Thesis (M.S.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 158-159). / xv, 159 leaves, bound ill., maps 29 cm

As a global climate phenomenon, the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) involves the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere. Most climate prediction studies have, by far, only investigated the teleconnections between global climatic anomalies and the ???surface??? predictors of ENSO. The prediction models resulting from these studies have generally suffered from inadequate, if not the lack of, skill across the so-called boreal ???spring barrier???. This is illustrated in the first part of this thesis where the applicability of the SOI phase for long-lead rainfall projections in Australia is discussed. With the increasing availability of subsurface ocean temperature data, the characteristics of the Pacific Ocean???s heat content and its role in ENSO are now better understood. The second part of this thesis investigated the predictability of ENSO using the thermocline as a predictor. While the persistence and SST-based ENSO hindcasts dropped in skill across the spring barrier, the thermocline-based hindcasts remained skillful even up to a lag of eighteen months. Continuing on the favorable results of ENSO prediction, the third part of this thesis extended the use of the thermocline in the prediction of Australia???s rainfall and streamflow. When compared to models that use ???surface??? predictors, the model that incorporated thermocline information resulted in more skillful projections of rainfall and streamflow especially at long lead-times. More importantly, significant increases in skill of autumn and winter projections demonstrate the ability of the subsurface ocean to retain some climatic memory across the predictability barrier. This resilience can be attributed to the high persistence of the ocean heat content during the first half of the year. Based on weighting, the model averaging exercise also affirmed the superiority of the ???subsurface??? model over the ???surface??? models in terms of streamflow projections. The encouraging findings of this study could have far-reaching implications not only to the science of ENSO prediction but also to the more pragmatic realm of hydrologic forecasting. What this study has demonstrated is an alternative predictor that is suitable for the long range forecasting of ENSO, rainfall and streamflow. With better hydrologic forecasting comes significant improvement in the management of reservoirs which eventually leads to an increase in the reliability and sufficiency of water supply provision.

Bibliography: leaves 320-343 / xxxi, 343 leaves [6] folded leaves [103] leaves of plates : ill. (some col.), maps ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, 1983

Mawson Lakes is a new suburban housing development, situated 12 kms from the city of Adelaide in South Australia. The developers, the Mawson Lakes Joint Venture (MLJV), and the local council, the City of Salisbury, intend to capture all stormwater entering the site and recondition all wastewater. The water will then be supplied to residents and businesses for non-potable usage. Modelling the behaviour of the Mawson Lakes catchment under extreme conditions such as drought and prolonged periods of high rainfall will allow the project team to determine optimal water management strategies for the catchment. One of the problems facing the team is the prediction of future rainfall patterns and the typical form of extreme events. In this thesis I have used historical records to construct synthetic rainfall data that will allow the project team to investigate a wide range of typical behaviour. The Gamma distribution has been widely used to approximate the probability density function (PDF) of monthly rainfall totals. However, there is no natural way to extend this method directly to obtain a joint PDF for rainfall densities associated with two or more months, unless the monthly totals are independent. I propose a modified method to construct a suitable PDF using parameters from the maximum likelihood estimate for a marginal Gamma distribution and a series of associated Laguerre polynomials. This series of special functions allows us to match the correlation between monthly totals and to match the observed moments with any level of precision needed. The joint PDF for two months is constructed using a sum of products of associated Laguerre polynomials. In order to get an analytic expression for the marginal distributions and the associated cumulative probabilities, it is convenient to use a weighted total and a weighted proportion contributed from the first month. The method makes extensive use of well-known formulae from the theory of special functions. The cumulative marginal probability density for the weighted total and the cumulative conditional probability density for the weighted proportion are used to generate simulated rainfall totals for each month in a two month period. In theory the simulated data is statistically identical to the observed data. In practice we apply standard statistical methods to check that the simulated data is consistent with the observed data. This method can be extended to the general case of any number of months, but computationally is restricted to only three. For this reason an alternative method is proposed to generate synthetic data for more than three months, which uses groups and subgroups of months, but still retains the characteristics of the original PDF. Although the series method could also be used to model a sequence of days, I propose an alternative method using Markov processes. This method will match a sequence of daily totals, generated from a probability transition matrix, to the monthly total generated by the series method. This methodology allows the research team to simulate certain special cases such as droughts and prolonged periods of high rainfall. These unusual events are of great interest in catchment planning and management. / thesis (PhDMathematics)--University of South Australia, 2004.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Newcastle, 1999. / Department of Civil, Surveying and Environmental Engineering. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 246-255). Also available online.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Flinders University, School of Chemistry, Physics & Earth Sciences. / Typescript bound. Includes bibliographical references: (leaves xx) Also available online.

Thesis (M.S.)--Texas A & M University, 2003. / "December 2003." Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-85). Also available via the Internet.

Thesis (M.S.)--Oregon State University, 2009. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 133-138). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Mémoire (M.Sc.A.)-- Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 1991. / Bibliogr.: f. 86-91. Document électronique également accessible en format PDF. CaQCU

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2008. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on August 13, 2009) Includes bibliographical references.