This thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay, we derive a pricing kernel for a continuous-time long-run risks (LRR) economy with the Epstein-Zin utility function, non-i.i.d. consumption growth, and incomplete information about fundamentals. In equilibrium, agents learn about latent conditional mean of consumption growth and price equity simultaneously. Since the pricing kernel is endogenous and affected by learning, uncertainty about unobserved conditional mean of consumption growth affects risk prices corresponding to shocks in both consumption and dividend growth. We demonstrate our analytical results by applying the model to a profitability-based equity valuation model proposed by Pastor and Veronesi (2003). Calibration of the model demonstrates that the LRR model with learning has potential to fit levels of price-dividend ratios of the S&P 500 Composite Index, equity premium, and the short term interest rate simultaneously. In essay two, we extend the LRR model with incomplete information proposed in essay one by incorporating inflation and applying the model to the valuation of nominal term structure of interest rate. We estimate the processes of state variables and latent variables using a Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In the estimation, we rely only on the information in macro-economic data on aggregate consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth on S&P 500 Composite Index. In this way, parameters and latent state variables are estimated outside the model. Estimation results suggest a mildly persistent LRR component. However, both real and nominal yield curves implied by the LRR model are downward-sloping. We show that the inverted yield curve is due to a negative risk premium, which is determined jointly by covariance between shocks in state variables and shocks in the nominal pricing kernel. Incorporating learning about the mean consumption growth flattens the yield curve but does not change the sign of the yield curve slope. In essay three, we study the critique of the conditional affine factor asset pricing models proposed by Lewellen and Nagel (2006). They suggest that two important economic constraints are overlooked in cross-sectional regressions. First, the estimated unconditional slope associated with a risk factor should equal the average risk premium on that factor in a conditional model. Second, the estimated slope associated with the product of a risk factor and an instrument should be equal to the covariance of the factor risk premium with the instrument. We test both constraints on conditional models with time-varying betas and our results confirm the proposition. Also, from the functional relationship between conditional and unconditional betas, we identify an unconditional constraint on unconditional betas for time-varying beta models and develop a testing procedure subject to this constraint. We show that imposing this unconditional constraint changes estimates of unconditional betas and risk prices significantly. / October 2016

Thesis advisor: Ronnie Sadka / In the first essay, we estimate liquidity-driven trading volume, denoted as inside volume, based on the joint daily reversal pattern of volume and price. With this measure, we find that firms experience a shock to idiosyncratic volatility display an increase in liquidity provision. Furthermore, the under-performance of high-idiosyncratic volatility firms is limited to those with high inside-volume. The relation between idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity provision is prominent in both over- and under-priced stocks. The results suggest that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle is largely driven by liquidity provision. In the second essay, I document a discontinuity at zero in the conditional distribution of hedge fund quarterly returns following underperformance and outflow. I propose a dynamic measure, conditional kink (CK), to quantify this quick loss recovery and investigate its underlying mechanism. Contrary to the managerial skill hypothesis, hedge funds with higher CK underperform in the subsequent year. Furthermore, this underperformance only pertains to funds with low governance, suggesting that some fund managers may engage in ill-motivated activities to recovery. The flow-performance relationship indicates that investors do not recognize this adverse behavior, thus highlighting the importance of internal control and information monitoring in the hedge fund industry. In the third essay, we demonstrate a “reinforcement effect” between past returns and media-measured sentiment across several asset markets – liquid individual stocks, international equity markets, and currencies. Reinforcement states when past returns and media sentiment agree signify overreaction, leading to return reversion. Reversion disappears in non-reinforcing states. The effect is driven by the unrelated shocks, rather than correlated comovement, in past returns and sentiment. Sentiment’s return-forecasting strength comes primarily through greater negative return autocorrelation in reinforcement states. The effect is stronger in more liquid assets and using local news outlets. Buying disparaged losers while selling praised winners earns several percent annually. In the fourth essay, I demonstrate the importance of inter-firm political links, measured by common campaign contributions made by firm executives. Price movements of a firm’s stock are predictable based on stock price movements of connected firms. Cross-predictability is strongest among politically connected firms that operate in different states and sectors, suggesting that inter-firm political links are largely overlooked due to limited investor attention. To probe the underlying mechanism, I present evidence suggesting that common sources of political exposure across firms ex-ante cannot alone explain this relationship; instead, political ties play the key role, further synchronizing ex-post political agendas. Using the 2010 Citizens United v. FEC decision as an exogenous shock, I find that cross-predictability is weaker for firms that are restricted from actively engaging in political campaigns. Long-short stock portfolios based on political ties yield risk-adjusted returns of 4%-5% per annum. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 1983. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-123). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2001. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references. Available also from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International.

