Formalized epidemiological field investigations were conducted to compare and contrast the transmission dynamics of EHV-1 neurological disease among horses stabled at Churchill Downs Racetrack, Louisville, Kentucky and of EHV-1 respiratory illness among horses stabled in the student barn at Murray State University. Differences were assessed by means of statistical and mathematical modeling techniques applied to survey and biological data collected over the course of the respective disease events. Regression methods applied to survey data enabled the construction of a statistical model to predict a date of onset of illness for horses within each equine cohort. Comparisons of the epidemic curves revealed that the Murray State University outbreak was 4.5 times longer (9 weeks versus 14 days) than the Churchill Downs Racetrack event. Survival analysis was used to explore the relationship between time to infection for each equine cohort. Horses stabled in the affected barn at Churchill Downs racetrack had a 3.02 times greater daily risk (p < 0.001) for contracting EHV-1 infection relative to horses stabled in the student barn at Murray State University. Estimates of the basic R0 number, calculated using mathematical formulae that incorporated the duration of the infectious period for neuropathogenic and nonneuropathogenic strains of EHV-1, were 10.25 and 2.94 for the Churchill Downs racetrack and Murray State University outbreaks, respectively. The generation time for the Churchill Downs outbreak was 6.1 times shorter (0.39 days versus 2.38 days) than for the Murray State University event. An assessment of the temporal occurrence of symptomatic infection is similar for each event and suggests that the appearance of clinical illness is constant over the course of an outbreak. A Reed-Frost model was constructed for each EHV-1 event where values of the transmission parameters (q, p and k) were estimated by fitting a model that most closely matched the observed profile of EHV-1 cases. The value of prophylactic vaccination on the spread of EHV-1 was assessed by making adjustments to these fitted models for varying levels of herd immunity. The results indicate that the prevention of EHV-1 neurological illness requires a higher level of herd immunity than EHV-1 respiratory illness.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral avaliar os fatores de risco de disseminação da Doença de Newcastle relacionados ao trânsito de veículos entre empresas integradoras e unidades de produção de frangos de corte. Uma área de grande produção avícola do estado do Rio Grande do Sul foi escolhida para ser objeto de estudo da presente pesquisa, sendo simuladas a partir de uma granja índex, as zonas de proteção e vigilância, como determina o Plano de Contingência para a Influenza Aviária e Doença de Newcastle. A metodologia foi fundamentada em análises espaciais e probabilísticas, associadas a situações reais que fazem parte do processo de logística das empresas. Foi realizada a análise espacial da região, através de técnicas de geoprocessamento, a extração da taxa reprodutiva básica, estudo exploratório da proporção de alojamento de frangos de corte e desenvolvimento do modelo epidêmico clássico de Reed-Frost, avaliando assim, as possibilidades de disseminação da doença na área de estudo. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que somente o trânsito referente a visitas técnicas e caminhões de ração nas unidades de produção são fatores que podem desencadear um surto da doença. Quanto mais rápido for obtido o diagnóstico definitivo e tomadas medidas de contenção, menor é a probabilidade de disseminação da doença. / This thesis had as general objective to evaluate the factors of risk of spread of the Newcastle Disease related to the traffic of vehicles between companies and poultry farms. An area of great poultry production of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, was chosen to be object of study of the present researches, being simulated starting from a farm index, the protection areas and surveillance, as it determines the Plan of Contingency for Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease. The methodology was based in space analyses and probability, associated to real situations that are part of the process of logistics of the companies. The space analysis of the area was accomplished, through the use of geographical information systems, the extraction of the basic reproductive rate, study exploratory of the proportion of lodging of cut chickens and development of the model epidemic classic of Reed-Frost, evaluating like this, the possibilities of spread of the disease in the study area. The obtained results demonstrated that only the traffic regarding technical visits and ration trucks in the units of production is factors that can unchain an outbreak of the disease. The more fast it be obtained the definitive diagnosis and sockets contention measures, minor is the probability of spread of the disease.