The Federal Reserve has increased nominal interest rates since early 2016. It is expected that commodity prices will drop in response to this monetary intervention. The overshooting hypothesis explains that commodity prices are more flexible than manufacturing prices and therefore are more volatile. In this situation, it is expected that agricultural commodities decline significantly (i.e., overshoot) and gradually return to their long-run equilibrium. This adjustment behavior has implications for income stability and financial viability of farmers. This research contributes to the overshooting literature by including the energy sector in the overshooting model. The interlinks between energy and other sectors in the economy as well as the vast resource allocation to biofuel production in recent decades demand more attention to the impact of energy on the dynamic adjustment path of relative prices’ reaction to monetary shocks. We assume energy prices have independent adjustment path and include the links between the energy and agricultural sectors through biofuel production in our model. Our theoretical model shows that by including energy prices in the model, agricultural prices and the exchange rate overshoot less than the prediction of prior studies. This happens because we expect that flexible energy prices share the burden of the shock with other flexible prices in the model. We also describe how an increasing share of biofuels in the total fuel consumption will reduce the flexibility of energy prices. In our empirical analysis, we use monthly data from January 1975 to December 2017 for three producer price indexes (i.e., agricultural commodities, energy, and industrial goods), exchange rates, and money supply to test the overshooting hypothesis. We found the series to be nonstationary and cointegrated of the order one, I(1). Thus, we estimated a vector error correction model to identify the short run adjustment parameters while maintaining the long-run relationships between the variables. We identify and control for three possible structural breaks in the data that coincide with two economic crises and the biofuel production era. We also estimated the empirical model using a sub-sample from January 1975 to March 1999 and compared the results with the findings in previous studies. Our empirical results confirm the theoretical expectation that agricultural commodities adjust faster than manufacturing prices. The analysis of the impulse response functions shows that after a money supply shock, agricultural prices were the most responsive, followed by energy prices and exchange rates. In both full sample and the sub-sample, the volatility of prices and exchange rates happen during the first 5 to 10 months. The sluggish adjustment of manufacturing prices was evident from the corresponding impulse response functions. The empirical evidence rejects the long-run money neutrality, consistent with the findings of previous empirical studies. Compared to previous models, our empirical model shows that including energy prices will reduce the extent to which agricultural commodities overshoot. Therefore we expect the disturbances to the farm income variability, in response to monetary policy, to be less than what prior model would have estimated. In this regard, energy prices are a stabilizing factor in this model. We find that increased share of biofuel from total fuel consumption would positively affect the overshooting of agricultural prices. So, higher biofuel mandates could reduce the flexibility of the energy prices and therefore have an adverse effect on the farm price stability.

This study examined The Margin Protection Program for Dairy’s impact on the “effective margins” or margins realized by dairy producers in various regions. Each selected margin and percentage of production history offered by the national policy was analyzed in a forecasting, national and regional manner. Couplet margins were simulated for fifteen regions from 2017 through 2020. Five scenarios were analyzed for the change in MPP’s effects under a 15%, 10%, and 5% drop in the price of milk as well as a 50% increase in the price of corn and a scenario where milk decreases 15% while corn prices simultaneously increases 25%. The results demonstrate that more than half of the regions have higher probabilities of triggering indemnities at every coverage level when compared to the US, MPP margin. Margins change in response to the policy effects, where lower coverage levels experience margin increase, and higher coverage levels experience margin decrease. In the US, MPP margin, risk reduction is observed at every coverage level. The program was found to decrease risk at most coverage levels, where higher shocks to the margin increased the protection offered by the program’s effects.

Background: As rural hospitals in Kentucky face insolvency, stakeholders must assess the value of rural hospitals as well as alternatives such as rural clinics and private physician offices. Objective: To identify the value of attributes of healthcare facilities based on Kentucky’s rural residents’ willingness-to-pay (WTP). Methods: A survey instrument was created and distributed to ten counties in rural Kentucky. A conditional logit model was used to obtain baseline values and then a mixed logit model was used to address heterogeneity among consumers in estimating WTP. WTP values incorporated respondents’ demographic characteristics and their health status from self-reported frequency of use of medical services and distance from these services. Results: The results indicate that on average respondents were willing to pay $69.90 each year for the attribute of a facility that treats patients whether they have health insurance or not, compared to a facility that only accepts patients with private health insurance. Uninsured residents were willing to pay $81.15 for this attribute level. Conclusion: The study suggests that uninsured residents value this attribute level of a facility that grants them access to care. Stakeholders may justify such welfare benefit amounts in support of the establishment or maintenance of such a facility.

