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Magister Commercii - MCom / Previous research pertaining to the financial aspect of the mining industry has focused predominantly on mining products' values and the companies' sensitivity to exchange rates. There has been very little empirical research carries out in the field of the statistical behaviour of mning companies' cash flow data. This paper aimed to study the time-series behaviour of the cash flow data series of JSE listed mining companies. / South Africa

Background Previous measurements of preventable death in hospital do not account for the uncertainty of preventability ratings. Objective To determine the proportion of deaths in hospital that a have high probability of being prevented with high quality care. Methods We created summaries for every death at a tertiary care hospital over 4-months. Four reviewers assigned preventability ratings to each death and latent class analysis was used to classify deaths into high and low preventability categories. Results There were 480 decedents with mean age of 73.9. Inter-rater reliability was poor with an intra-class correlation of 0.14. The best latent class model found that 6.2% (95% CI 0.00 – 15.2%) of deaths had a 31.0% probability of being rated more likely preventable than not by each reviewer. In contrast, 93.8% (95% CI 84.8 - 100.0%) of deaths had a 0.8% probability of being rated more likely preventable than not by each reviewer. The incidence of truly preventable deaths is less than the 6.2% that are deemed possibly preventable. xi Conclusion Very few deaths in hospital are preventable. The low incidence of preventable deaths and low inter-rater reliability means that peer review methodology is only sensitive to large differences in preventable death rate.

Current North American water pricing practices are inefficient because they are based on average utility expenditures rather than marginal costs and because they typically neglect factors such as the cyclicity of demands, the time of consumption and the value of the water resource. Despite strong criticisms of these practices (Hirshleifer, DeHaven and Milliman, 1960; Pearse, 1985) and the presence of well articulated theoretical models of efficient pricing alternatives (eg., peak-load pricing) no empirical study has been done to document the magnitude of the efficiency gains from altering water prices. A simulation program computes the impact upon a representative water utility's output and deficit and upon aggregate consumer surplus of a move from current practice to efficient prices. The program is based on the estimated costs of supply and demand for water for the city of Vancouver, Canada. A time series of quarterly observations for the period 1975-1986 is used to estimate short and long run marginal costs. The estimated cost structure of the utility is also used to test for optimal employment of its fixed factors: water in storage and capital. Cross-sectional data sets are used to estimate market demands for residential and industrial users. The estimation results indicate that long run marginal cost exceeds short run costs by a large margin and that there is some evidence of over-capitalization by the utility. Water demands are seen to be inelastic for indoor and outdoor residential consumption but are elastic for industrial consumption. Simulation results show that a move to seasonally differentiated pricing (with an annual charge calculated to recoup the resulting deficit) raises aggregate surplus by approximately 4%. Conversely, a move from current practice to Ramsey prices leads to a decrease in aggregate consumer surplus of approximately 13%. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

