Because of the essentially stochastic nature of power systems behavior, mainly due to random equipment outages and load variations, it is very important to consider uncertainties of power systems to promote the accuracy of Available Transfer Capability (ATC) calculations. This paper proposed a probabilistic technique "Bootstrap" to provide an accuracy criteria for ATC estimation that uses historical data and a future postulated condition. The bootstrap is a computer-based method for assigning measures of accuracy to statistical estimates. Test results showed that when the uncertainties of loads and line outages were considered, using the proposed probabilistic approach the confidence intervals could reflect the accuracy of the posted ATC values and it will be more flexible in bidding ATC to further aid transmission customers in their evaluation of transaction biddings and risk analysis.

Renewable energy policies, such as the Renewable Portfolio Standard, arising from increasing environmental concerns have set very ambitious targets for wind power penetration in electric power systems throughout the world. In many cases, the geographical locations with good wind resources are not close to the main load centers. It becomes extremely important to assess adequate transmission facility to deliver wind power to the power grid. <p>Wind is a highly variable energy source, and therefore, transmission system planning for wind delivery is very different from conventional transmission planning. Most electric power utilities use a deterministic n-1 criterion in transmission system planning. Deterministic methods cannot recognize the random nature of wind variation that dictates the power generated from wind power sources. This thesis presents probabilistic method to evaluate the contribution of a wind power delivery system to the overall system reliability. The effects of site-specific wind regime, system load, transmission line unavailability, and redundancy on system reliability were studied using a basic system model. The developed method responds to the various system parameters and is capable of assessing the actual system risks. <p>Modern power system aims to provide reliable as well as cost effective power supply to its consumers. Reliability benefits, environmental benefits and operating cost savings from wind power integration should be compared with the associated investment costs in order to determine optimum transmission facility for wind power delivery. This thesis presents the reliability/cost techniques for determining appropriate transmission line capacity to connect a wind farm to a power grid. The effect of transmission system cost, line length, wind regime, wind penetration and customer interruption cost on the optimum transmission line sizing were studied using a basic system model. The methodology and results presented in this thesis should be useful in transmission system planning for delivering wind power to a power system.

Renewable energy policies, such as the Renewable Portfolio Standard, arising from increasing environmental concerns have set very ambitious targets for wind power penetration in electric power systems throughout the world. In many cases, the geographical locations with good wind resources are not close to the main load centers. It becomes extremely important to assess adequate transmission facility to deliver wind power to the power grid. <p>Wind is a highly variable energy source, and therefore, transmission system planning for wind delivery is very different from conventional transmission planning. Most electric power utilities use a deterministic n-1 criterion in transmission system planning. Deterministic methods cannot recognize the random nature of wind variation that dictates the power generated from wind power sources. This thesis presents probabilistic method to evaluate the contribution of a wind power delivery system to the overall system reliability. The effects of site-specific wind regime, system load, transmission line unavailability, and redundancy on system reliability were studied using a basic system model. The developed method responds to the various system parameters and is capable of assessing the actual system risks. <p>Modern power system aims to provide reliable as well as cost effective power supply to its consumers. Reliability benefits, environmental benefits and operating cost savings from wind power integration should be compared with the associated investment costs in order to determine optimum transmission facility for wind power delivery. This thesis presents the reliability/cost techniques for determining appropriate transmission line capacity to connect a wind farm to a power grid. The effect of transmission system cost, line length, wind regime, wind penetration and customer interruption cost on the optimum transmission line sizing were studied using a basic system model. The methodology and results presented in this thesis should be useful in transmission system planning for delivering wind power to a power system.