I present a simulation model that should be a useful tool for risk assessment of the impact of insecticide inhibitors of cholinesterase (ChE) applied in irrigated agricultural fields on non-target wildlife. I developed the model as a compartment model based on difference equations (Δt = 1 hour) and programmed with Stella® VII software. Conceptually the model is compartmentalized into six submodels describing the dynamics of (1) insecticide application, (2) insecticide movement into floodable soil, (3) irrigation and rain, (4) insecticide dissolution in water, (5) foraging and insecticide intake from water, and (6) ChE inhibition and recovery. To demonstrate application of the model, I simulate historical, current, and “worst-case” scenarios, that examined the impact of ChE-inhibiting insecticides on white-winged doves (WWDO - Zenaida asiatica) in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas (LRGV), USA. To my knowledge, there are no field data verifying that the cause of ChE deprivation in WWDO is due to the ingestion of ChE-inhibiting insecticide residues dissolved in drinking water. I parameterized the model to represent a system composed of fields of cotton, sorghum, corn, citrus, and brushland that encompasses the activity range of a WWDO in the LRGV. I simulated situations representing the typical scenario of WWDO using irrigated crop fields in the absence and in the presence of rain. I also simulated “worst case” scenarios in which methyl parathion was applied at high rates and high frequency. Based on results of the simulations, I conclude that it is unlikely that WWDO are seriously exposed to ChE-inhibiting insecticides by drinking contaminated water. Only in rare cases, for example, when a rain event occurs just after the application of insecticides, are levels of ChE inhibition likely to approach diagnostic levels (20 %). The present simulation model should be a useful tool to predict the effect of ChE-inhibiting insecticides on the ChE activity of different species that drink contaminated water from irrigated agricultural fields. It should be particularly useful in identifying specific situations in which the juxtaposition of environmental conditions and management schemes could result in a high risk to non-target wildlife.

The information security incidents have most often been reported. The loss of enterprise operation is more and more serious because of information security incidents. There are more and more operation risks happening inside the enterprise because of such informational and electronic transformation. Consequently, the requirement to have an effective management framework of information security is more and more urgent. The research adopts the international standard ISO 27001 as the foundation of the information security management framework. And then, risk assessment is the main process of the informational security management framework. This process includes five stages: identification and classification of information assets, value evaluation of information assets, vulnerability assessment of information assets, threats assessment of information assets, and measurement of information security risks. The operational definition, implementation steps and measurement of the information security risks are worked out through review of relevant literature and interview with experts in the semiconductor assembly company. Finally, the experts of the consulting firm of the informational security are entrusted to verify the availability of the model. The result of this informational security risk assessment model will be used as the basis for future improvement. It is hoped that this research can offer a guideline for the information security risk assessment suitable for the semiconductor company and can be used as a reference for internal auditors and management.

