Text in English / This research study aimed to investigate and provide a comprehensive analysis of Zambia’s whole-of-government monitoring and evaluation system (WoGM&ES) in the context of national development plans (NDPs) within the broader agenda of good governance and poverty reduction. The study considered the period 1964 to 2021—a period covering all the seven (7) NDPs for Zambia since independence. The study focused on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) arrangements in the public sector as articulated in these NDPs and other government policies as well as structural operations. The research was centred on five (5) secondary objectives, namely a) justifying the theoretical significance of Zambia's WoGM&ES to improve public-sector good governance and poverty reduction agenda through the theory of change; b) presenting Zambia as a case study in terms of the results-based WoGM&ES; c) identifying gaps inhibiting the implementation of a results-focused WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector; d) establishing cornerstones necessary for building a results-based WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector; and e) proposing a new model for the enhanced WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector. Striving for functional M&E systems is a global phenomenon that requires commitment by all stakeholders and M&E of development interventions has become a vehicle that assists development agencies globally to demonstrate results to show to their stakeholders and beneficiaries. Thus, the starting point was to contend that M&E had increasingly become a useful tool towards good governance and that more institutions and governments had adopted it. The study then demonstrates how an M&E system, and, more so, a WoGM&ES, was crucial to implementing a thriving M&E culture for any country or organisation. In terms of scope, the study drew respondents from across government functionaries at national, line ministry, province and district level. Respondents from non-state institutions and M&E practitioners were also part of the study. The research was exploratory and investigatory and used the qualitative research approach to guide its design, data collection, collation and analysis, conclusion, recommendations and presentation. Further, purposive sampling was used to select respondents from these various institutions. Data collection benefited through the use of closed and open-ended questions from both secondary and primary sources. Nvivo software, text analysis as well as the analytical tool called LEADS comprised of a 5-point scoring scale were adopted and used for discussion and analysis of field data and information. The analytical instrument adopted to guide the research comprises of six components, namely: i) policy, ii) methodology, iii) organisation, iv) capacity, v) participation of actors outside government, and vi) the use of information from M&E. These components form the diagnostic checklist (analytical framework) used to assess the current status of Zambia’s WoGM&ES. In many ways, Zambia’s public sector system for M&E was found to be weak. At all levels—national, line ministry, provincial and district, M&E arrangements and practice were found to be poor. Both the supply side and the demand side of Zambia’s country level M&E system were unable to provide stakeholders with required and adequate information to inform critical development processes, such as policy-making, decision-making, planning, budgeting, resource allocation and advocacy. Gaps were identified in all the six components of the diagnostic checklist and improvements will be necessary as suggested and recommended under each one of them to make the WoGM&ES viable to meet the expectations of stakeholders. While the supply side of the system was relatively found to be well developed, the demand side was worse off. On the supply side, the study found that the policy and methodology components were fairly well developed. However, the component on the use of information by stakeholders, on the demand side, was found to be poorly developed. Further, various capacities in M&E were acknowledged as lacking across the WoGM&ES. The participation of actors outside government in strengthening the country system for M&E was also found to be weak, in many cases presented with lots of parallel and fragmented stand-alone systems. The policy environment in support of M&E strengthening and expansion was equally reported as one of the key areas that required attention from both political and technical powers that be. Although Zambia’s WoGM&ES was found to be weak in many aspects, it is noteworthy to mention that it has the necessary features for success. The study established that at national level, there were currently efforts to make M&E work in government. Such activities as creating a structure responsible for coordinating M&E across government, automating data management and information flows as well as developing a national M&E policy were reported to be ongoing efforts. To improve and enhance Zambia’s WoGM&ES, this study has proposed a model. Firstly, the new model recommends a structural shift in the manner M&E is coordinated at national level. The presidency was identified as the most appropriate location or entity to hold the responsibility of overseeing the WoGM&ES and in constantly as well as dedicatedly demanding for development results. The model is proposed as a transformational and long term strife and commitment by the current and successive governments. It was established that the current arrangement where the Ministry of National Development Planning (MNDP) was overseeing the WoGM&ES had led to operational gaps related to weak funding to M&E activities and high level policy clout. Generally, there is lack of influence (both political and technical) to spur an M&E transformational agenda for the country, let alone within the public sector. Therefore, the proposed model advances that the presidency will have the motivation and capacity to resolve these weaknesses a great deal. Specifically, the model suggests the establishment of an evaluation structure under the presidency to work as an apex institution to drive and champion the cause for a robust results-based WoGM&ES for the Zambian public sector. To formalise this arrangement, a well-defined M&E legislation will be needed. In addition, the proposed model has made salient recommendations on how to build and strengthen both the supply side and demand side of Zambia’s WoGM&ES. These two sides are considered vital for success of the country system for M&E and government and its stakeholders and partners will do well to invest in building and sustaining the supply and demand sides. In proposing a new architecture for Zambia’s WoGM&ES, the proposed model has acknowledged and incorporated the current positive practices and arrangements. Finally, the study has among others recommended that all government levels should create formal structures mandated to undertake M&E functions. These entities should be equipped with skilled staff in M&E, funding, technologies and relevant equipment. This research has also enriched literature on M&E and its relationship with good governance. Equally, a number of M&E issues such as political, technical and international best practices have been raised to prompt future research and development. / Development Studies / Ph.D. (Development Studies)

The study has empirically examined the relative impact of public and private investment on economic growth and has also tested the crowding in or crowding out effect of public investment on private investment in four Southern African economies – Malawi, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The analysis used annual time-series data covering the period from 1970 to 2014. The study provides new evidence to contribute firstly to the current debate regarding the relative importance of public and private investment in economic growth processes and secondly, on whether public investment crowds in or crowds out private investment in the selected countries. For this purpose, the study employed two empirical models using the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to cointegration. Model 1 examines the relative impact of public and private investment on economic growth while Model 2 investigates the crowding in or crowding out effect of gross public investment and its subcomponents (infrastructural and non-infrastructural) on private investment. The results of Model 1 largely supported the private investment-led economic growth strategy. In all the study countries, private investment had a positive impact on economic growth. Also, public investment positively contributed to economic growth in Zimbabwe, but in the remaining study countries, public investment had a negative relationship with economic growth. Results from Model 2 reveal that: (i) the crowding out effect of gross public investment on private investment predominates in the study countries; (ii) infrastructural public investment crowds in private investment in South Africa and Zimbabwe in the long run while it crowds out private investment in Malawi and Zambia in the short run; and (iii) non-infrastructural public investment crowds out private investment in South Africa and Zambia. On balance, the results from Model 2 show that public investment tends to crowd out private investment in the selected countries and this further underscore the importance of the private sector-led economic growth processes in the study countries. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)