Monitoring and mapping the presence and/or intensity of an environmental hazard through space, is an essential part of public health surveillance. Radon, a naturally occurring radioactive carcinogenic gas, is an environmental hazard that is both the greatest source of natural radiation exposure in human populations and the second leading cause of lung cancer worldwide. Concentrations of radon can accumulate in an indoor setting, and, though there is no safe concentration, various guideline values from different countries, organizations and regions provide differing threshold concentrations that are often used to delineate geographic areas at higher risk. Radon maps demarcate geographic areas more prone to higher concentrations but can underestimate or overestimate indoor radon risk depending on the concentration threshold used. The goals of this thesis are to map indoor radon risk in the province of British Columbia, identify areas more prone to higher concentrations and their associations with different radon concentration thresholds and lung cancer mortality trends. The first analysis was concerned with developing a data-driven method to predict and map ordinal classes of indoor radon vulnerability at aggregated spatial units. Spatially referenced indoor radon concentration data were used to define low, medium and high classes of radon vulnerability, which were then linked to regional environmental and housing data derived from existing geospatial datasets. A balanced random forests algorithm was used to model environmental predictors of indoor radon vulnerability and predict values for un-sampled locations. A model was generated and evaluated using accuracy, precision, and kappa statistics. We investigated the influence of predictor variables through variable importance and partial dependence plots. The model performed 34% better than a random classifier. Increased probabilities of high vulnerability were found to be associated with cold and dry winters, close proximity to major river systems, and fluvioglacial and colluvial soil parent materials. The Kootenays and Columbia-Shuswap regions were most at risk. We built upon the first analysis by assessing the difference between temporal trends in lung cancer mortality associated with areas of differing predicted radon risk. We assessed multiple scenarios of risk by using eight different radon concentration thresholds, ranging from 50 to 600 Bq m-3, to define low and high radon vulnerability. We then examined how the following parameters changed with the use of a different concentration threshold: the classification accuracy of each radon vulnerability model, the geographic characterizations of high risk, the population within high risk areas and the differences in lung cancer mortality trends between high and low vulnerability stratified by sex and smoking prevalence. We found the classification accuracy of the model improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. The majority of the population were found to live in areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m-3 were associated with higher lung cancer mortality trends, even in areas with relatively low smoking prevalence. Lung cancer mortality trends were increasing through time for women, while decreasing for men. We suggest a reference level as low as 50 Bq m-3 is justified for the province. / Graduate

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto radiológico atmosférico da Unidade de Concentrado de Urânio URA, Caetité, BA, através da modelagem da dispersão de radionuclídeos e a estimativa da dose efetiva anual (em mSv.ano-1). Para tal, utilizou-se o programa MILDOS-AREA que foi desenvolvido pelo Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) em conjunto com a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico nas instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio. O incremento de dose efetiva anual para três grupos críticos hipotéticos e oito grupos populacionais reais foi estimado com base na medida de fluxos de radônio e na estimativa das concentrações de radionuclídeos em particulados no ar dos principais termos fontes da URA (cava da mina, depósito de estéril e britador). Paralelamente, as medidas de concentração de radônio e taxa de kerma no ar, reportadas nos relatórios dos programas de monitoração ambiental pré-operacional (PMAPO) e operacional (PMAO) da URA, foram avaliadas. Os valores de dose efetiva anual estimados para os grupos críticos hipotéticos variaram de 1,78E-02 a 2,10E-02 mSv.ano-1, enquanto que para os grupos populacionais, variaram de 7,49E-05 a 1,56E-02 mSv.ano-1. A maior contribuição para o incremento da dose foi devida a inalação do radônio, sendo responsável por quase a totalidade da dose efetiva anual estimada. A média da concentração de atividade de radônio no entorno da URA foi 137,21 Bq m-3 e não sendo observada diferenças significativas entre as concentrações de radônio reportadas nos programas de monitoramento ambiental pré-operacional (valores de background) e operacional. Os valores médios de taxa de