Most studies in the area of ocean shipping are descriptive. Certain aspects of tramp shipping have been subjected to empirical analysis, but few authors have been concerned with an objective study of the behaviour of charter rates. The major purpose of this thesis is to analyse the behaviour of tramp shipping rates over the years 1960 -1968, and to discover what impact the forces of supply and demand had on voyage and time charter rates during those years. To accomplish this objective, the thesis is divided into two distinct parts: the first half of the text is confined to identifying the various markets that exist in the shipping industry today. Incorporated with this discussion are pertinent facts and figures that exemplify the changing pattern of vessel ownership within the industry, as well as the impressive growth and diversification of the various facets of ocean shipping. The second half of the text is concerned with a statistical analysis of tramp charter rates, ie., voyage and time charters. Monthly data were gathered on several variables of supply and demand in the shipping industry. The relationships between these variables and charter rates were examined in four distinct categories: 1. between the various categories of rates, ie., voyage, time and tanker rates. 2. the relationship between laid up tonnage and charter rates. 3. the relationship between charter rates and the various stages of activity in the shipyards, ie., ship ordering, ship launching and ship completions. 4. the relationship between the demand for shipping space, as indicated by world sea trade, and charter rates. A number of hypotheses concerning the economic behaviour of charter rates with respect to these variables were formulated and tested by means of a series of multiple regression models to determine whether these hypotheses could be accepted or rejected. Initial tests produced what appeared to be some significant results. However, these proved to have high autocorrelation in the residuals. Following more rigorous testing to remove the autocorrelation, the relationships broke down and the hypotheses had to be rejected. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The purpose of this study is twofold: first, to determine whether the level of passenger fares effective on the North Atlantic routes bears close relationship to the cost of operating these routes; and, second, to test a hypothesis that rate making under the International Air Transport Association regulations on the North Atlantic results in a passenger fare/ cost spread in excess of that existing in the Canadian transcontinental commercial air service. While these objectives are intended to reflect general relationships which have existed for some time in both of these markets, only recent statistics are employed to exemplify them. The 1966 data are used throughout the study supplemented by 1965 and 1967 information where deemed necessary. The assumption is made that the aircraft operating costs, or direct costs, incurred in airline operations on the North Atlantic in 1966 were similar to those experienced in providing the Canadian transcontinental service as the aircraft used (DC-8 category) and the average stage length of the routes were similar in both markets. However, as demonstrated through the study, there are differences in the regulatory and economic conditions between the two markets which might have influenced development of these markets, resulting in different application of pricing principles in each. The cost and performance data for selected types of turbo-jet and turbo-fan powered aircraft operated by U.S. carriers on International/ Territorial routes in 1966 are tabulated and analyzed by individual cost category. The analysis progresses from general grouping to specific types of DC-8 equipment and to cost analysis of Pan American World Airways Inc. flying DC-8 aircraft on Atlantic routes in that year. A comparative analysis is first performed on statistics relating U.S. international and Canadian North Atlantic cost experience in 1966. The second part is concerned with comparison of cost levels between Canadian North Atlantic and transcontinental services. In the final phase, various cost concepts are introduced and the available data grouped according to criteria of direct and indirect costs, out-of-pocket and fully allocated cost categories. The fully allocated costs of the North Atlantic and transcontinental Canadian services are compared with passenger fares effective in each market in 1966. It is concluded that the level of passenger fares effective on the North Atlantic routes in 1966 bore very little relationship to the cost of airline operations in that market in the same year. An example presented in the thesis indicates that one-way economy passenger fare between Montreal and London was set at 140 per cent of fully allocated cost of operating this route, at the average load factor of 60.3 per cent. The cost/fare spread in the North Atlantic services, at 40 per cent over fully allocated cost of operation, is much higher than that experienced in the Canadian transcontinental service, at 15 per cent over fully allocated cost. While the conclusions might be valid for other IATA carriers operating on the North Atlantic, it must be borne in mind that only Canadian and U.S. carriers’ cost and performance data were analyzed in the thesis. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The three chapters of this thesis address two questions. First, how are real and nominal exchange rates between different national currencies determined? Second, how does this determination influ- ence the international transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations and, especially, monetary policy disturbances? Chapter 1 comprises an empirical evaluation of long-run purchasing power parity as a theory of equilibrium nominal exchange rate determination for the post-Bretton Woods data. Structural time series methods are used to identify bivariate moving average representations of nominal exchange rates and relative goods prices and to test whether these empirical representations are consistent with the implications of purchasing power parity. Long-run purchasing power parity can be un ambiguously rejected for the G- 7 countries. There are permanent deviations from parity which account for almost all of the variance of real exchange rates, and which are driven by permanent disturbances to nominal rates which are never reflected in relative goods prices. Chapter 2 presents an empirical evaluation of the hypothesis that the global Depression of the 1930’s was attributable to international transmission of (idiosyncratic) U.S. monetary policy actions through the International Gold Exchange Standard - fixed exchange rate - regime. Specifically, the analysis evaluates whether the interwar output collapse in Canada was caused by transmitted U.S. monetary policy disturbances. A multivariate structural time series representation of the Cana dian macroeconomy is estimated which is consistent with the dynamic and long-run equilibrium properties of a Mundell- Fleming small open economy model and in which U.S. data represent the ‘rest of the world’. The empirical results show that U.S. monetary disturbances play a negligible role for both Canadian and U.S. output movements in the 1930’s. Permanent common real shocks to outputs can account for the onset, depth and duration of the Depression in both economies. There is little evidence to support a Gold-Standard transmitted global output collapse through the transmission mechanisms usually associated with purchasing power parity theories of real exchange rate determination. Chapter 3 develops an alternative theory of real and nominal exchange rate determination and of the international transmision mechanism which can account for many stylized facts regarding the empirical behaviour of real and nominal exchange rates that long-run purchasing power parity fails to explain. In a two-country, two-currency overlapping generations model, the role of optimal portfolio choices between internationally traded assets is emphasized - rather than goods market trade - as the source of currency demands. These demands, and supplied of assets generated by domestic monetary policies, determine both real and nominal exchange rates. Here, monetary policy changes can induce permanent international and intra-national reallocations through real exchange rate and real interest rate adjustments. This transmission mechanism differs markedly from that implied by purchasing power parity. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Our society has become heavily dependent on inputs of energy. Recently, however, concern has been expressed that the future supply of energy will be inadequate to meet our demands. It seems that future supplies of energy will be available only at relatively high cost. Moreover, conscious public policy attempts to reduce consumption may be attempted by raising the price of energy. A problem arises in the equitable distribution of our energy resources. To understand the equity issue and the price elasticity of demand question, a study was undertaken of the patterns of electricity consumption among residential consumers in Vancouver. The hypotheses proposed are that the proportion of income devoted to electricity consumption declines as income increases; the demand for electricity is price elastic; and, the ability to reduce electricity consumption increases with income. The methodology used to study these questions involved two steps. Firstly, a questionnaire was administered to 291 Vancouver households to identify variables potentially significant in determining, residential electricity consumption. Questions were also asked to determine perceptions of the ability or willingness to reduce or increase electricity consumption patterns under various hypothetical price intervention policies. Secondly, electricity consumption histories were obtained from B.C. Hydro and Power Authority for these 291 respondents. The study shows that absolute electricity consumption is not significantly affected by income. Hence, the proportion of income devoted to electricity declines as income increases. Secondly, it was found that the demand for electricity is sensitive to price increases, but not to price decreases. Thirdly, low income consumers are less responsive to price increases in electricity. They are less willing/able to switch from electricity to natural gas as a fuel source, and are less willing/ able to reduce electricity consumption levels when the price is increased. The results indicate that across the board price increases in electricity will bear very heavily on the poor. Various price schemes were examined with respect to their implications for equity, allocative efficiency and environmental quality. The preferred scheme sets allocative efficiency and environmental quality as constraints. Included in the package is a redistribution of income to achieve equity. The second best alternatives are pricing based on income and increasing block pricing. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

