published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Science in Real Estate and Construction Development

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Science in Real Estate and Construction Development

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Science in Real Estate and Construction Development

published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

In the asset-pricing framework, idiosyncratic risk is the risk that is independent of systematic risk and peculiar to one specific asset or company, it is left with no role in expected returns according to the classic finance theory since it could be completely diversified away. However, in the case investors holding under-diversified portfolios, previous theoretical studies generally demonstrate a positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns. However, negative empirical evidences regarding the idiosyncratic risk-return tradeoff have been reported recently in the stock market of the U.S. and China, as well as in several real estate literatures. To reconcile the conflict, this thesis is dedicated to investigate the role of idiosyncratic risk in the context of real estate investment. In the theoretical exploration, an asset-pricing model with short-sales restrictions in the market and heterogeneous beliefs among investors is established. Specifically, a simplified version with only three risky assets, in which two of them are direct and indirect real estate investments, demonstrates when investors endowed with incomplete information setting and under-diversified holdings, idiosyncratic risk would play an important role in the expected returns in equilibrium. Furthermore, the comparative static analysis reveals a positive cross-sectional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns. In the empirical study, this thesis employs the Fama and French (1992) three-factor model to estimate monthly idiosyncratic volatilities of the Listed Property Companies (LPCs) in the A-share market of China, based on the daily data from May 1999 to Aug 2011. Specifically, for each LPC in each month, its idiosyncratic risk is computed as the standard deviation of the three-factor model’s daily residuals. The estimation outputs show that idiosyncratic volatility dominates the LPCs’ overall volatility during the study period, and it is features with a distinct pattern when compared to that of the U.S. REITs: the LPCs’ idiosyncratic volatilities are significantly higher and more persistent; they are less irrelevant to the firm’s market capitalization and present an evident co-movement with the broad market. Hence, this scenario reveals a special interest to further study on the cross-sectional relationship between the LPCs’ idiosyncratic risk and their expected returns. In the cross-sectional test, conditional idiosyncratic volatility forecasted by the EGARCH-GED model is employed as the proxy for expected idiosyncratic risk, as the LPCs’ lagged idiosyncratic risk is shown to be not a good estimate. Over the study period, a firm positive cross-sectional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is documented, after controlling for various pricing factors such as firm size and book-to-market equity ratio, indicators of liquidity and momentum as well as returns reversal effect. This evidence not only confirms the prediction of previous theoretical studies and the model in this thesis, it also suggests a profitable trading strategy based on the idiosyncratic risk of the LPCs. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The investor’s expectation is instinctively to be linked to the asset’s return by the finance experts and analysts. However why and how it affects the return are poorly understood and explained. Can the investor’s expectation really move the market? How much the influence does it have? This study looks at this well-known puzzle between real estate returns and investors’ expectations on rental income growth of real estate assets. Based on the theoretical model in this study, the questions whether, why and how the investors’ expected rental income growth has effects on the real estate returns are answered. The study focuses on both private and public real estate (REITs) returns and examines whether they can be explained by the facts in Hong Kong. 　　The theoretical model is derived from the Gordon Growth Model. The novelty of the model is to define the term structure of interest rate on the expected rental income. Empirically, the linkage between the two markets is identified through the REIT’s dividend, which is specified to be distributed from 90% of the real estate asset’s income. Under this specification, strong evidence is found for expected rental income growth predictive power. In this study, the relationship between the monthly end-of-period REIT’s return and monthly expected rental income growth of corresponded real estate asset is tested by panel model, which does the superb job in fitting both cross-sectional and time-varied return patterns of REITs. As the REITs in Hong Kong had just launched since the end of year 2005, the sample period of this study is from November, 2005 to April, 2010. Unlike the standard asset pricing model, this study adds the investor’s expectation as one of the factors which determine the REIT’s return to adjust the out-performance tendency of certain asset. 　　The study also confirms the hypothesis in private real estate market by finding that investors’ expectation on rental growth imposes a positive and significant impact on the real estate return in Hong Kong. The quarterly data series of macro-economic factors, such as Gross Domestic Production, Inflation rate, Interest rate, Employment rate are tested to confirm their effects on the real estate return together with the investor’s expectations on both future rental income and inflation. All four real estate sectors, including residential, office, retail and industrial property sectors, are inclusively tested in this study. 　　 For both private and public real estate markets in Hong Kong, the investor’s expectation has positive effects on the corresponding asset’s return. The evidence in this study shows that the change of investor’s expectation would cause positive change of REIT’s return. It reveals that the investors’ expectation plays a vital role in the movement of both private and public real estate markets. When most investors expect a tendency of increasing earning, the real estate return tends to rise with controlling of other economic factors. 　　Though the conclusion of this study is well-known and frequently used to explain or predict the movement of real estate market, the theory behind it is commonly ignored. This study looks deeper into it by improving Gordon Growth Model to capture the investor’s expected rental income growth without econometric forecasting or questionnaire investigation. The series derived in this study is more reliable with clear logic and theory, and confirmed by the facts in Hong Kong real estate market. The derivation and application of the investor’s expected income growth of certain asset will be helpful to provide insightful implications on future asset pricing, finance prediction and analysis. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Science in Real Estate and Construction

published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / China Area Studies / Master / Master of Arts