kerma no ar no entorno da URA foram de 0,136 μGy h-1. No entanto, em todos os pontos de monitoramento, os valores reportados no programa operacional foram inferiores aos valores reportados no programa pré-operacional (background), o que sugere problemas de medidas ou de coleta de dados durante a realização deste programa. O operador da URA utilizou para avaliação de impacto radiológico atmosférico, resultados apresentados em seus relatórios finais de análise de segurança (RFAS), um modelo próprio de simulação de dispersão, denominado Impacto Ambiental Radiológico (IAR7). Uma comparação entre o MILDOS-AREA e o IAR7, utilizando os mesmos parâmetros de entrada reportados no RFAS sugere que o IAR7 subestimou as concentrações de radônio no ar para os grupos críticos hipotéticos. Os resultados de simulação com o MILDOS-AREA mostram que as doses efetivas estimadas para os grupos críticos hipotéticos são inferiores a 0,3 mSv.ano-1 que é a restrição de dose estabelecida pela Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear. Recomenda-se que o código MILDOS-AREA seja utilizado no Brasil, para fins de licenciamento e controle, tendo em vista que o mesmo é um código validado e já utilizado em outros países para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico em instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio / This work aimed to evaluate the atmospheric radiological impact of the Uranium Concentration Unit - URA, Caetité, BA, by modeling the dispersion of radionuclides and estimating the annual effective dose (in mSv.year-1). For this purpose, we used the MILDOS-AREA program that was developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) jointly with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) specifically to evaluate the atmospheric radiological impact of uranium mining and processing facilities. Taking into account estimative of particulate radionuclide concentration and radon flux measurements performed in the main source-terms of URA (open pit, heap leaching and tailing deposit), we estimated the increase of annual effective dose for three hypothetical critical groups and eight population groups. In addition, we evaluated results of radon activity concentration and kerma rate concentration in air reported in the pre-operational environmental monitoring program (PMAPO) and in the operational environmental monitoring programs (PMAO) from URA. The estimated annual effective dose to the hypothetical critical groups ranged from 1,78E-02 a 2,10E-02 mSv.year-1. For real populations, effective doses ranged from 7,49E-05 to 1,56E-02 mSv.year-1. The largest contribution to the total dose was due to inhalation of radon, accounting for almost the entire estimated annual effective dose. The average radon activity concentration in the vicinity of the URA was 137.21 Bq m-3 and there was no apparent difference between the radon concentrations reported in the pre-operational environmental monitoring program (background values) and post-operational. The average values of kerma rate in air surrounding the URA were 0.136 μGy h-1. However, for all the monitoring points, the values reported in operational environmental monitoring program were lower than the values reported in pre-operational environmental monitoring program (background), suggesting measurements or data collection problems during the pre-operational program. The miner industry used in their final report of safety analysis (RFAS), a proper dispersion model simulation, called Environmental Impact Radiological (IAR7). A comparison between the MILDOS-AREA and the IAR7 using the same input parameters in IAR7 suggested that IAR7 underestimated the radon concentrations in the air to the hypothetical critical groups. In conclusion, MILDOS-AREA simulation showed that the estimated effective doses for the hypothetical critical groups are less than 0.3 mSv.year-1, which is the operational dose limit to the public established by the National Nuclear Energy Commission. It is recommended that the MILDOS-AREA code should be used in Brazil, considering that it is a validated code and already used in other countries to assess atmospheric radiological impact on mining and uranium processing facilities

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto radiológico atmosférico da Unidade de Concentrado de Urânio URA, Caetité, BA, através da modelagem da dispersão de radionuclídeos e a estimativa da dose efetiva anual (em mSv.ano-1). Para tal, utilizou-se o programa MILDOS-AREA que foi desenvolvido pelo Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) em conjunto com a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico nas instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio. O incremento de dose efetiva anual para três grupos críticos hipotéticos e oito grupos populacionais reais foi estimado com base na medida de fluxos de radônio e na estimativa das concentrações de radionuclídeos em particulados no ar dos principais termos fontes da URA (cava da mina, depósito de estéril e britador). Paralelamente, as medidas