The ground conditions prevailing on the day of a cricket match is an important confounding variable that results in the majority of cricket analyses requiring qualification. We present a Bayesian method for estimating the value of ground conditions in the absence of a direct measure. We use dynamic programming techniques to estimate models of both the first and second innings and we outline an application for each model. We extract a proxy variable for risk from our first-innings model and we use this variable to successfully estimate the trade-off between scoring rate and the probability of survival for individual batsmen. This enables us to decompose a batsman’s performance into ability and strategic nous. Our second-innings model gives an estimate of a team’s probability of winning at any point in the second innings of the match. We use this variable in conjunction with our ground-conditions variable to outline a new method for adjusting the target score in rain-affected matches. We introduce a simple metric for comparing the performance of various rain rules and we find that our proposed rule outperforms the incumbent Duckworth/Lewis method.

This study estimates the economic costs of mining pollution on water resources for the years 2008 and 2009 based on the conceptual framework of Environmental Efficiency. This framework identifies such costs as the mining companies’ trade-off between increasing production that is saleable at market prices (desirable output) and reducing the environmental pollution that emerges from the production process (undesirable output). These economic costs were calculated from parametric and non parametric production possibility frontiers for 28 and 37 mining units in 2008 and 2009, respectively, which were under the purview of the National Campaign for Environmental Monitoring of Effluent and Water Resources, conducted by the Energy and Mining Investment Supervisory Agency (Osinergmin) in those years. The results show that the economic cost of mining pollution on water resources rose to U.S. $ 814.7 million and U.S. $ 448.8 million for 2008 and 2009, respectively. These economic costs were highly concentrated in a few mining units, within a few pollution parameters, and were also higher in mining units with average/low mineral production. Taking into consideration that at present the fine and penalty system in the mining sector is based on administrative criteria, this study proposes a System of Environmentally Efficient Sanctions based on economic criteria so as to establish a preventive mechanism for pollution. It is hoped that this mechanism will generate the necessary incentives for mining companies to address the negative externalities that emerge from their production process. / En este estudio se aproximan los costos económicos de la contaminación ambiental minera sobre los recursos hídricos para 2008 y 2009 en el marco conceptual de la Eficiencia Medioambiental, que interpreta dichos costos como el trade-off de los empresarios mineros entre incrementar su producción que es vendible a precios de mercado (output deseable) yreducir la contaminación ambiental que se desprende de su proceso productivo (output no deseable). Dichos costos económicos fueron calculados a partir de fronteras de posibilidades de producción paramétricas y no paramétricas para 28 y 37 unidades mineras en los años 2008 y 2009 respectivamente, las que estuvieron bajo el ámbito de la Campaña Nacional deMonitoreo Ambiental de Efluentes y Recursos Hídricos que realizó el Organismo Supervisor de Inversión Energía y Minería (Osinergmin) en dichos años. Los resultados indican que los costos económicos de la contaminación ambiental minera sobre los recursos hídricos ascendieron, en promedio, para los años 2008 y 2009, a US$ 814,7 millones,y US$ 448,8 millones, respectivamente. Dichos costos estuvieron altamente concentrados en pocas unidades productivas, así como en pocos parámetros de contaminación, y fueron mayores en unidades mineras con producción media/baja de minerales. Dado que en la actualidad el sistema de multas y sanciones en el sector minero se basa en criterios administrativos, el estudio propone un Sistema de Sanciones Ambientalmente Eficiente basado en criterios económicos