According to the USDA Economic Research service, farm-level prices are on the decline. This decline in prices particularly hurts smaller scale operators with many needing to rely on off-farm income in order to ensure they remain in operation. This thesis studies two problems of key interest to the Southeast region and the State of Kentucky by investigating dairy management practices and the environmental benefits of hemp production. As dairy prices have been on the decline and dairy co-ops have tightened their restrictions on somatic cell count (SCC) levels, dairy farmers and farm managers must decide the best course of action for maintaining milk quality in order to maintain their contract and profitability. Maintenance decisions as well as factors like sanitation and animal living conditions can all contribute to bulk tank SCC and depending on the type of incentives or penalties instituted by the co-op they can have an impact on net farm income. The objective of the dairy study is to determine which dairy management practices have the largest impact on SCC levels. Industrial hemp is produced worldwide. Historically, the major producers of hemp have been China, Europe, and Russia. In 2014, the passage of the Farm Bill opened the door to the production of Industrial hemp through the development of state pilot programs. Then the 2018 Farm Bill removed industrial hemp from the Scheduled Drug list. This has further expanded the opportunities and excitement for this crop. The plant’s versatility and the variety of products that can be made from it are coming to light. Sustainability is one of the key attributes touted concerning industrial hemp. Specifically, in the state of Kentucky, it is expected to be a replacement for tobacco and other traditional crops. However, how does the crop compare to tobacco production in terms of sustainability? The objective of the hemp study is to develop a life cycle analysis on the planting and harvesting of hemp and compare its impacts to more traditional crops.

The San Bernardino Mountains are well known for their rich mining history, especially, gold in the mid-1800s and the current mining of one of the world’s largest deposits of high purity limestone. The purpose of this study was to compile new, current, and historical data of the major economic resources that are present and mining that has gone on in the San Bernardino Mountains. It is estimated that historical mining of the Holcomb Valley recovered $457,660,000 of gold or about 350,000 troy ounces based on samples collected for this study and 2013 gold price. The current major geologic resource is the limestone deposits on the north slope of the San Bernardino Mountains. Presently, there are three operators: Omya, Specialty Minerals, and Mitsubishi Cement. The San Bernardino Mountains are well known for skarn gold deposits. New work indicates that the placer gold from Holcomb Valley is often of very high purity. Placer gold samples were analyzed using the scanning electron microscope and energy dispersive x-ray spectra to determine the purity of the gold. Rim and core analysis of the placer gold was used to determine if the gold was transported from its source and to give an estimate of transportation distance. Results show some of the placer gold of Holcomb Valley has been rounded and flattened by weathering and transportation with increased gold purity in the rims while other gold grains still sustain their octahedral crystalline structure. Rims range in gold purity from 84.26% to 100%, with core gold purity ranging from 79.51% to 99.79%. Gold samples were weighed, photographed, measured, and classified by shape, angularity and texture, to assess the effects of transportation. Gold weights where used to calculate an economic value of gold. Geographic Information System “GIS” was used to visually display geology, historical and current mine locations, locations of samples used in this study, and to help calculate the volume of the Holcomb Valley TsE rock unit, which is where the placer gold is deposited. Sediment sample 15 from TsE had the lowest gold value of .002 ounces per cubic yard. This value is inferred to represent the amount of gold remaining after mining. Based on this assumption and the estimated volume of TsE at 50,027,000 cubic yards, the estimated total weight of gold remaining in the deposit is about 100,000 troy ounces, with a dollar value of about $130,760,000, using gold values for 2013. Sample 17 had the highest gold value, with .014 ounces per cubic yard. This is inferred to represent the concentration of placer gold deposits within parts of Holcomb Valley that have never been mined. This yields a total weight of the deposit of roughly 700,000 troy ounces, with an estimated value of $915,320,000 using gold prices for 2013. The gold values were calculated using November 7, 2013 gold spot price of $1,307.60.

