Wu Haijun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 45-48). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iv / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1. --- The Fisher Hypothesis --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2. --- International Fisher Equation --- p.11 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Theoretical Basis on The Link Between Stock Return Differential and Inflation Rate Differential --- p.15 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Data Description --- p.19 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Results --- p.23 / Chapter 5.1. --- Does The Generalized Fisher Hypothesis Hold In The Long Horizons --- p.24 / Chapter 5.2. --- Does International Fisher Equation Hold --- p.29 / Chapter 5.3. --- Can International Elements Account For The Failure of Fisher Hypothesis --- p.36 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.43 / Bibliography --- p.45 / Appendix A --- p.49 / Chapter A.1. --- The link between interest rate differential and inflation rate differential --- p.49 / Chapter A.2. --- Instrumental Variable Estimation --- p.53 / Appendix B --- p.59 / Chapter B.1. --- Hong Kong CPI(A) Source --- p.59 / Chapter B.2. --- Taiwan CPI Source --- p.61 / LIST OF TABLES / Table 4.1: Data Description --- p.21 / Table 4.2: Means and Standard Deviations of Inflation and Stock Returns --- p.22 / Table 5.1: Short-term (One Year) Test on Fisher Hypothesis on Stock Returns --- p.26 / Table 5.2: Long-term (Five Years) Test on Fisher Hypothesis on Stock Returns --- p.27 / Table 5.3: Long-term (Ten Years) Test on Fisher Hypothesis on Stock Returns --- p.30 / Table 5.4: Short-term (One Year) Test For International Fisher Equation on Stock Returns --- p.33 / Table 5.5: Long-term (Five Years) Test For International Fisher Equation on Stock Returns --- p.34 / Table 5.6: Long-term (Ten Years) Test For International Fisher Equation on Stock Returns --- p.35 / Table 5.7: Testing Effects of International Elements on The Fisher Hypothesis --- p.39 / Table 5.8: Regression Results For The Coefficients of Domestic Inflation With and Without International Elements --- p.40

The literature investigating the relationship between stock market returns and inflation is long and has produced diverse findings. This thesis examines the nature of stock–inflation relations in Sub-Saharan countries whose stock markets were established before 1992. Evidence in this thesis shows that in the short term there is a positive relationship between stocks and inflation. Using the Johansen (1988) evidence, a long-run stock–inflation relationship is confirmed only in Nigeria and South Africa, where it is found to be negative. However, accounting for structural breaks provides evidence for a long-run relationship in Botswana, Ghana and Kenya. The evidence of the effects of regimes in the relationship is further supported by a nonparametric cointegration analysis which finds a long-run relation in countries where the Johansen (1988) method had failed. Unexpected inflation is also found to be related to stock returns in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Mauritius, which raises concerns about the use of month-end stock data in analysing this relationship. The thesis confirms the existence of hidden inflation in Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Imported inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate are found to have useful information about inflation movements in Sub-Saharan Africa.