Risk-based corrective action (RBCA) is rapidly becoming an accepted approach for the remediation of contaminated sites. Under a RBCA approach, the risks to human health and the environment associated with a contaminated site are evaluated and appropriate corrective measures are taken as needed to reduce risk to acceptable levels. A series of standard guides of RBCA have been developed by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). The main task of this study was to conduct a risk assessment at a site contaminated with chlorinated organic compounds. The studied site had a chlorinated organic compound leakage incident, which caused groundwater contamination. The contaminants of concern included trichloroethylene (TCE) and dichloroethylene (DCE). The concentrations of TCE and DCE exceeded the control standards of 0.05 and 0.07 mg/L, respectively. The contamination has a tendency to move downstream along with groundwater. The goals of this study were to: (1) conduct risk assessment at the site, and to evaluate the risk of downstream acceptor; (2) analyze the carcinogenicity risk and the possible pollution transmission pathway to provide the management personnel a basis for future site screening, planning and technical improving; (3) evaluate the effect of natural attenuation (NA) processes on risk reduction; and (4) apply Monte Carlo analysis method to conduct uncertainty analysis at the site. In this study, RBCA Tool Kit for Chemical Release, 1.3 edition established by Groundwater Service, Inc. was applied for risk assessment. Moreover, the health risk assessment stimulation system developed by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration was also applied to conduct risk assessment simulation for comparison. The commercial software @RISK and Microsoft¡¦s EXCEL spreadsheet was used to conduct Monte Carlo analysis to analyze risk probability distribution. Results show that the health risk assessment result has indicated that the main risk at this site was through groundwater exposure pathway. If the biodegradation process occurs, the contaminant plume will be controlled and the risk will be reduced. Thus, the total carcinogenicity risk and hazard index (HI) of the downstream residential area will be reduced to acceptable levels (cancer risk < 1 ¡Ñ10-5, and HI < 1). Results from the Monte Carlo simulation show that the carcinogenic risk is about 6.38¡Ñ10-6 when the accumulation rate is 90% via inhalation. The calculated risk levels are higher than the requirement for minimum target risk level (cancer risk of 1x10-6) described in Taiwan¡¦s ¡§Soil and Groundwater Remediation Act¡¨. Results also show that the hazard index of non-carcinogenic risk is about 3.28 via the route of ingestion, which is higher than the acceptable level of 1. Based on the results of risk assessment, it is very important for the decision makers to incorporate remedial activities including institutional controls, engineering controls, and remediation programs from RBCA results. This study provides a streamlined process and guidelines of developing the risk-based decision-making strategy for contaminated sites in Taiwan.

This research investigate and analysis 77 kinds of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the sewage system of a southern urban area (A, B, C, D, E and F). The 77 kinds of VOCs will be divided into BTEX, chlorine-containing hydrocarbons and non-chlorine-containing hydrocarbons, and to estimate the emission of 27 kinds of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Cancer risk within 12 kinds of HAPs will also be part of the investigation by using Risk Assessment. In terms of consistency, except A1, D5 and E, VOCs are required mainly of non-chlorine-containing hydrocarbons at other areas, and main contribution species are ethylene, acetylene and ethane. There are 55.05 % of BTEX (1298.2 £gg/m3) and 35.51 % of non-chlorine-containing hydrocarbons (837.6 £gg/m3) in A1, but the main contribution are toluene, m-xylene and p-xylene. In D5, there is 76.39 % of BTEX (3744.7 £gg/m3) and the main contribution are m-xylene, p-xylene and toluene. In E, there is 80.02 % of chlorine-containing hydrocarbons (4807.1 £gg/m3) and the main contribution are chloromethane and toluene. Results show that the most emissions of total HAPs is D5 (12195.3 mg/hr), followed by B2 (4602.9 mg/hr), E (2659.4 mg/hr), A4 (2043.7 mg/hr) and A1 (1526.2 mg/hr). BTEX represent the largest proportion of the emissions of total HAPs in D5, A4 and A1. Chloroethene represents the largest proportion of the emissions of total HAPs in B2, followed by trichloroethene and tetrachloroethene. Chloromethane represents the largest proportion of the emissions of total HAPs in E. The most cumulative cancer risk in the sewage space is B2, followed by C2 and A3. The main contribution of the average cancer risk (not include B2) in a southern urban area are 1,1,2-trichloroethane, 1,2-dichloroethane and 1,4-dichlorobenzene.

