We employ OLS analysis on a VAR Model to test the “commodity currency” hypothesis of the Rand (i.e. that the currency moves in sympathy with commodity prices) and examine the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address the question of cointegration using the Engle-Granger test. We find that level series of both assets are difference stationary but not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables negatively related with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity to the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time. For monetary policy makers, to manage commodity price risk and concentration risk on the country’s exports, we suggest establishment of a selfinsurance scheme such as a Commodity Stabilisation Fund established in Chile in 1985.

by O'Yang Wiley. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1990. / Bibliography: leaves 44-45. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- TIME SERIES AND UNIT ROOT --- p.5 / Definitions --- p.5 / Difference Between 1(0) and 1(1) Processes --- p.8 / Chapter III. --- FORMULATION OF LONG RUN FISHER OPEN HYPOTHESIS … --- p.10 / Chapter IV. --- UNIT ROOT TESTS --- p.14 / Dickey and Fuller Test --- p.14 / Augmented Dickey and Fuller Test --- p.16 / Phillips and Perron Test --- p.16 / Finite Sample Properties of Regression / Unit Root Tests --- p.18 / Chapter V. --- UNIT ROOT TEST RESULTS --- p.20 / Tentative ARIMA Model for the Interest Rate Series --- p.21 / Hong Kong --- p.21 / Singapore --- p.22 / Malaysia --- p.22 / Philippines and Japan --- p.23 / Tentative ARIMA Model for the Interest Rate Differentials --- p.23 / Hong Kong-Malaysia --- p.23 / Hong Kong-Singapore --- p.24 / Singapore-Malaysia --- p.24 / Others --- p.24 / Unit Root Test Results --- p.24 / Discussions and Findings --- p.36 / Chapter VI. --- CONCLUSIONS AND AREAS OF FURTHER RESEARCH --- p.40 / APPENDIX --- p.43 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.44

Law Hing Tung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 93-97). / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.i / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.viii / Chapter CHAPTER 1: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter CHAPTER 2: --- HISTORICAL BACKGROUND --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Hong Kong --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Korea --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3 --- Singapore --- p.12 / Chapter 2.4 --- Taiwan --- p.14 / Chapter CHAPTER 3: --- LITERATURE REVIEWS --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Behavior of Real Interest Rate --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- Short Run Real Interest Rate Parity --- p.21 / Chapter 3.3 --- Long Run Real Interest Rate Parity --- p.27 / Chapter CHAPTER 4: --- METHODOLOGY --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1 --- Definition --- p.32 / Chapter 4.2 --- Testing for Unit Roots --- p.34 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- The Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test --- p.34 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test --- p.37 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- The Phillips-Perron Test --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Testing for Structural Change --- p.40 / Chapter 4.3 --- Tests for the Real Interest Rate Parity (RIRP) --- p.42 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Tests for the Short-run RIRP --- p.42 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Tests for the Long-run RIRP --- p.44 / Chapter CHAPTER 5: --- DATA --- p.47 / Chapter CHAPTER 6: --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.49 / Chapter 6.1 --- Individual Real Interest Rates 一 Descriptive Statistics --- p.49 / Chapter 6.2 --- Stationarity of Real Interest Rates --- p.58 / Chapter 6.2.1 --- Monthly Results --- p.58 / Chapter 6.2.2 --- Quarterly Results --- p.59 / Chapter 6.2.3 --- Unit Root Test with Structural Break --- p.64 / Chapter 6.3 --- Short-run Real Interest Rate Parity --- p.68 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- Monthly Results --- p.68 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- Quarterly Results --- p.71 / Chapter 6.4 --- Long-run Real Interest Rate Parity --- p.71 / Chapter 6.4.1 --- Real Interest Rate Differentials ´ؤ Descriptive Statistics --- p.71 / Chapter 6.4.2 --- Ordinary Least Square Regression Test --- p.78 / Chapter 6.4.3 --- Unit Root Tests for Real Interest Rate Differentials --- p.79 / Chapter CHAPTER 7： --- IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS --- p.89 / Chapter 7.1 --- Implications --- p.89 / Chapter 7.2 --- Conclusions --- p.91 / REFERENCES --- p.93 / APPENDIX --- p.98

Lin Haizhen. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 58-61). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter I. --- Essay One --- p.1 / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.2 / Chapter 2 --- A CIA Model with Endogenous Investment --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Economic Environment --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Equilibrium Dynamics --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- An Extended Model with Stockman CIA Constraint --- p.16 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Economic Environment --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- Equilibrium Dynamics --- p.19 / Chapter 4 --- Conclusion --- p.22 / Chapter II. --- Essay Two --- p.25 / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.26 / Chapter 2 --- A MIUF Model with Non-Separable Leisure --- p.28 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Economic Environment --- p.28 / Chapter 2.2 --- Equilibrium and Local Dynamics --- p.31 / Chapter 3 --- Conclusion --- p.36 / Chapter III. --- Essay Three --- p.38 / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.39 / Chapter 2 --- Productive Money and Investment in a Sticky Price Model --- p.41 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Economic Environment --- p.41 / Chapter 2.2 --- Equilibrium Dynamics --- p.45 / Chapter 3 --- Endogenous Labor Supply --- p.50 / Chapter 4 --- Conclusion --- p.56 / Chapter IV. --- References --- p.58

No description available.

