ITC/USA 2011 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Seventh Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 24-27, 2011 / Bally's Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada / The surprise failure of two NASA Space Shuttles and the premature failures of satellite subsystem equipment on NASA satellites are motivating NASA to adopt an engineering discipline that uses telemetry specifically developed for preventing surprise equipment failures. The NASA Orion spacecraft is an Apollo module-like capsule planned to replace the NASA Space Shuttle reusable launch vehicle for getting astronauts to space and return to the earth safely as well as a crew escape vehicle stored at the ISS. To do so, NASA is adopting a non-Markov reliability paradigm for measuring equipment life based on the prognostic and health management program on the Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The decision is based on the results from the prognostic analysis completed on the Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia that identified the information that was present but was ignored for a variety of reasons. The goal of a PHM is to produce equipment that will not fail prematurely. It includes using predictive algorithms to measure equipment usable life. Equipment with transient behavior caused from accelerated of parts will fail prematurely with 100% certainty. For many decades, it was believed that test equipment and software used to in testing and noise from communications equipment were the cause of most transient behavior. With the processing speed of today's processors, transient behavior is caused from at least one part suffering from accelerated aging. Transient behavior is illustrated in equipment telemetry in a prognostic analysis. Telemetry is equipment performance information and equipment performance has been used to increase reliability, but performance is unrelated to equipment remaining usable life and so equipment should be failing prematurely. A PHM requires equipment telemetry for analysis and so analog telemetry will be available from all Orion avionics equipment. Replacing equipment with a measured remaining usable life of less than one year will stop the premature and surprise equipment failures from occurring during future manned and unmanned space missions.

ITC/USA 2011 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Seventh Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 24-27, 2011 / Bally's Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada / Satellite and launch vehicles continues to suffer from catastrophic infant mortality failures. NASA now requires satellite suppliers to provide on-orbit satellite delivery and a free satellite and launch vehicle in the event of a catastrophic infant mortality failure. A high infant mortality failure rate demonstrates that the factory acceptance test program alone is inadequate for producing 100% reliability space vehicle equipment. This inadequacy is caused from personnel only measuring equipment performance during ATP and performance is unrelated to reliability. Prognostic technology uses pro-active diagnostics, active reasoning and proprietary algorithms that illustrate deterministic data for prognosticians to identify piece-parts, components and assemblies that will fail within the first year of use allowing this equipment to be repaired or replaced while still on the ground. Prognostic technology prevents equipment failures and so is pro-active. Adding prognostic technology will identify all unreliable equipment prior to shipment to the launch pad producing 100% reliable equipment and will eliminate launch failures, launch pad delays, on-orbit infant mortalities, surprise in-orbit failures. Moving to the 100% reliable equipment extends on-orbit equipment usable life.

ITC/USA 2012 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Eighth Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 22-25, 2012 / Town and Country Resort & Convention Center, San Diego, California / The surprise failure of two NASA Space Shuttles and the premature failures of satellite subsystem equipment on NASA satellites are motivating NASA to adopt an engineering discipline specifically developed for preventing surprise equipment failures. The NASA Orion spacecraft is an Apollo module-like capsule planned to replace the NASA Space Shuttle reusable launch vehicle for getting astronauts to space and return to the earth safely as well as a crew escape vehicle stored at the ISS. To do so, NASA is adopting a non-Markov reliability paradigm for measuring equipment life based on the prognostic and health management program on the Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The decision is based on the results from the prognostic analysis completed on the Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia that identified the information that was present but was ignored for a variety of reasons prior to both accidents. The goal of a PHM is to produce equipment that will not fail prematurely and includes using predictive algorithms to measure equipment usable life. Equipment with transient behavior, missed by engineering analysis is caused from accelerated of parts will fail prematurely with 100% certainty. With the processing speed of today's processors, transient behavior is caused from at least one part suffering from accelerated aging. Transient behavior is illustrated in equipment telemetry in a prognostic analysis but not in an engineering analysis. Telemetry is equipment performance information and equipment performance has been used to increase reliability, but performance is unrelated to equipment remaining usable life and so equipment should be failing prematurely. A PHM requires equipment telemetry for analysis and so analog telemetry will be available from all Orion avionics equipment. Replacing equipment with a measured remaining usable life of less than one year will stop the premature and surprise equipment failures from occurring during future manned and unmanned space missions.

ITC/USA 2011 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Seventh Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 24-27, 2011 / Bally's Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada / This paper addresses the research conducted at U.C. Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, Center for Extreme Ultra Violet Astrophysics between 1994 and 1995 on the NASA EUVE ion-orbit satellite. It includes the results from conducting a scientific analysis called a prognostic analysis completed on all satellite subsystem equipment. A prognostic analysis uses equipment analog telemetry to measure equipment remaining usable life. The analysis relates equipment transient behavior, often referred to as "cannot duplicates" in a variety of industries caused from accelerated aging to the equipment end-of-life with certainty. The analysis was confirmed by using proprietary, pattern recognition software by Lockheed Martin personnel Lockheed Martin personnel completed an exploration into the application of statistical pattern recognition methods to identify the behavior caused from accelerated aging that experts in probability reliability analysis claims cannot exist. Both visual and statistical methods were successful in detecting suspect accelerated aging and this behavior was related to equipment end of life with certainty. The long-term objective of this research was to confirm that satellite subsystem equipment failures could be predicted so that satellite subsystem and payload engineering personnel could be allocated for only the time that equipment failures were predicted to occur, lowering the cost of mission operations. This research concluded that satellite subsystem equipment remaining usable life could be measured and equipment failures could be predicted with certainty so that engineering support for mission operations could be greatly reduced.

ITC/USA 2011 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Seventh Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 24-27, 2011 / Bally's Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada / Launch vehicle equipment reliability is driven by infant mortality failures, which can be eliminated using a prognostic analysis prior, during and/or after the exhaustive and comprehensive dynamic environmental factory acceptance testing. Measuring and confirming equipment performance is completed to increase equipment reliability by identifying equipment that fails during test for repair/replacement. To move to the 100% reliability domain, equipment dynamic environmental factory testing should be followed by a prognostic analysis to measure equipment usable life and identify the equipment that will fail prematurely. During equipment testing, only equipment performance is measured and equipment performance is unrelated to equipment reliability making testing alone inadequate to produce equipment with 100% reliability. A prognostic analysis converts performance measurements into an invasive usable life measurement by sharing test data used to measure equipment performance. Performance data is converted to usable life data provides a time-to-failure (TTF) in minutes/hours/days/months for equipment that will fail within the first year of use, allowing the production of equipment with 100% reliability.

Launch vehicle equipment reliability is driven by infant mortality failures, which can be eliminated using a prognostic analysis prior, during and/or after the exhaustive and comprehensive dynamic environmental factory acceptance testing. Measuring and confirming equipment performance is completed to increase equipment reliability by identifying equipment that fails during test for repair/replacement. To move to the 100% reliability domain, equipment dynamic environmental factory testing should be followed by a prognostic analysis to measure equipment usable life and identify the equipment that will fail prematurely. During equipment testing, only equipment performance is measured and equipment performance is unrelated to equipment reliability making testing alone inadequate to produce equipment with 100% reliability. A prognostic analysis converts performance measurements into an invasive usable life measurement by sharing test data used to measure equipment performance. Performance data is converted to usable life data provides a time-to-failure (TTF) in minutes/hours/days/months for equipment that will fail within the first year of use, allowing the production of equipment with 100% reliability.