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Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, housing prices have risen sharply and ubiquitously, with the highest jumps frequently occurring in previously sleepy markets like Boise City, Idaho (FHFA, 2021). One explanation touted in the media and in "YIMBY" activist circles is the restrictive effect of land use regulation on housing supply. Although economic theory generally accords with this explanation, attempts to quantify the effects of land use regulations on housing supply have faced significant conceptual and practical challenges. Conceptually, land use regulations are difficult to measure because regulations are multidimensional, dynamic and political, among other challenges. Practically, there is no national database of land use regulations, so researchers have typically gathered their own data and created their own measures of regulatory stringency, either directly—typically by reading and interpreting hundreds of pages of legalese per city or surveying thousands of urban planners—or indirectly—by connecting land use regulations to a different, more easily measured, quality like time required for a permit or percentage of permits accepted, or inferring effects from natural experiments. Methodological differences between time periods studied, types of regulations measured, numbers and types of jurisdictions included, and level of spatial analysis have frustrated efforts to unify the lessons of each study into a coherent whole (Gyourko and Molloy 2015). What is needed is a way to quantify and analyze land use regulations that is: a) Easily calculated from readily available open-source data b) Comparable within and across geographic areas at multiple scales c) Comparable within and across geographic areas over time This thesis explores an original measurement that meets the criteria above: regulatory utilization, which is the used proportion of a regulatory limit. It defines Ru and demonstrates its calculation from municipal GIS and administrative data. It explores the advantages and disadvantages compared to current approaches. And it demonstrates a method for combining many different Ru values into two aggregate metrics: density utilization and bulk utilization. The next section relates these aggregates to 3 important topics in real estate economics: real options, price elasticity of supply, and land leverage. It continues by suggesting applications in identifying and interpreting neighborhood change, calculating a "build score" (similar to a "walk score") for parcels, and estimating the impact of policy reforms. Directions for future research are outlined in the conclusion. / Master of Urban and Regional Planning / Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, housing prices have risen sharply in many cities, with the highest jumps frequently occurring in previously sleepy markets like Boise City, Idaho (FHFA, 2021). One explanation given in the media and in activist circles is that local regulations are causing a shortage by making it very difficult to build more housing in popular areas. This is a sound economic argument in theory but proving it requires a way to measure how restrictive, a.k.a. "stringent", these regulations are so researchers can compare cities. But each city has its own unique code with hundreds of pages of regulations. These rules can change over time, and different cities may use the same word in different ways. Even compiling these rules can be challenging because there is no national source of information. Researchers have been gathering their own data and inventing new measurements for decades. Some collect and read the regulations themselves, but this limits how many cities they can study at once. Others send out surveys to thousands of urban planners or real estate developers, but these provide a spotty and limited view. Still others tried to measure something simpler like the time or number of steps it takes for someone to get a building permit, but these might be different for many reasons (efficiency, number of staff, etc.) so these too are unreliable. Overall, the differences and disagreements between studies have prevented scholars from drawing definitive conclusions about the effects of these regulations on housing construction and prices (Gyourko and Molloy 2015). I argue that an ideal measurement of regulatory stringency would be: a) Easily calculated from open-source data available online b) Comparable within and across geographic areas c) Comparable over time in the same area(s) This thesis explores an original measurement that meets these three criteria that I call "regulatory utilization." I start by defining land use regulations and describing how economists think they affect markets for jobs, homes, and land. Next, I explain several challenges that researchers face when trying to measure these regulations and examine the main approaches that have been used in the past. Then I define my own measurement. I demonstrate how to calculate it from the open data that many cities publish on their websites, and I compare it to past approaches. I show how it relates to important topics in real estate economics and consider practical applications: to sense neighborhood change over time, inform homeowners about their redevelopment options, and help politicians and activists estimate the impacts of potential zoning changes. I conclude by summarizing and suggesting areas for further study.

This thesis was born out of the efforts of the Department of the Navy to better leverage the available land it controls to financially support the needs of the shore infrastructure. My directive was to design a process that could be universally applied to all installations around the world to improve the speed and efficiency of decision makers in the enhanced use leasing process. The leading example of this process is the Broadway Complex in downtown San Diego, California where 12 acres of underutilized waterfront property has been leased to a private developer in return for a new headquarters building and years of maintenance for that facility. My process takes into account the general means and methods of that real estate action but also considers that no where else in the world is such a large piece of prime real estate available for such a project. The model that succeeded in San Diego can not be universally applied to other locations due to the unique challenges and requirements of not only the installation but the surrounding community. The process I have designed can be applied to every location but must be tested by installation staffs to ensure the enhanced use lease process is feasible with consideration of security requirements, community needs, and then financial viability for a private developer. This is best shown through a simplified procedure and tested as a case study of an actual installation to ensure the necessary requirements are met without impact to Navy operations and training. / Master of Science / Being the sea-going service for the US military, the Navy has a large inventory of waterfront property in some expensive locations. The primary example for my thesis is the Broadway Complex in downtown San Diego, California. For decades, the 12 acre parcel was mostly parking lots in one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country. The Navy decided to explore the possibility of leasing out the land for a long duration to a private development company in exchange for something the developer was very good at, new construction or major renovation projects. The Navy created a system of leasing out land in return for construction work. After this process was completed, the Navy has tried to locate the next piece of valuable land that could go through the same transformation. This thesis examples the idea of creating a tool or inventory of desirable land to allow real estate professionals to quickly sort through it and start working on the next lease to a private company. Through this investigation, the best method to examine Navy property and decide whether it is desirable for private development, is to ask the local public works office to examine their own surroundings and future plans. The idea of a tool to collect these piece of land using general features such as location, size, nearby property values, isn't enough to understand what a property is worth to a private business. The conclusion of this thesis comes down to the fact that local knowledge is absolutely necessary to properly examine land value. This conclusion is supported by applying a new method that can be applied everywhere but must be tested on each base to find the next Broadway Complex redevelopment project that will greatly benefit the Navy and that specific base.