This thesis is comprised of three essays that examine the impact of economic deterioration on the economy and society. It focuses on the interrelations among several socio-economic ills examined: sovereign defaults, excessive public debt, absence of economic growth and suicides. In an attempt to provide a holistic view of the topics covered, a combination of both economic and political explanatory variables are used. After discussing in Chapter 1 the motivation for this thesis, the Global Financial Crisis of 2007, Chapter 2, investigated the determinants of sovereign defaults. With the help of a logit regression and using a variety of political and economic variables, we show that both types of variables determine whether a county will default or not. Various robustness tests were also carried out that confirm these findings. In Chapter 3, the effect of the IMF intervention, once a country has defaulted, on its economic growth is investigated. The IMF intervention is measured as a dummy and the method used is the two stage least squares regression, where the instruments are the level of democracy and the UN Security council temporary membership. The findings suggest that the lagged effect of IMF rather than its contemporaneous effect is positive with respect to economic growth. In Chapter 4, the focus is on the sociological effects of the IMF intervention, with the dependent variable being suicide rates. The data sample has been split in many different ways, such as males/females, and the results of the research show that IMF intervention, unemployment and abortions increase suicides whereas alcohol consumption decreases them.

Li Ka-fai. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 62-67). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / 摘要 --- p.iii / Acknowledgements --- p.iv / Table of Contents --- p.v / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- A Neoclassical Monetary Growth Model with Investment --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Economic Environment --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Equilibrium Dynamics --- p.13 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- The Clower-Lucas Model --- p.14 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- The Stockman Model --- p.19 / Chapter 2.3 --- Extension --- p.25 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- An Endogenous AK Monetary Growth Model --- p.30 / Chapter 3.1 --- Local Analysis --- p.33 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- The Clower-Lucas Model --- p.33 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- The Stockman Model --- p.35 / Chapter 3.2 --- Global Analysis --- p.40 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Conclusion --- p.47 / Tables / Table 1 Summary of selective literature and its comparison --- p.49 / Table 2 Regions for local indeterminacy under passive rules for the neoclassical growth model --- p.52 / Table 3 Regions for local indeterminacy under passive rules for the one-sector endogenous growth model --- p.53 / Table 4 Range of policy rules parameter for generating multiple balanced growth paths (Global indeterminacy) in the one-sector endogenous growth model --- p.54 / Figures / "Figure 1 Taylor Rules, Zero Bound on nominal interest rate and liquidity Trap" --- p.55 / Figure 2 The quadratic problem in condition (c) --- p.56 / Figure 3 Phase diagram under active rules for the one-sector endogenous growth model --- p.57 / Figure 4 Phase diagram under passive rules for the one-sector endogenous growth model --- p.58 / Appendices: / Appendix 1 Condition for guaranteeing the existence of real roots --- p.59 / Appendix 2 Condition for non-negativity of nominal interest rate --- p.60 / References --- p.62

Abstract not available

Abstract This study belongs to one part of FATES research program, which studies the fate of terrestrial substances in Kaoping river-sea system. The task is to study the components and properties of sediments and spatial distribution of sedimentation rates off the southwest Taiwan by analyzing water content, TOC, CaCO3, grain size, P-wave velocity and radionuclides 210Pb and 137Cs in sediments. Thirty cores collected for this study were divided into three groups based on topography and they are Kaoping continental shelf, slope and canyon. The highest TOC content is 1.53 % in ORI732-ST31 and TOC content ranges from 0.20~0.93 % for the rest of sediments from other stations. The highest CaCO3 content is found in ORI732-ST18, 30, ORI779-ST1, and ST12. Most of the CaCO3 content is greater than 4% at these four stations. Probably because of the lower sedimentation rates that result in less terrestrial substances for diluting the CaCO3. In the shelf and slope regions, the distribution of grain size progressively decreases as the water depth increases. Grain size in the stations farther down the canyon, however, is coarser than those at upper canyon. It suggests that there is other sediment source for stations in the canyon in addition to the Kaoping river. The sedimentation rates derived from 210Pbex profiles range from 0.073~0.168 cm/yr in shelf, 0.033~0.670 and 0.094~0.411 cm/yr in continental slope and canyon, respectively. Sedimentation rates are all less than 0.2 cm/yr in the shelf area, but there are five stations with sedimentation rates higher than 0.2 cm/yr in the slope and canyon areas. Among the five stations, the sedimentation rate is up to 0.670 cm/yr (ORI779-ST9), suggesting that 302~822 m deep in the slope and 975~1156 m deep in the canyon are the deposition centers. In some stations, anomalously low 210Pbex activities exist in surface or sub-surface sediments, indicating that the low 210Pbex activity sediments may be typhoon-induced turbidite sediments. According to Central Weather Bureau¡¦s typhoon catalog, in the year of coring there were seven typhoons striking Taiwan. Among these typhoons, Hai-tang was the strongest one, suggesting that the turbidite sediments mentioned above were likely caused by typhoon Hai-tang. Besides, turbidite sediments appear at water depth of over 700 m, indicating episodic turbidite events are an important way to transport particles offshore.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Florida, 2006. / Title from title page of source document. Document formatted into pages; contains 98 pages. Includes vita. Includes bibliographical references.