Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-08-01T13:15:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalisPaulinoGinani_DISSERT.pdf: 2052482 bytes, checksum: f2a1d3aca81cb2c9e57898488db570eb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-08-03T23:31:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalisPaulinoGinani_DISSERT.pdf: 2052482 bytes, checksum: f2a1d3aca81cb2c9e57898488db570eb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-03T23:31:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalisPaulinoGinani_DISSERT.pdf: 2052482 bytes, checksum: f2a1d3aca81cb2c9e57898488db570eb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-24 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / O Brasil det?m uma das maiores reserva de ?gua doce do mundo, todavia h? regi?es com escassez h?drica como ? o caso da regi?o semi?rida do Nordeste brasileiro. Nesse sentido, com o intuito de contribuir para uma gest?o adequada dos recursos h?dricos ? imprescind?vel ? realiza??o de um diagn?stico da regi?o para an?lise da adequa??o entre disponibilidade e demanda h?dricas. O objetivo deste trabalho ? desenvolver um modelo da confiabilidade dos sistemas de abastecimento de ?gua no atendimento das demandas humanas na Bacia do rio Serid? e classificar os munic?pios de acordo com o balan?o h?drico entre disponibilidade e demanda. Para o desenvolvimento do modelo utilizou-se duas metodologias, a regress?o linear m?ltipla via Stepwise e a regress?o por componentes principais para a escolha das vari?veis do segundo modelo. Conclui-se que o modelo desenvolvido pela primeira metodologia foi o mais representativo para a Bacia do Rio Serid?. Com o balan?o h?drico entre demanda e disponibilidade verificou-se que mais de 50% dos munic?pios apresentam esta vari?vel acima do valor unit?rio. Desta forma fica ent?o evidente a necessidade do levantamento de informa??es para o planejamento de a??es que mudem esta realidade, tendo como base o ranqueamento das cidades em fun??o de vari?vel (is) que as caracterize(m) os munic?pios em fun??o da qualidade dos sistemas de abastecimento de ?gua no atendimento das suas demandas urbanas / Brazil has one of the largest reserves of fresh water in the world, but there are regions with water scarcity, as is the case in the semi-arid region of the Brazilian Northeast. In this sense, in order to contribute to an adequate management of water resources, it is essential to carry out a diagnosis of the region to analyze the adequacy between water availability and demand. The objective of this work is to develop a model of the reliability of water supply systems to meet human demands in the Serid? River Basin and to classify municipalities according to the water balance between water availability and demand. For the development of the model two methodologies were used, the multiple linear regression via Stepwise and the regression by principal components for the choice of the variables of the second model. We conclude that the model developed by the first methodology was the most representative for the Serid? River Basin. With the water balance between demand and availability, it was verified that more than 50% of the municipalities present this variable above the unit value. In this way, it becomes evident the need to collect information to plan actions that change this reality, based on the ranking of cities as a function of variables (s) that characterize municipalities in function of the quality of the systems of Water supply to meet their urban demands