This paper investigates whether the inherent non-stationarity of macroeconomic time series is entirely due to a random walk or also to non-linear components. Applying the numerical tools of the analysis of dynamical systems to long time series for the US, we reject the hypothesis that these series are generated solely by a linear stochastic process. Contrary to the Real Business Cycle theory that attributes the irregular behavior of the system to exogenous random factors, we maintain that the fluctuations in the time series we examined cannot be explained only by means of external shocks plugged into linear autoregressive models. A dynamical and non-linear explanation may be useful for the double aim of describing and forecasting more accurately the evolution of the system. Linear growth models that find empirical verification on linear econometric analysis, are therefore seriously called in question. Conversely non-linear dynamical models may enable us to achieve a more complete information about economic phenomena from the same data sets used in the empirical analysis which are in support of Real Business Cycle Theory. We conclude that Real Business Cycle theory and more in general the unit root autoregressive models are an inadequate device for a satisfactory understanding of economic time series. A theoretical approach grounded on non-linear metric methods, may however allow to identify non-linear structures that endogenously generate fluctuations in macroeconomic time series. (authors' abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

Univ., Diss.--Bonn, 2006.

[pt] Seguindo modelo desenvolvido por Prescott (2002), este estudo questiona qual seria hoje a renda per capita do brasileiro em idade ativa se o país adotasse os sistemas tributários de três países desenvolvidos: EUA, França e Inglaterra. Esta pesquisa mostrou que, no Brasil, a tributação sobre consumo é superior à francesa, enquanto que os impostos sobre renda são praticamente equivalentes aos cobrados nos EUA. E apresentou, para comparar, o total de horas trabalhadas por indivíduo em idade ativa de cada país. Por fim, apresentou o resultado de uma possível apli-cação deste modelo para o Brasil, concluindo que o PIB por pessoa em idade ativa seria superior ao atual com o sistema americano, inferior com o francês e pratica-mente equivalente com o britânico. / [en] Following the model developed by Prescott (2002), this study investigates what would be the income per capita for each working age Brazilian, assuming the country adopted the tax systems of three developed countries: USA, France and England. Our research shows that in Brazil consumption taxes are higher than in France, while income taxes are practically equivalent to those imposed in the USA. We show, for comparison purposes, the total hours worked per each working age individual within each country. Finally, we show the results of a possible application of this model for Brazil, concluding that the Brazilian GDP per each working age individual would be higher with the American tax system, lower with the French and equal with the British.

The diploma thesis deals with the basic Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. RBC theory provides pure supply-side explanation of economic fluctuations. Generaly acknowledged contribution of RBC theory is the fact that the model is developed strictly on microeconomic basis. The thesis consists of two basic parts, theoretical and practical. First, historical background of RBC theory is mentioned. Then the basic RBC model is step-by-step derived and all equations are provided with explanations. In the last theoretical part section RBC theory critisism is discussed. In the practical part the derived basic model is applied to the Czech economy. First certain properties of the Czech business cycles are examined. Then, the basic model is calibrated, simulated and the results are commented.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Thesis advisor: Matteo Iacoviello / The dissertation is composed by two chapters. In the first one, I study the role of credit constraints and incomplete markets in the short run transmission of monetary shocks, using the superneutrality result that would obtain from preference separability in the Sidrauski model under complete markets as a benchmark. I find that money demand heterogeneity stemming from binding credit constraints invalidates the superneutrality result. I show this result under two alternative settings. In a simple two agents model, with heterogeneity in the rates of time preference, whether positive shocks to the growth rate of money are expansionary or contractionary crucially depends on the transfer scheme adopted by the monetary authority to rebate seigniorage transfers: redistributional effects implied by symmetric lump-sum transfers are contractionary, while wealth-neutral transfers are expansionary. In a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, the approximate aggregation property fails to hold due to the high degree of heterogeneity of money demand and to the properties of the cross-sectional distribution of money holdings, suggesting the inadequacy of the representative agent assumption and the need for a more elaborate approximation of the wealth distribution to predict prices. In the second chapter, we propose a real business cycle model with labor and credit market frictions in which borrowing is conditional on employment status. Relative to a conventional set up, and as long as credit is valued positively, our model generates a non-standard labor/leisure trade off that induces job applicants to accept lower wages and firms to post more vacancies, ultimately increasing employment. A shock to the demand of durable goods, by increasing the collateral value, reduce the opportunity cost of working, and generates an increase in employment and output. The transmission of a financial shock that increases the loan to value ratio, is dampened by the costs, in terms of leisure, incurred by the borrowers. We show that this mechanism is able to generate the positive comovement between outstanding household debt and employment observed in the data, whereas a conventional model, in which employment status is irrelevant for obtaining credit, predicts a counterfactual negative comovement. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