The purpose of this study was to show how organizations involved with the Hearst Ranch Conservation Easement negotiations might have used the feedback loop characteristic of two-way Symmetrical communication theory to reach consensus on the Hearst Ranch Conservation Agreement. Conservation easements are complex situations and each has separate and distinct goals, constraints, compromises, funding mechanisms, and public values. This study analyzed public documents from seven different organizations that provided input in the public consultations regarding the Hearst Ranch Conservation Easement, which completed in 2005. This study concluded that one of the communication methods adopted during the Hearst Ranch Conservation Negotiation was Hunt and Grunig’s two-way symmetrical communication theory.

The agricultural sector in Zambia is supported through the government use of public expenditure programs to spur the production and subsidize the consumption of key grains to stabilize prices. Previous research has documented the effects of public spending on agriculture in terms of food prices and food security. The effects of government spending on the trade of key grains, however, is not well understood. As such, there is a gap in knowledge regarding the impact of agricultural policy on the agricultural trade. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of Zambian agricultural policy on grain trade. A combination of 2 trust-based theories formed the theoretical foundation of this study. These theories included ecology of games theory and Kingdon's garbage-can model. Secondary data were acquired from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database and Michigan State University. A vector autoregression analysis of time-series data covering a 10-year period from 2003 to 2012 showed that grain quantities purchased by the Food Reserve Agency significantly impacted grain trade (p = 0.000), whereas the Farmer Input Subsidy Program did not significantly impact grain trade (p = 0.843). However, the combined effect of these 2 policy instruments was found to be statistically significant (p = 0.000). The key finding of this study is that for every 1 metric ton purchased by the Food Reserve Agency, grain trade increases by 0.342 metric tons; whereas for every 1 Kwacha spent on Farmer Input Subsidy Program, grain trade decreases by 0.187 metric tons. Positive social change may be achieved through recommendations to policy makers to increase appropriations to postharvest management and extension to increase tradable volumes and farmers' income.

Nutritional and Economic Analysis of Small-Scale Agriculture in Imbabura, Ecuador Intervention projects in the developing world normally aim to satisfy either the nutritional needs of a group, or advancing the economic stability, but not both. One of the many issues that may arise by narrowly focusing and creating an aid program is that although a group may be fed, they are not equipped to mitigate risks that will arise after project completion and thus continue or revert back to a malnourished state. A bridge is required to join the economic and nutritional programs to create aid interventions that are sustainable past the point of donor separation. This paper proposes the creation of a linear program model to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of such intervention programs. Investigating the effects of merging economic and nutrition interventions as pursued in this report required the first step to be the creation of economic information for a typical small-scale farm. The region of Cochas, Imbabura, Ecuador was selected as the study area in which data would be collected for a representative sample of production and living circumstances of a poor, rural, and small-scale farmer. A comprehensive set of estimated cost and return (enterprise) budgets for small-scale agricultural crops that could be grown by the representative farm family used in this analysis was developed. This was accomplished via data collected in rural Ecuador by Jake Erickson, a Master's student in the department of Applied Economics at Utah State University. Of the supervisory committee, daily interaction occurred with Dr. DeeVon Bailey, project supervisor, and Dr. Ruby Ward, linear program specialist, whom were crucial in project completion. Various scenarios of the linear program were run with variations to the selection of nutritional requirements, off-farm income, and allowing food purchases off the family farm. Each of these scenarios was pursued as they mimic circumstances in which families may struggle to exist within the developing world. The results of each run are compared across the set of results to help understand what assumptions need to exist to validate an intervention's approach to improving the standard of living or nutrition of the world's poor, rural, small-scale farmers. This model is a preliminary attempt at assessing the sustainability of merging common intervention approaches and it should be recognized that further development is needed to create a more encompassing model. Utilizing enterprise budgets, a linear programming model, and nutritional information, such as is done in this study, can help in planning rural development interventions as the income maximization and least-cost diet models are integrated into one within the resource and management constraints of the representative small-scale farm.

