O assunto a ser tratado neste trabalho é a relação entre o crescimento econômico e a restrição externa. O objetivo do trabalho é construir um modelo macroeconômico de simulação que sirva de instrumento de análise, ainda que modesto, da relação entre os componentes de Demanda Agregada (DA) e as variáveis do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) da economia brasileira no período 1947-2006. O modelo baseia-se no Princípio da Demanda Efetiva (PDE) formalizado inicialmente por Keynes e Kalecki, através do qual Thirlwall (1979) derivou um resultado geral de como a restrição de equilíbrio do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) limita o crescimento de uma economia no longo prazo. A Teoria de Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) constitui a base metodológica para abordar esse tema. Essa é uma teoria de modelagem e simulação de sistemas complexos, e a sua utilização permitirá tratar de forma integrada as variáveis a serem analisadas. No final do trabalho, apresentar-se-ão algumas simulações com o objetivo de identificar o impacto de cenários alternativos (com mudança de parâmetros e condições iniciais) sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia no período 1947-2006. / The matter to be treated in this work is the relationship between economic growth and foreign restriction. The objective is to build a macroeconomic simulation model to serve as a tool for analysis, though modest,of the relationship between the components of Aggregate Demand and the variables of the Balance of Payments of the Brazilian economy in the period 1947-2006. The model is based on the Principle of Effective Demand, formalized initially by Keynes and Kalecki, through which Thirlwall (1979) derived a general result of how the restriction of the Balance of Payments limits growth of an economy in the long run. The Theory of System Dynamics forms the methodological basis for addressing this theme. This is a theory of modeling and simulation of complex systems, and its use will allow to treat the variables to be examined in an integrated way. At the end of the work it will be presented some simulations with the goal of identifying the impact of alternative scenarios (with change of parameters and initial conditions) on the growth rate of the economy in the period 1947-2006.

O assunto a ser tratado neste trabalho é a relação entre o crescimento econômico e a restrição externa. O objetivo do trabalho é construir um modelo macroeconômico de simulação que sirva de instrumento de análise, ainda que modesto, da relação entre os componentes de Demanda Agregada (DA) e as variáveis do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) da economia brasileira no período 1947-2006. O modelo baseia-se no Princípio da Demanda Efetiva (PDE) formalizado inicialmente por Keynes e Kalecki, através do qual Thirlwall (1979) derivou um resultado geral de como a restrição de equilíbrio do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) limita o crescimento de uma economia no longo prazo. A Teoria de Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) constitui a base metodológica para abordar esse tema. Essa é uma teoria de modelagem e simulação de sistemas complexos, e a sua utilização permitirá tratar de forma integrada as variáveis a serem analisadas. No final do trabalho, apresentar-se-ão algumas simulações com o objetivo de identificar o impacto de cenários alternativos (com mudança de parâmetros e condições iniciais) sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia no período 1947-2006. / The matter to be treated in this work is the relationship between economic growth and foreign restriction. The objective is to build a macroeconomic simulation model to serve as a tool for analysis, though modest,of the relationship between the components of Aggregate Demand and the variables of the Balance of Payments of the Brazilian economy in the period 1947-2006. The model is based on the Principle of Effective Demand, formalized initially by Keynes and Kalecki, through which Thirlwall (1979) derived a general result of how the restriction of the Balance of Payments limits growth of an economy in the long run. The Theory of System Dynamics forms the methodological basis for addressing this theme. This is a theory of modeling and simulation of complex systems, and its use will allow to treat the variables to be examined in an integrated way. At the end of the work it will be presented some simulations with the goal of identifying the impact of alternative scenarios (with change of parameters and initial conditions) on the growth rate of the economy in the period 1947-2006.

The principle of effective demand states that given endogenous expenditure patterns, the level of exogenous expenditure determines the level of employment. If investment represents the sole form of exogenous expenditure, employment adjusts to the level of investment. If exogenous expenditure changes, equilibrium is restored via the equilibrating variable, employment. If employment is linked in a unique way to income, we have what is referred to as the income adjustment process. The income adjustment process is investigated in a closed and a small open economy (SOE) which imports consumption and capital goods. If a SOE imports its capital goods, the causal link between investment and employment is weakened. When capital goods are imported, investment adjusts to the balance of payments and animal spirits are constrained. Certain South African data are analysed within the framework of the income adjustment process. / M.A.(Economics)

The principle of effective demand states that given endogenous expenditure patterns, the level of exogenous expenditure determines the level of employment. If investment represents the sole form of exogenous expenditure, employment adjusts to the level of investment. If exogenous expenditure changes, equilibrium is restored via the equilibrating variable, employment. If employment is linked in a unique way to income, we have what is referred to as the income adjustment process. The income adjustment process is investigated in a closed and a small open economy (SOE) which imports consumption and capital goods. If a SOE imports its capital goods, the causal link between investment and employment is weakened. When capital goods are imported, investment adjusts to the balance of payments and animal spirits are constrained. Certain South African data are analysed within the framework of the income adjustment process. / M.A.(Economics)

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)