The rapid fertility declines and increases in contraceptive prevalence rates in the last decades in Latin America occurred concurrently with increases in teenage and unintended childbearing. The factors behind, as well as possible future demographic consequences of this unique pattern of fertility change are still poorly understood. This thesis advances knowledge of three aspects of reproductive behaviour in Latin America: dynamics of contraceptive use in relation to an unintended birth experience, educational disparities in motherhood-timing and possible future of cohort fertility. I explore an untapped potential of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Population Censuses for Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Brazil, and employ demographic and statistical modelling techniques that have not been previously fully exploited in the Latin American context. First, I show how the longitudinal DHS reproductive "calendars" can be analysed using event-history models to advance the understanding of contraceptive choices of women who experience unintended pregnancies in Colombia and Peru. The study uncovers the importance of considering patterns of both pre- and after-birth contraceptive behaviour to inform the organization of postpartum family planning programmes in both countries. Second, using census data, I provide the first estimates of cohort first-birth age-specific schedules disaggregated by education level for Ecuador, Colombia and Peru. I document vastly increasing educational disparities in motherhood-timing during the fertility transition and discuss the potential factors behind this process. The analyses uncover a drastic increase in teenage fertility among women who drop-out of secondary school, indicating a need for an intervention. Lastly, using indirectly reconstructed fertility rates from censuses, cohort fertility is forecasted for total population and by education in Brazil. The study shows how a Bayesian model for fertility forecasting can be applied in the Latin American context where the childbearing pattern has been distinct from other world regions and where there is a scarcity of time-series of fertility rates. The study reveals the evolution of educational differences in completed fertility and shows that emerging low period fertility levels in Brazil might not necessarily correspond to women's equally low lifetime fertility in the future. Overall, the substantive findings improve the understanding of the reproductive behaviour disparities in Latin America and serve as inputs for the design of policies to alleviate them. The novel use of data and application of methods are important for the development of future research agendas on fertility change and for the collection of fertility data in the region.

This thesis contains three essays on the impact evaluation of social programs and public sector reforms. Chapter 2 investigates whether the effects of a cash transfer program persist or wear off in the long-run. I study the first two phases of Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) in Ecuador, each of which lasted about five years. My identification strategy uses a regression discontinuity design and relies on the fact that at the threshold of eligibility, the second assignment to treatment (in 2008/9) was independent of the first assignment (in 2003). This allows me to disentangle the impact of a short exposure to the program (treatment during one phase) from a long exposure (treatment during two phases). Most of the gains in enrollment and schooling were achieved in the short-run among children that started treatment when they were about to start elementary school, eleventh grade or Baccalaureate. However, an extended exposure to BDH was not enough to keep raising children's education. Regarding labor market outcomes, BDH had a negative (not statistically significant) impact on the probability of working among young children but did not increase job opportunities among young adults in the long-run. Chapter 3 evaluates the impact on in-hospital mortality of a reform that made all health professionals working part-time switch to full-time contracts at public hospitals in Ecuador. I take advantage of the staggered adoption of the reform and hospital panel data to implement an event study to evaluate the impact of the reform. The results for the sample of admissions to the emergency department show that mortality in public hospitals decreased by 0.1% on the adoption year and by 0.2% one year later. Results were robust to several alternative specifications and to the inclusion of pre-reform characteristics that could have been used by policymakers to decide the order of implementation. More importantly, I show that the effects reported in this paper cannot be attributed to changes in other quality indicators at the hospital level like the length of stay or by changes in the patient mix. Chapter 4 studies the impact of increased liability risk facing physicians on the use of c-sections and on indicators of maternal and infant health. I take advantage of a legal reform that led to the hardening of sentences for cases of professional malpractice in Ecuador. I use a difference-in-difference strategy that compares the outcomes of two neighboring countries, Ecuador and Colombia, before and after the introduction of the reform and perform several parallel trend tests on the outcomes of interest and test for the stability of the demographic composition of both countries to support my identification strategy. During the five quarters following the reform, Ecuadorian doctors reduced the c-section rate by 1.1% among women aged 15 to 24 years, and by 0.9% among women aged 25 to 34 years. The c-section rate remained unaffected for women aged 35 to 44 years, possibly because doctors have less discretion over riskier births. Interestingly, the observed reduction in the c-section rate did not affect the health outcomes of mothers or newborns.

Li, Wei. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 50-53). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / 摘要 --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- The Model --- p.8 / Chapter 2.1. --- Feature of the model --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2. --- Households --- p.9 / Chapter 2.3. --- Firms --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3.1. --- Firms in Non-traded Sector --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3.2. --- Firms in Traded Sector --- p.13 / Chapter 2.4. --- Monetary Policy Rules --- p.14 / Chapter Case I: --- Target the Inflation Rate in Non-Traded Sector (NPT) --- p.15 / Chapter Case II: --- Target the CPI Inflation Rate (CPI) --- p.15 / Chapter Case III: --- Target the Nominal Exchange Rate (FER) --- p.15 / Chapter 2.5. --- Equilibrium --- p.16 / Chapter 3. --- Calibration and Shocks --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1. --- Calibration --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2. --- Shocks --- p.20 / Chapter 4. --- Dynamics of the Model --- p.22 / Chapter 4.1. --- Impulse Response to Sector Technology Shocks --- p.23 / Chapter 4.1.1. --- Technology Shock in the Non-traded Sector --- p.23 / Chapter 4.1.2. --- Technology Shock in the Traded Sector --- p.25 / Chapter 4.2. --- Impulse Response to Foreign Interest Rate Shocks --- p.25 / Chapter 4.3. --- Impulse Response to Terms of Trade Shocks --- p.26 / Chapter 5. --- Welfare Comparison and Consumption Equivalent Analysis --- p.26 / Chapter 5.1. --- Welfare Comparison under Alternative Policy Rule and Debt Level --- p.27 / Chapter 5.2. --- Robustness Check --- p.30 / Chapter 5.3. --- Policy Implications of the findings --- p.34 / Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.35 / Appendix I. Impulse Response to the Shocks --- p.36 / Appendix II. Technical Derivation of the Model --- p.43 / "Appendix III. Equilibrium, Steady State and Shocks" --- p.47

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Thesis (M.A.)--West Virginia University, 2002. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains iv, 70 p. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 62-65).

Thesis (MSD (Social Development and Policy))--University of Pretoria, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (MSD (Social Development and Policy))--University of Pretoria, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2000. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 143-148). Available also in a digital version from Dissertation Abstracts.

Thesis (M.P.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 86-90).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references. Available also from UMI Company.