The aim of my diploma thesis is to conduct the analysis of labour productivity with the connection to business cycle phases and their aspects. The analysis is concerned about the evaluations of measuring the labour productivity, these evaluations are important to do for better insight to their problematic. Also, the analysis deals with the factors that affect the effectivity of using factors of production. The thesis is divided into two parts - theoretical and practical. The theoretical part deals with the problematics of labour productivity, economic growth and their interconnection according to the technical literature. The market development and especially the development of insurance market, and prescribed indemnity are analysed in the practical part of the thesis. It is important to say that indemnity and its development are the essential parts of the insurance market. Also, the practical part is concerned with the labour productivity and the commission for insurance agents. The insurance company Generali is described there. The problematics of labour productivity and activity are observed on the specific groups of workers in this join-stock company. There are chosen workers from their individual positions on which the indexes are better shown. I evaluate these indicators and create a proposal for improving the labour productivity. This proposal makes also a good contribution to the direction of insurance company and its manager. The improvements include for instance: the focusing not only on newcomers but also on existing agents, who have done a good job for the company in the past and they create a good reputation for its business; a subsequent improvement is the better motivation for newcomer workers. I suggest that these newcomers should be bound to one existing insurance agent. Thanks to this it could be a good motivation and professional development for existing insurance agents, who would not only teach newcomers but above all improve themselves.

Presented here are consumption and production related asset pricing models which seek to explain stock market behaviour through the stock premium over risk-free bonds and to do so using parameter values consistent with theory. Our results show that there are models capable of explaining stock market behaviour. For the consumption-based model, we avoid many of the suggestions to artificially boost the predicted stock premium such as modelling consumption as leverage claims; instead we use the notion of surplus consumption. We find that with surplus consumption, there are models including the much-maligned power utility model, capable of yielding theory consistent estimates for the discount rate, risk-free rate as well as the coefficient of relative risk aversion, y. Since real business cycle theory assumes a risk aversion coefficient of 1, we conclude that our model which gives a value close to but not equal to 1, provides an indication of the impact of market imperfections. For production, we present many of the existing models which seek to explain stock market behaviour using production data which we find to be generally incapable of explaining stock market behaviour. We conclude by presenting a profit based formulation which uses deviations of actual from expected profits and dividends via stock price reaction parameters to successfully explain stock market behaviour. We also conclude that the use of a profit based formulation allows for a link to investment, output and pricing decisions and hence link consumption and production.

Univ., Diss.--Louvain-la-Neuve, 2007.

The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent recession have prompted renewed interest into how banking regulation and fluctuations in the financial sector impact the business cycle. Using three different model setups, this thesis promotes a further understanding and identification of the various transmission channels through which regulatory changes and volatility in the financial system link to the real economy. Chapter 1 examines the effects of bank capital requirements in a simple macroeconomic model with credit market frictions. A bank capital channel is introduced through a monitoring incentive effect of bank capital buffers on the repayment probability, which affects the loan rate behaviour via the risk premium. We also identify a collateral channel, which mitigates moral hazard behaviour by firms, and therefore raises their repayment probability. Basel I and Basel II regulatory regimes are then defined, with a distinction made between the Standardized and Foundation Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approaches of Basel II. We analyse the role of the bank capital and collateral channels in the transmission of supply shocks, and show that depending on the strength of these channels, the loan rate can either amplify or mitigate the effects of productivity shocks. Finally, the impact of the two channels also determines which of the regulatory regimes is most procyclical. Chapter 2 studies the interactions between bank capital regulation and the real business cycle in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework with financial frictions, along with endogenous risk of default at the firm and bank capital levels. We show that in a model which accounts for bank capital risk and regulatory requirements, the endogenous risk of default produces an accelerator effect and impacts the loan rate and the real economy through multiple channels. Furthermore, the simulations illustrate that a risk sensitive regulatory regime (Basel II) amplifies the response of macroeconomic and financial variables following supply, monetary and financial shocks, with the strength of the key transmission channels depending on the nature of the shock. The impact of higher regulatory requirements (as proposed under Basel III) is also examined and is shown to increase procyclicality in the financial system and real economy. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between loan loss provisions and business cycle fluctuations in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit market imperfections. With a backward-looking provisioning system, provisions are triggered by past due payments (or nonperforming loans), which, in turn, depend on current economic conditions and the loan loss reserves-loan ratio. With a forward-looking system, both past due payments and expected losses over the whole business cycle are accounted for, and provisions are smoothed over the cycle. Numerical experiments based on a parameterized version of the model show that holding more provisions can reduce the procyclicality of the financial system. However, a forward-looking provisioning regime can increase or lower procyclicality, depending on whether holding more loan loss reserves translates into a higher or lower fraction of nonperforming loans.

Thesis advisor: Ryan Chahrour / Virtual Economies present an excellent opportunity to study Economic concepts and phenomena in a controllable environment where perfect data collection exists. This paper uses Macroeconomic data provided by CCP Games on EVE Online to explore how the Quantity Theory of Money holds in a world without finance. The study supports the Real Business Cycle's effects on prices. Furthermore, a quick look is taken on the effects that player imposed borders have on trade within the EVE universe. It appears that, even in a virtual world, borders tend to reduce patterns of trade among neighboring regions. These findings encourage the further use of virtual economies, particularly Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs), as petri dishes for the study of macroeconomic theories. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2020. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.