Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2016-03-22T19:43:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ElianeBarbosaSantos_TESE.pdf: 12375456 bytes, checksum: 7daa07681473d4db8c2d1385401d3938 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-03-28T20:39:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ElianeBarbosaSantos_TESE.pdf: 12375456 bytes, checksum: 7daa07681473d4db8c2d1385401d3938 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-28T20:39:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ElianeBarbosaSantos_TESE.pdf: 12375456 bytes, checksum: 7daa07681473d4db8c2d1385401d3938 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-24 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Os Eventos de Precipita??o Intensa (EPI) v?m causando grandes preju?zos sociais e econ?micos ?s regi?es atingidas. Na Amaz?nia, esses eventos podem causar importantes impactos principalmente aos n?cleos de ocupa??o populacional nas margens dos seus in?meros rios, pois quando h? eleva??o do n?vel dos rios, em geral, t?m-se inunda??es e enchentes. Neste sentido, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa ? estudar os EPI, com aplica??o da Teoria dos Valores Extremos (TVE), para estimar o per?odo de retorno desses eventos e identificar as regi?es da Amaz?nia Brasileira onde os EPI apresentam seus maiores valores. Para tanto, foram utilizados os dados di?rios de precipita??o da rede hidrometeorol?gica gerenciada pela Ag?ncia Nacional de ?gua e do Banco de Dados Meteorol?gicos para Ensino e Pesquisa do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, referente ao per?odo de 1983 a 2012. Primeiramente, regi?es homog?neas de precipita??o foram determinadas, por meio da an?lise de agrupamento, utilizando o m?todo hier?rquico aglomerativo de Ward. Em seguida, s?ries sint?ticas para representar as regi?es homog?neas foram criadas e aplicadas na TVE, por interm?dio da Distribui??o Generalizada de Valores Extremos (Generalized Extreme Value - GEV) e da Distribui??o Generalizada de Pareto (Generalized Pareto Distribution - GPD). A qualidade do ajuste dessas distribui??es foi avaliada pela aplica??o do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, que compara as distribui??es emp?ricas acumuladas com as te?ricas. Por ?ltimo, a t?cnica de composi??o foi utilizada para caracterizar os padr?es atmosf?ricos dominantes na ocorr?ncia dos EPI. Os resultados sugerem que a Amaz?nia Brasileira possui seis regi?es pluviometricamente homog?neas. Espera-se que os EPI com maiores valores ocorram nas sub-regi?es do sul e litoral da Amaz?nia. Os eventos mais intensos s?o esperados durante o per?odo chuvoso ou de transi??o, com total di?rio de 146.1, 143.1 e 109.4 mm (GEV) e 201.6, 209.5 e 152.4 mm (GPD), ao menos uma vez ao ano, no sul, litoral e noroeste da Amaz?nia Brasileira, respectivamente. No sul da Amaz?nia, as an?lises de composi??o revelam que os EPI est?o associados com a forma??o da Zona de Converg?ncia do Atl?ntico Sul. No litoral, os EPI devem estar associados com sistemas de mesoescala, como as Linhas de Instabilidade. No noroeste, s?o aparentemente associados ? Zona de Converg?ncia Intertropical e/ou ? convec??o local. / Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Ag?ncia Nacional de ?gua) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorol?gicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.