An extended warranty provides consumers the opportunity to rectify product failures at little or no cost after the expiry of the base warranty. Empirical evidence has shown that the selling of extended warranty contract (EWC) has become a profitable business in many manufacturing and retail industries. This thesis investigates the dynamic pricing problem for a new product with the option of purchasing an extended warranty contract (EWC). The research simultaneously determines the pricing strategies for both the product and the associated EWC, and the production rate to maximize the manufacturer’s long-term total profit. The results show that the provision of EWC will significantly affect the optimal pricing strategy for the new product, and may also affect its optimal production plan. The research establishes three mathematical models for making optimal pricing decisions under different operational settings. The first model considers a centralized selling system in which the manufacturer sells the product and offers the associated EWC to the consumer directly. The second model extends the first one by incorporating the production and inventory decisions in the analysis. The third model considers a decentralized system in which the manufacturer sells the new product to consumers through an independent retailer. The EWC can be offered either by the manufacturer or by the retailer. It is shown that each scenario leads to a differential Stackelberg game in which the manufacturer and the retailer are players. For the first model, the Pontryagin maximum principle is used to derive the necessary condition for the optimal pricing strategies for both the new product and the associated EWC. Some properties for pricing the new product optimally are then studied. Apart from analysing the characteristics of the optimal pricing strategy under general demand conditions, closed-form solutions for the problem are also derived for some specific demand functions. In cases where closed-form solutions cannot be found, a gradient algorithm is applied to solve the problem numerically. In the second model, the production rate becomes a decision variable because the unit production cost depends on the chosen production rate. Results of the analysis show that the optimal selling price for the EWC remains the same as that in the first model, while the optimal selling price for the new product are affected by the production rate. The results also show that the gradient algorithm fails to converge, thus is no longer suitable for the second model due to the complexity caused by the boundary conditions. A more robust control vector parameterization method is then developed to compute the numerical solution. Analysing the third model theoretically indicates that some necessary conditions related to the optimal wholesale price and the optimal retail price must be satisfied for the existence of an open-loop Stackelberg equilibrium. Some important managerial insights are derived on the basis of the properties characterizing the optimal solution. The control vector parameterization method is then further developed to solve the differential game problem. Numerical experiments are then carried out to demonstrate which distribution channel results in the largest profit. / published_or_final_version / Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Fama and French (1995, 1996) argue that the high-minus-low (HML) book-tomarket (B/M) factor in their 1993 three-factor model is a proxy for a distress-risk return premium and that the model is consistent with rational pricing. Alternative views are that the HML premium is caused by irrational behaviour or market inefficiencies. Dichev (1998) finds that high distress-risk firms have low, not high, B/M and earn low returns. He also finds a systematic relation between the distress-risk characteristic and return, independent of the B/M characteristic. The effect of differences in the methodology used by Fama and French (1995) and Dichev (1998) has not been examined. In addition, there is no evidence of whether a distress-risk return premium is important in describing returns. Examination of the characteristics and returns of sorted distress-risk portfolios shows that most high distress-risk, positive book-equity NYSE-AMEX firms do have high B/M. However, for both the NYSE-AMEX and NASDAQ, small firms with high distress-risk have low B/M ratios. A positive relation between distress-risk and return is not found for either NYSE-AMEX or NASDAQ firms. A distress-minus-solvent (DMS) return premium constructed using Fama and French (1993) methodology is negative and significant. Regression results show that both the HML and the DMS factors are important in describing the time-series of returns. However, the HML factor is of only marginal importance when examining sorted distress-risk portfolio returns. In addition, the HML coefficients are related to the B/M characteristic, rather than distress-risk, when both sorted distress-risk and characteristic-balanced portfolio returns are examined. The combined evidence suggests that HML cannot be interpreted as a return premium related to financial distress. However, a systematic relation does exist between distress-risk and return. The evidence supports a market inefficiency or irrational behaviour, rather than a risk based explanation of asset returns. Investors pay too much for financially distressed firms and subsequently earn low returns.

Dissertation (MBus) -- AUT University, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references. Also held in print (108 leaves ; 30 cm.) in City Campus Theses Collection (T 336.243 SIN)

Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Glasgow, 1999. / Ph.D. thesis submitted to the Faculty of Law and Financial Studies, Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Glasgow, 1999. Print version also available.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Los Angeles, 2006. / Adviser: John G. Riley. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis--Københavns universitet. / Summary in English. Bibliography: p. [283]-286.