Oil seeds are natural sources of fat and protein in diets for lactating cows, and are usually fed whole or crushed. A recently released variety of safflower seed, 'Nutrasaff,' contains high fat (47% crude fat) and low fiber (26% NDF), and has a potential to be effectively used as a fat supplement for lactating dairy cows. Therefore, a lactating dairy cow trial was conducted to assess production performance of dairy cows when fed graded levels of whole Nutrasaff safflower seed (NSS), to determine the optimum level of NSS supplementation in the diet and to identify its impact on milk fat content and milk fatty acid (FA) profiles. Fifteen Holstein dairy cows in midlactation (118 ± 39 days in milk) were assigned into 5 groups of 3 cows each according to previous milk yield. The experimental design was a triple 5 × 5 Latin square with each period lasting 21 d (14 d of treatment adaptation and 7 d of data collection). The animals were fed a basal diet containing 56% forage (69% alfalfa hay and 31% corn silage) and 44% concentrate mix. The diet was supplemented with 0 (control), 1, 2, 3, or 4% (DM basis) whole NSS. The NSS was added to the diet by replacing whole linted-cottonseed. Intake of DM ranged from 26.4 to 27.5 kg/d across all treatments, and did not differ due to NSS inclusion. Yield of milk and ECM averaged 33.7 and 31.6 kg/d, respectively, and they were similar in response to NSS inclusion. Milk fat percentage decreased with increasing NSS inclusion, while milk protein and lactose concentrations did not differ among treatment diets. Milk fat concentration was reduced by 11% when NSS was included at 4% of the dietary DM. Feeding NSS at 1, 2, or 3% resulted in a similar milk fat concentration, and these diets also had similar milk fat percentage compared with the control diet. Concentration of milk urea N decreased by NSS inclusion regardless of level of NSS inclusion, implying that NSS supplementation improved dietary N use for milk production. Digestibilities of DM (P = 0.12) tended to increase when NSS was supplemented at 1, 2, or 3%. Cis-9, trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) linearly increased as the NSS inclusion increased. Total concentration of n-3 FA increased by feeding NSS at 1 and 2%, whereas total concentration of n-6 FA linearly increased with increasing inclusion level of NSS. This study clearly demonstrates that it is highly possible to use NSS as a means of fat supplementation to lactating dairy cows without negative impact on lactational performance if added less than 3% of dietary DM. The enhanced milk quality with increased cis-9, trans-11 CLA concentration due to the addition of NSS could have positive implications to human health.

Myoglobin (Mb) oxidation, and the subsequent browning, is the primary basis for consumer rejection of fresh retail beef. Considerable effort has been directed by the industry towards the development of techniques that can enhance color stability. However, the underlying mechanism of Mb oxidation has been studied extensively, but is still not entirely understood. It is known that chelation of iron and copper delays Mb oxidation and browning, but a clear role for these metals has not been established in any current Mb oxidation mechanism. The objective of the current study was to examine the possibility that iron plays a more direct role in Mb oxidation, and that metal chelators such as milk mineral (MM) and sodium tripolyphosphate can inhibit this action. MM, a colloidal calcium phosphate of large molecular weight and undetermined structure, was demonstrated to be a high-affinity iron chelator. Non-heme iron was found to stimulate Mb oxidation even in the absence of lipid, showing for the first time that the role of ferrous iron was not limited to promoting lipid oxidation, but instead has a yet-to-be determined role as a pro-oxidant factor in Mb oxidation. Ferrous iron was found to promote Mb oxidation under standard atmospheric conditions, while in high oxygen systems this effect was not seen. Addition of catalase did not affect Mb oxidation. However, in iron-containing systems, catalase significantly slowed Mb oxidation, while MM addition completely reversed the stimulatory effect of added iron. Type I radical-quenching antioxidants were found to rapidly reduce ferric iron to the ferrous form. This strong reducing ability accounted for the pro-oxidant effects of rosmarinic acid and eugenol in the lipid-free Mb model system. In raw ground beef, Type I antioxidants were highly effective at preventing Mb oxidation in the presence of lipid. Of the Type II chelators examined, only MM was able to delay Mb oxidation as well as the Type I antioxidants, possibly because it is not as susceptible to enzymatic hydrolysis.