This dissertation provides three distinct perspectives on state rainy day funds. The first empirical chapter explores the factors that influence a state to access their rainy day fund, and a variety of economic, institutional, and political factors to be important. The influence and effects of these factors, however, are contextual, and vary depending on the economic environment and political control. The most important influences on accessing the rainy day fund, however, are economic indicators that are in line with the purpose of state rainy day funds. The second empirical chapter investigates the influence of state rainy day fund deposit and withdrawal rules on where lawmakers place savings. The findings reveal that when states have strict rule configurations that limit legislative discretion, lawmakers avoid placing savings in the formal rainy day funds and opt for informal savings that allow for easier access. The final empirical chapter examines if states save enough to handle their unique economic environments. This chapter replicates Joyce's (2001) study with longitudinal data to gain a better understanding of state savings behavior and economic environments. Additionally, this chapter posits that informal and formal rainy day fund savings are closely linked, and, therefore, scholars need to consider both accounts when determining if states save enough their unique economic environment. Results indicate that under a broader view of state savings behavior and volatility, states are in a much better position than Joyce originally reported. What is more, when we consider both formal and informal savings, states are in a very good position to handle average volatility.

State government finance is a substantial endeavor in the United States. The management of a multitude of revenues and expenditures often involves some level of fiscal stress. In an age of increased public scrutiny, policymakers must be mindful of possible causes of fiscal stress, and the policy options available to mitigate fiscal stress and increase financial stability. This dissertation contains three essays that examine different elements of fiscal stress, and in some cases, the applicable policy responses. Chapter two examines rainy day funds and their countercyclical goal of reducing recessionary fiscal stress. This essay takes a different approach from much of the literature, by using forecast residuals to quantify fiscal stress as tax revenue volatility and searching for any relationship between rainy day funds and states that had greater volatility. Empirical results indicate states that experience positive residuals, that is actual tax revenues greater than the forecast trend line, had greater rainy day fund balances. Chapter three focuses on the problem of lost revenues facing states from e-commerce. Due to Supreme Court decisions, businesses that do not have a physical location, or nexus, in a state are not required to collect sales and use taxes. To date, the policy response to lost revenue that has gained the most traction is the Streamlined Sales and Use Tax Agreement. Results indicate that states with local option sales taxes and higher sales tax rates were more likely to adopt this agreement. Chapter four scrutinizes state unemployment trust funds, which are used to fund state unemployment insurance programs. If state funds run short of money during recessions due to the larger number of individuals drawing benefits, then states must borrow from the federal government’s unemployment trust fund. This creates another liability that must be managed by state governments. Empirical findings show that several features of programs affect balances and the probability of taking a loan from the federal fund including the taxable wage base, weekly benefits, and unemployment tax rates. This dissertation concludes by summarizing the results and exploring future research possibilities on the three essay topics.

The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of the growing season and dry spells based in daily rainfall data in Rio Largo, Alagoas. A serie time with 36 years of daily precipitation data (1973 - 2008) was measured in the conventional station (9 ° 28'S 35 ° 49'W, 127m) of the Agricultural Science Center (ASC) of the Federal University of Alagoas (FUA). In the definition of dry days were used six different values of precipitation (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 mm). The day was considered dry when it has a rainfall of less than one of these six values and it was defined as wet if the rainfall w as higher. The dry periods were defined as the sequence of dry days with precipitation less than or equal to the reference value of precipitation. The beginning (potencial and success), end e length of the rainy season and cultivation were measured by using direct methods. Statistical analysis of rain occurrence and dry spell was done with Markov chain in the software Instat Climatic. The dry periods were defined in three different intervals (≥ 5 days, ≥ 7 days and ≥ 10 days). At 80% probability the rainy season began on April 7th and finished on October 24th with length of 221 days. The beginning of the rainy season was anticipated in La Niña years (10 days) and delayed in years of El Niño (9 days), and consequently, cause a decrease in length of growing season for El Niño years and increase in La Niña years. The highest occurrences of rainy days were observed between April to August (50 to 90%). And November was the driest month (65 to 97%). In the rainy season (March to August) the dry spell of 5 days was the one that had the greatest chance of occurrence (5 to 85%). The occurrence of dry spells was low for 7 days (0 to 45%) and 10 days (0 to 5%). The occurrences of dry spells were intensified by the occurrence of El Niño events (1 to 60%) between 1980 and 1983 and were reduced in years of La Niña events (0 to 45%) between 1983 and 1985. / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / O objetivo desse trabalho foi determinar as características da estação de cultivo e os períodos secos baseado em dados diários de precipitação pluvial para o município de Rio Largo, Alagoas. A série de 36 anos de dados de precipitação pluvial diária (1973 2008) foi obtida na estação convencional (9°28 S, 35° 49 O, 127m) do Centro de Ciências Agrárias (CECA) da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL). Na definição de dia seco foram considerados seis diferentes valores de referência para a precipitação (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 e 5 mm). O dia foi considerado seco quando possuiu precipitação igual ou inferior a um desses valores e definido como chuvoso em caso contrário. Os períodos secos foram definidos como a sequência de dias secos com precipitação menor ou igual ao valor considerado de referência de precipitação. O início (potencial e de sucesso), fim e comprimento da estação chuvosa e de cultivo foram definidos pela utilização de métodos diretos em função da precipitação pluvial e evapotranspiração de referência. As análises estatísticas de ocorrência de chuva e de períodos secos foram feitas através da cadeia de Markov no aplicativo Instat Climatic. Os períodos secos foram avaliados em três diferentes intervalos de tempo (≥ 5 dias, ≥ 7 dias e ≥ 10 dias). A 80% de probabilidade, a estação chuvosa iniciou-se no dia 07 de abril e terminou no dia 24 de outubro, com comprimento de 221 dias. O início da estação chuvosa foi antecipado em anos de La Niña (10 dias) e retardado em alguns anos de El Niño (9 dias), e assim, causa uma diminuição no comprimento da estação de cultivo para anos de El Niño e aumento em anos de La Niña. As maiores ocorrências de dias chuvosos foram observadas entre abril e agosto (50 a 90%), enquanto novembro foi o mês mais seco (65 a 97%). Na estação chuvosa (março a agosto), o período seco de 5 dias obteve as maiores chances de ocorrência (5 a 85%). A ocorrência de períodos secos foi baixa para 7 dias (0 a 45%) e 10 dias (0 a 5%). As ocorrências de períodos secos foram intensificadas pela ocorrência de eventos de El Niño (1 a 60%), entre 1980 e 1983, e reduzidas em anos de eventos de La Niña (0 a 45%) entre 1983 e 1985.