recorded on at least an interval scale. This method requires that the underlying stochastic processes of the variables are stationary. That is, explanatory variables should exhibit constant means and variances over time. If the stochastic processes are not stationary, OLS produces unreliably significant coefficients. Results showed that household savings, household income and total growth in household buildings (TGH) are statistically significant in explaining changes in house prices. Jointly, all the explanatory variables can account for almost 52% of the changes in the dependent variable. The Durbin Watson statistic showed that there is no autocorrelation in the model. This shows that the model is good. Results from the regression show that there is a negative relationship between house prices and household savings. A one-unit increase in household savings leads to a 0.407 decrease in house prices. This relationship makes economic sense because when households save, there is less income available to buy houses. When there is less income available to buy houses, it would mean there is less demand for houses.

The valuation of the built environment has been a traditional concern of geographers. A particular interest has been the way in which the value of locational externalities are incorporated into house prices through housing market dynamics. However, much of the previous research into this process has been of North American origin, despite the fact that house prices, and property valuations in general, have become a major part of British life. This research aims to begin to rectify this shortfall by studying the spatial dynamics of the Cardiff Housing Market. Implicit in this research is an attempt to move towards a valuation of locational externalities at the micro-scale. The research employs two distinct method of analysis. Firstly, ARC / INFO GIS is used to construct a context-sensitive GIS of the Cardiff housing market. An important aspect of this GIS is the use of Ordnance Survey's ADDRESS-POINT product to geo-reference individual properties to a resolution of 0.1 metre. Several large and complex socio-economic and property related datasets were then attached to this coverage, including house price survey data, local taxation data, and data from a Housing Condition Survey of one in five dwellings in the central area of Cardiff. This GIS is one of the most comprehensive constructed for any city, and is relatively unique in this kind of research. The second method of analysis employs the hedonic pricing technique to impute monetary values for the implicit attributes of housing. An important part of the research is an investigation into the specification of the hedonic house price function. The traditional specification is essentially aspatial, and does not take into account the spatial nature the data, and thus the spatial dynamics of the housing market that generates it. To rectify this, three different specifications of the hedonic house price function are investigated: the traditional specification, the spatial parameter drift specification and the multi-level specification. The research concludes that the multi-level specification is best at modelling the spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence inherent in housing market data. The results from this modelling show that the valuation of locational externalities are intimately bound up with the attributes of the housing stock and the characteristics of the resident households, resulting in a complex juxtaposition of positive and negative valuations of location at the local level.

M.Com. (Financial Management) / Researchers are not satisfied with models that explain share price variations based on net present value analysis. To overcome the traditional problems of net present value analysis, intrinsic bubbles and the dividend price ratio were investigated to explain share price volatility. An index derived from dividend paying shares listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange Limited (JSE Ltd) for the period January 2000 to December 2010 was investigated. This investigation was based on Froot and Obstfeld’s (1991) Intrinsic Bubbles model. The null hypothesis of no intrinsic bubbles was not rejected. The findings infer that share prices were not only driven by fundamentals, implying the presence of intrinsic bubbles. This is consistent with the findings of Brooks, Nneji and Ward (2011) after applying the same methodology on the US housing market. The researcher’s aim was to provide a better clarification on whether changes in fundamentals are suitable to predict share prices, but results were inconclusive in this regard. The results indicate that fundamentals account for 80.1% of share price movements.

This thesis is about investment and access in network industries. More specifically, the aim of the thesis is to build theoretical models to examine some of the aspects of the link between access prices and incentives to invest in network infrastructure. We consider two basic questions relating to these issues, namely (i) how best to fund an incumbent network owner's investment when the network is an essential input for the operation of downstream providers, and (ii) what level of coverage a new firm which enters a market by building its own network infrastructure will choose. The choice of access prices has drawn a lot of attention from regulation economists and is a central aspect of regulatory planning. However, while becoming central to policy debate in the area, the effect of this choice on firms' incentives to invest in network infrastructure has received only limited attention. The questions considered here are motivated by examples in several network utilities in the UK and abroad. In both cases, substantial debate taking place concerning the choice of access prices and, at the same time, major investment in network infrastructure is required and is indeed taking place.

Much has been written, by academics, about media coverage as being contrarian indicators i.e. media headlines have an impact on the share price performance of featured companies. The objective of this study was to investigate if this phenomenon was true for listed South African Companies. Thus the study determined if newspapers were effective contrarian indicators for companies listed in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). This determination was through a recognised research method and statistical analysis. The study analysed 257 Business Day headlines, featuring JSE listed companies. The study then assessed share price performance for the period 120 days before and 120 days after the headline announcement. The study found that press announcements do have an impact on the share price performance of JSE listed companies and that the impact was significantly higher than those reported in the developed capital markets. The study further determined that positive headlines lead to positive company share price performance; and that negative headlines do not necessary lead to a negative share price performance. The study also found that the impact of these press announcements is influenced by the company’s market capitalisation and sector. It was shown that companies with a large market capitalisation experienced significant impact on share price performance compared to companies with a small market capitalisation. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

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