When a customer requests a discount fare, the airline must decide whether to sell the seat at the requested discount or to hold the seat in hope that a customer will arrive later who will pay more. I model this situation for a single leg flight with multiple fare classes and customers who arrive according to a semi-Markov process (possibly nonhomogeneous). These customers can request multiple seats (batch requests) and can be overbooked. Under certain conditions, I show that the value function decreases as departure approaches. If each customer only requests a single seat or if the requests can be partially satisfied, then I show that there are optimal booking curves which decrease as departure approaches. I provide counterexamples to show that this structural property of the optimal policy does not hold in general. When customers are allowed to cancel I show that booking curves exist and may be monotone in certain cases. I also consider the situation where the customer's request size and fare offered are not known, but their joint probability distribution is available, and show that under certain conditions existence of booking curves obtains, and that under further assumptions, they are monotone. Finally, the theoretical results are used in realistic numerical examples, which are compared to certain deterministic upper bounds and revenues obtained under heuristic policies. The airline yield management problem described above is an instance of a generic revenue management problem, which, in turn, can be cast into a finite horizon semi-Markov dynamic optimal control problem. I provide examples of other applications of revenue management. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

M.Com. (Transport Economics) / It has been noticed that business class travel on South African Airways domestic services is continuously declining. In contrast to this, promotional! travel, that is leisure travel, is becoming more important and significant It is also suspected that the current domestic fares structure of South African Airways ignores certain market factors. The aim of this study is to ascertain whether or not the current domestic fares policy followed by South African Airways, which is reflected in the domestic fares structure, should be changed to the greater benefit of both the air transport user and South African Airways. The objective of establishing guidelines for a long-term fares policy, has been kept in mind throughout the study ....