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral avaliar os fatores de risco de disseminação da Doença de Newcastle relacionados ao trânsito de veículos entre empresas integradoras e unidades de produção de frangos de corte. Uma área de grande produção avícola do estado do Rio Grande do Sul foi escolhida para ser objeto de estudo da presente pesquisa, sendo simuladas a partir de uma granja índex, as zonas de proteção e vigilância, como determina o Plano de Contingência para a Influenza Aviária e Doença de Newcastle. A metodologia foi fundamentada em análises espaciais e probabilísticas, associadas a situações reais que fazem parte do processo de logística das empresas. Foi realizada a análise espacial da região, através de técnicas de geoprocessamento, a extração da taxa reprodutiva básica, estudo exploratório da proporção de alojamento de frangos de corte e desenvolvimento do modelo epidêmico clássico de Reed-Frost, avaliando assim, as possibilidades de disseminação da doença na área de estudo. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que somente o trânsito referente a visitas técnicas e caminhões de ração nas unidades de produção são fatores que podem desencadear um surto da doença. Quanto mais rápido for obtido o diagnóstico definitivo e tomadas medidas de contenção, menor é a probabilidade de disseminação da doença. / This thesis had as general objective to evaluate the factors of risk of spread of the Newcastle Disease related to the traffic of vehicles between companies and poultry farms. An area of great poultry production of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, was chosen to be object of study of the present researches, being simulated starting from a farm index, the protection areas and surveillance, as it determines the Plan of Contingency for Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease. The methodology was based in space analyses and probability, associated to real situations that are part of the process of logistics of the companies. The space analysis of the area was accomplished, through the use of geographical information systems, the extraction of the basic reproductive rate, study exploratory of the proportion of lodging of cut chickens and development of the model epidemic classic of Reed-Frost, evaluating like this, the possibilities of spread of the disease in the study area. The obtained results demonstrated that only the traffic regarding technical visits and ration trucks in the units of production is factors that can unchain an outbreak of the disease. The more fast it be obtained the definitive diagnosis and sockets contention measures, minor is the probability of spread of the disease.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral avaliar os fatores de risco de disseminação da Doença de Newcastle relacionados ao trânsito de veículos entre empresas integradoras e unidades de produção de frangos de corte. Uma área de grande produção avícola do estado do Rio Grande do Sul foi escolhida para ser objeto de estudo da presente pesquisa, sendo simuladas a partir de uma granja índex, as zonas de proteção e vigilância, como determina o Plano de Contingência para a Influenza Aviária e Doença de Newcastle. A metodologia foi fundamentada em análises espaciais e probabilísticas, associadas a situações reais que fazem parte do processo de logística das empresas. Foi realizada a análise espacial da região, através de técnicas de geoprocessamento, a extração da taxa reprodutiva básica, estudo exploratório da proporção de alojamento de frangos de corte e desenvolvimento do modelo epidêmico clássico de Reed-Frost, avaliando assim, as possibilidades de disseminação da doença na área de estudo. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que somente o trânsito referente a visitas técnicas e caminhões de ração nas unidades de produção são fatores que podem desencadear um surto da doença. Quanto mais rápido for obtido o diagnóstico definitivo e tomadas medidas de contenção, menor é a probabilidade de disseminação da doença. / This thesis had as general objective to evaluate the factors of risk of spread of the Newcastle Disease related to the traffic of vehicles between companies and poultry farms. An area of great poultry production of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, was chosen to be object of study of the present researches, being simulated starting from a farm index, the protection areas and surveillance, as it determines the Plan of Contingency for Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease. The methodology was based in space analyses and probability, associated to real situations that are part of the process of logistics of the companies. The space analysis of the area was accomplished, through the use of geographical information systems, the extraction of the basic reproductive rate, study exploratory of the proportion of lodging of cut chickens and development of the model epidemic classic of Reed-Frost, evaluating like this, the possibilities of spread of the disease in the study area. The obtained results demonstrated that only the traffic regarding technical visits and ration trucks in the units of production is factors that can unchain an outbreak of the disease. The more fast it be obtained the definitive diagnosis and sockets contention measures, minor is the probability of spread of the disease.