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Science in Real Estate and Construction Development

This paper studies the differences in the real estate markets of Los Angeles County and New York County in order to understand what variables contribute most to their growth by using national and local data from the period between 1987 and 2012. I conduct two separate multiple regressions to show that local variables tend to have a bigger impact on real estate growth than national variables. I also find that there is a significant difference between most of the variables depending on location. Overall, it is found that over fifty percent of the observed variables contribute to real estate growth in LA County. However, two thirds of the observed variables lead to real estate market decline in NY County. These findings show that NY County does not see as much growth as LA County.

It is estimated in the last five years Chinese investors have poured over $93 billion into the United States residential real estate market targeting high-end housing sectors. I analyze the implications of the investment and how it has affected the Bay Area housing prices. In order to find out why large outflows are targeting the United States I compare China’s economy with Japan’s economy in the late 1980’s when Japanese investors invested over $300 billion into high profile real estate properties. I find many similarities, suggesting China has a bubble economy such as Japan before the lost decade. To combat their bubble, China has implemented new restrictions on capital outflows in order to stabilize their volatile markets. In terms of the Bay Area real estate market I gathered evidence a recession is imminent due to the demand falling for high-end housing. The housing market mirrors economic health and indicates whether an economy is in a boom or bust.

The African Real Estate Society (AfRES) 2008 conference, through a panel discussion concluded that access to finance is a major challenge and an obstacle in developing real estate markets in Sub Saharan Africa. The purpose of this research was to establish the key factors that a lender takes into consideration when financing real estate transactions in Sub Saharan Africa, as well as the relative importance of each key factor. In addition to this, the study reviews and examines the risk considerations and challenges involved in doing business in Sub Saharan Africa, from a South African lender point of view. As the research is exploratory in nature, the initial approach to gather significant information was through literature studies and preliminary discussions with relevant representatives of the lender. Thereafter, a self administrated questionnaire was sent to respondents in order to bring out further factors or dynamics to consider. The main finding of the research was that the primary factors that influence a lender’s decision to finance a real estate transaction are: projected cash flow of a specific transaction, pricing, lender’s Return on Equity (ROE), client risk grading, property location, type of property, nature of business of borrower, security provided and client relationship. Respondents included track record of borrower and term of the loan facility as additional factors of influence. Regarding risk concerns, important issues of consideration included cultural differences, unfamiliarity of business environment and legal frameworks, access to data and delivery risk. The economic environment is highly segmented, and is thus challenging to treat SSA markets as one bread basket. The study reveals that although SSA is riskier than RSA in terms of doing business, each risk highlighted has a mitigating factor, which could be adopted to secure debt funding for transactions. The adaptation of these risk mitigates may facilitate access to funding for real estate clients in Sub Saharan Africa. Key words: Real estate, Africa, lending, risks and challenges

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2012. / Mr. Grayson received his S.M. in Real Estate Development, Sept. 2012.We will continue to monitor Mr. Kelly’s status and remove the note if/when he receives his degree. Page 126 blank. Cataloged from department-submitted PDF version of thesis. This electronic version was submitted and approved by the author's academic department as part of an electronic thesis pilot project. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-111). / This thesis investigates one of the United States' most sweeping regulatory responses since the New Deal legislation passed in the 1930's, the Dodd Frank Act. While the Dodd Frank Act will affect numerous financial markets, this thesis will focus on the implications of this regulation on the real estate securitization market. To better understand the regulatory response towards real estate securitization, we will clarify some of the key definitions, explain the history of securitization and describe the fundamental issues that led to the real estate securitization boom and subsequent bust as well as its implications on the financial crisis in the late 2000s. We will then summarize in detail the key provisions in the Dodd Frank Act associated with real estate securitization and describe the framework for which these provisions were formed. In conclusion, we will examine the implications of these provisions and explain our position of how the Dodd Frank Act will not achieve its desired effect on the real estate securitization market as drafted. / by Kelly G. Frazier and Paul C. Grayson. / S.M.in Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate , 2009. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 66-68). / The objective of this paper is to answer the question, "Has the military housing privatization process produced design innovation?" Secondary questions are, "What specific role has the Army's Residential Communities Initiative played in fostering innovation? What are the key process drivers? What (if any) specific building product innovations have arisen from an architectural, sustainability, construction technology and community planning perspective over the last 10-15 years?" Particular emphasis is paid to design measures employed by the development partners to ensure client satisfaction, maintain the competitiveness of their product on the open market and preserve long term partnerships with the U.S. Government. Consideration is given to the ways in which the Army has streamlined the privatization solicitation process to foster private sector innovation and what impacts these efforts have had on both design drivers and customer satisfaction levels. Specific examples of planning, design and construction innovation are explored through case studies. The author concludes that privatization has produced significant innovation and high customer satisfaction in the military housing market. However, there is still room for further program innovation in light of parallel trends in university student housing privatization, public housing privatization and the private market. Research methodology included relevant literature review and direct, focused interviews with key industry players from the U.S. Government, design and development arenas. These approaches were augmented with select, relevant case study analyses and supporting site visits.. / by Jason Ellis. / S.M.