de concentração de radônio e taxa de kerma no ar, reportadas nos relatórios dos programas de monitoração ambiental pré-operacional (PMAPO) e operacional (PMAO) da URA, foram avaliadas. Os valores de dose efetiva anual estimados para os grupos críticos hipotéticos variaram de 1,78E-02 a 2,10E-02 mSv.ano-1, enquanto que para os grupos populacionais, variaram de 7,49E-05 a 1,56E-02 mSv.ano-1. A maior contribuição para o incremento da dose foi devida a inalação do radônio, sendo responsável por quase a totalidade da dose efetiva anual estimada. A média da concentração de atividade de radônio no entorno da URA foi 137,21 Bq m-3 e não sendo observada diferenças significativas entre as concentrações de radônio reportadas nos programas de monitoramento ambiental pré-operacional (valores de background) e operacional. Os valores médios de taxa de kerma no ar no entorno da URA foram de 0,136 μGy h-1. No entanto, em todos os pontos de monitoramento, os valores reportados no programa operacional foram inferiores aos valores reportados no programa pré-operacional (background), o que sugere problemas de medidas ou de coleta de dados durante a realização deste programa. O operador da URA utilizou para avaliação de impacto radiológico atmosférico, resultados apresentados em seus relatórios finais de análise de segurança (RFAS), um modelo próprio de simulação de dispersão, denominado Impacto Ambiental Radiológico (IAR7). Uma comparação entre o MILDOS-AREA e o IAR7, utilizando os mesmos parâmetros de entrada reportados no RFAS sugere que o IAR7 subestimou as concentrações de radônio no ar para os grupos críticos hipotéticos. Os resultados de simulação com o MILDOS-AREA mostram que as doses efetivas estimadas para os grupos críticos hipotéticos são inferiores a 0,3 mSv.ano-1 que é a restrição de dose estabelecida pela Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear. Recomenda-se que o código MILDOS-AREA seja utilizado no Brasil, para fins de licenciamento e controle, tendo em vista que o mesmo é um código validado e já utilizado em outros países para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico em instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio / This work aimed to evaluate the atmospheric radiological impact of the Uranium Concentration Unit - URA, Caetité, BA, by modeling the dispersion of radionuclides and estimating the annual effective dose (in mSv.year-1). For this purpose, we used the MILDOS-AREA program that was developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) jointly with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) specifically to evaluate the atmospheric radiological impact of uranium mining and processing facilities. Taking into account estimative of particulate radionuclide concentration and radon flux measurements performed in the main source-terms of URA (open pit, heap leaching and tailing deposit), we estimated the increase of annual effective dose for three hypothetical critical groups and eight population groups. In addition, we evaluated results of radon activity concentration and kerma rate concentration in air reported in the pre-operational environmental monitoring program (PMAPO) and in the operational environmental monitoring programs (PMAO) from URA. The estimated annual effective dose to the hypothetical critical groups ranged from 1,78E-02 a 2,10E-02 mSv.year-1. For real populations, effective doses ranged from 7,49E-05 to 1,56E-02 mSv.year-1. The largest contribution to the total dose was due to inhalation of radon, accounting for almost the entire estimated annual effective dose. The average radon activity concentration in the vicinity of the URA was 137.21 Bq m-3 and there was no apparent difference between the radon concentrations reported in the pre-operational environmental monitoring program (background values) and post-operational. The average values of kerma rate in air surrounding the URA were 0.136 μGy h-1. However, for all the monitoring points, the values reported in operational environmental monitoring program were lower than the values reported in pre-operational environmental monitoring program (background), suggesting measurements or data collection problems during the pre-operational program. The miner industry used in their final report of safety analysis (RFAS), a proper dispersion model simulation, called Environmental Impact Radiological (IAR7). A comparison between the MILDOS-AREA and the IAR7 using the same input parameters in IAR7 suggested that IAR7 underestimated the radon concentrations in the air to the hypothetical critical groups. In conclusion, MILDOS-AREA simulation showed that the estimated effective doses for the hypothetical critical groups are less than 0.3 mSv.year-1, which is the operational dose limit to the public established by the National Nuclear Energy Commission. It is recommended that the MILDOS-AREA code should be used in Brazil, considering that it is a validated code and already used in other countries to assess atmospheric radiological impact on mining and uranium processing facilities