Contamination by dense non aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) [e.g., trichloroethylene (TCE)] in soil and groundwater has become an issue of great concern in many industrialized counties. In this study, a chlorinated-compound spill site was selected as the case study site to evaluate the possible risk to site workers and local residents caused by the contaminated soil and groundwater. The contaminants of concern at this site were TCE and 1,1-Dichloroethylene (1,1-DCE). The detected concentrations for TCE and 1,1-DCE exceeded the control standards of 0.05 and 0.07 mg/L, respectively. In this study, the Risk-based Corrective Action (RBCA) protocol developed by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), health and risk assessment methods for soil and groundwater contaminated sites developed by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were applied for risk calculation and quantification. Monte Carlo analysis using @RISK software was applied for uncertainty analysis to calculate the cumulative risk at 95% probability distribution. Moreover, a natural attenuation model (BIOCHLOR) was used to evaluate the effectiveness of natural attenuation mechanisms on the chlorinated compounds. Results from this study show that the occurrence of natural attenuation for the chlorinated compounds was confirmed through the anaerobic biodegradation processes. The calculated cumulative risk at 95% cumulative probability via ingestion route was 2.61¡Ñ10-5 through the Monte Carlo analysis. The calculated cumulative risk at 95% cumulative probability via inhalation route and ambient (outdoor) vapor inhalation diffusion channels were 1.461¡Ñ10-5 and 2.17¡Ñ10-6, respectively. Because the calculated risk levels were higher than the target cancer risk is 1¡Ñ10-6 described in Taiwan¡¦s ¡§Soil and Groundwater Remediation Act¡¨, appropriate remedial actions are required to lower the risk to below the target level. Results also show that the calculated hazard index (HI) values of the contaminated site are lower than the acceptable level (HI < 1) described in the ¡§Soil and Groundwater Remediation Act.¡¨ To meet the target level of cancer risk of 1¡Ñ10-6, TCE contaminated groundwater needs to be remediated to below the site specific target level (SSTL) for inhalation exposure routes in a confined space volume, which is 6.91 ¡Ñ 10-2 mg/L. Based on the results of risk assessment, it is very important for the decision makers to incorporate remedial activities including institutional controls, engineering controls, and remediation programs from RBCA results. This study provides a streamlined process and guidelines of developing the risk-based decision-making strategy for contaminated sites in Taiwan.

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{page:Section1;} --> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <mce:style><! /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} --> <!--[endif]--></p><p>The overall purpose of the paper is to see how crediting institutions assess risks in emerging market countries. The paper describes prevalent economic and social conditions for each of the selected emerging market countries (Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, India, Russia and Ukraine) as examples of recent attractive investment locations in quest of higher returns.  Second, recognizing the importance of ratings for risk management in credit institutions, the authors show what determines country ratings made by main rating agencies by running a linear regression on several macroeconomic indicators and the country ratings. It is also explained what the most widely-used ratings mean and described the correlation between the ratings as well as between the macroeconomic indicators and the ratings. The authors also describe the characteristic approach of a Scandinavian bank towards dealing with risk factors in emerging market countries. Concluding comments: risks happen to be inbound in the bank interest rates; there is no common pattern for banks to apply to all the emerging market countries and each market should be analyzed separately. Nordic banks have a relatively safe and careful strategy concerning lending in the emerging markets.</p><p> </p>

<p>The aim of this thesis is to characterize and discuss two kinds of influences on the outcome of a toxicological risk assessment. One kind of influencehas to do with values and the role played by value-based judgment. Currently, many toxicological risk assessments are characterized byscientific uncertainties. When this is the case, risk assessors are to some extent dependent on assumptions and judgment, and this has consequences for the outcome of the assessment. Another other kind of influence comes from the quality and accuracy of the empirical studies that risk assessments are based on. If toxicological research and testing are affected by systematic errors (bias), this will influence the ensuing risk assessment. In order to improve toxicological risk assessments work must be done both on understanding and dealing with the impact of values and on getting better and more efficient methods for gathering facts. The two papers that make up this licentiate thesis may be seen as a contribution to each of these objectives.</p><p><i>Article 1: Values in science and risk assessment </i></p><p>It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains valuejudgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science’s epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment.</p><p><i>Article 2: Bias in toxicology </i></p><p>In this article, the potential for bias in toxicological research and in the performance of standardized toxicological testing in discussed. Due to the lack of empirical studies of bias in toxicology, very little is known aboutits prevalence and impact. Areas to consider for such studies are pointed out, and it is suggested that such investigations should be given priority.</p>

Thesis (M.S.)--Mississippi State University. Department of Industrial Engineering. / Title from title screen. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 2002. / Thesis advisor(s): Nita Lewis Miller, Saverio Manago, Matt Chesney. Includes bibliographical references (p. 118-120). Also available online.