The Basel Accord regulates risk and capital requirements to ensure that a bank holds capital proportional to the exposed risk of its lending practices. Basel II allows banks to develop their own empirical models based on historical data for probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD). Brazil was among the first emerging market countries to release a timetable for the implementation of the Basel II Accord and aimed to apply it uniformly to all Brazilian financial institutions from 2005 to 2011. Within this context, the necessity arises of conducting research that could assist the financial institutions in improving the accuracy of their models. This thesis has three objectives. The first is to develop a macro-economic model to predict the behaviour of the aggregate delinquency in Brazilian consumer loans. The model consists in testing co-integrating relationships and then estimating a short run error correction model. The results based on monthly data from 2000 to 2012 show that the delinquency rate is particularly sensitive to shocks on GDP and to the variation of workers' income. The analysis then shifts to micro or account level to model the behaviour of borrowers and certain novel types of information that can be used for prediction. Second, customers fail to make loan repayments for a number of reasons, ranging from simple forgetfulness to deliberate attempts. For this reason, the second objective is to investigate the reasons for default and to explore ways of incorporating these variables into Recovery Rate (RR = 1 - LGD) models, since the standard approach overlooks real reasons for default and uses proxies for them such as marital status and length of employment. Customers who failed to repay their loans were interviewed in order to discover the causes for this failure. In addition, the interviews included questions aimed to measure the customer's personality traits and their financial knowledge in relation to the reasons for default. The empirical results show that the variables proposed in this study, namely, reason for missing payment, financial knowledge and risk taken, improve the prediction of the recovery rate. Thirdly, it is known that recovery depends on the debt collection process and on the different options or actions that collection departments can take. Yet there is practically no literature exploring the impact of the lender's collection actions on RR/LGD. This work fills this gap by investigating the role of different collection actions at the loan-level for a retail credit product, and by estimating LGD models using Panel Data regressions.

This thesis develops a new framework for explaining the effects and possible trajectories of state building interventions (SBIs). This is for both examining specific interventions and learning about the precise nature of the post-Cold War global order – how power is distributed, exercised, constrained and challenged within and between states. In the post-Cold War years, but particularly since the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks, so-called failed states have become a central security concern for policymakers. In tandem, there has been an influx of practitioner and scholarly interest in international ‘state building’. Prevalent approaches to state building are premised on a static conception of the state and therefore seek to evaluate SBIs in terms of whether they help create ‘more’ or ‘less’ state. In contrast, this thesis examines SBIs as a new mode of governance in the global political economy that is transformative of both intervened and intervening states, leading to the creation of a transnationalising and transnationally regulated form of statehood. Based on a conception of the state as a site of social and political struggle this study examines the ways in which SBIs affect the distribution, production and reproduction of political power in intervened states: Who rules and how? What social and political conflicts are engendered or exacerbated by SBIs, and how are they managed? What alliances and coalitions support the production/reproduction of power relationships associated with SBIs? The thesis provides a conceptual framework for understanding the complex governance terrain SBIs open up. SBIs are conceptualised as multilevel regimes – sets of social and political relationships, institutions and ideas – that exist simultaneously within and outside intervened states. While preserving the formal sovereignty of intervened states, these regimes are nevertheless established to shape political outcomes by limiting the political choices available to domestic leaders. This is operationalised by opening up and shifting power to multilevel spaces of governance within the apparatus of these countries. Through case studies from Australia, Solomon Islands and Cambodia, the thesis analyses the politics of SBIs and their broader implications for contemporary statehood. Ultimately it establishes that regardless of whether SBIs are successful or otherwise in achieving their stated objectives they are associated with the emergence of increasingly authoritarian, hierarchical and anti-competitive forms of political rule, both within and between states.

This thesis presents empirical research into the project risk pricing decision undertaken by Australian project leaders for domestic project finance. It addresses questions about the relative importance of various project finance risks on the project risk pricing decision; the impact of risk interactions; and the degree of self-insight possessed by Australian project leaders when making this decision. Five project financing risk most frequently cited in the literature, namely: operating, environmental, market, political/regulation, and sponsors, were selected. Sixteen hypothetical risk pricing cases were structured, which were completed by twenty-five project leaders working in Sydney. The collected data was analysed, and the results show that the five project financing risks had strong impact on the project risk pricing decision. Among them, market risk is the most influential factor, followed by operating, sponsors, and political/regulation risks, while environmental risk was the factor with least effect. Very little support, however, was provided for the hypothesis that risk interactions impact the project risk pricing decision. Among the ten two-level risk interactions tested, only the interaction between sponsors and political/regulation was found to be significant. In relations to the degree of self-insight, various comparisons between subjective and objective weights demonstrated that the project leaders, in general, were quite insightful about their project finance risk pricing decisions / Master of Commerce (Hons)

Thesis (M. Phil.)--University of Hong Kong, 2006. / Title proper from title frame. Also available in printed format.

<p>SAMMANFATTNING</p><p>Genom de skandaler som revisionsbranschen mött har ökande krav på branschen uppkommit. Det kan finnas risker i dagens samhälle som inte existerat eller varit aktuella tidigare men på grund av de förändringar som skett i samhället nu framträtt. Vi ville studera hur revisionsbyråerna förhåller sig till dessa samt hur de finner en väg att hantera dem. Studiens syfte var undersöka om det finns något aktivt arbete med att hantera de risker som är förknippade med accepterandet av klienter, det lyder:</p><p>Syftet med vår uppsats är att studera om det finns ett aktiv arbete med Risk Management på revisionsbyråerna samt i så fall hur detta går till och vilka risker som de då främst vill undvika vid accepterande av klienter. Vi vill även studera hur revisionsbyråerna hanterar de risker som de väljer att acceptera.</p><p>Då vi hade uppfattningen att det är ohållbart för revisionsbyråerna att inte på något vis hantera de risker de ställs inför föll det sig troligt för oss at de större byråerna aktivt arbetar med Risk Management. Vi ville för det första kontrollera om vår uppfattning stämde och om så var fallet även klarlägga vilka risker revisionsbyråerna i huvudsak avser att undvika. Uppsatsens problem formulerades enligt följande:</p><p>Vilka risker vill revisionsbyråerna främst undvika genom sitt arbete med Risk Management, vid accepterande av klienter?</p><p>Datainsamlingen genomfördes genom intervjuer med revisorer som arbetar med Risk Management men i olika roller och i olika omfattning. Detta material har sedan jämförts med vad vi i litteraturen funnit kring risker, riskhantering samt accepterande av klienter. De slutsatser vi först och främst har kunnat dra är att ett aktivt arbete med Risk Management hos de större revisionsbyråerna bedrivs. Vidare har vi funnit tre riskområden som byråerna främst avser att undvika med Risk Management, byråns risk, revisorns risk samt risken för tredje man.</p>

<p><strong>Introduction:</strong> Recent years’ globalization and expanding currency markets have increased the importance of financial managers.  A multinational company handles different currencies through export and imports, and is thus exposed to currency fluctuations. Awareness and assessment of risk management are issues more important not to ignore.</p><p><strong>Research question:</strong> <em>How does the multinational company SCA indentify currency risk exposure, and how does the financial management relate to it?</em></p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong> The aim of this study is to get a deeper understanding of the currency risk management at a Swedish multinational company and how the individual manager identifies exposure. Furthermore, what means that exist for assessing the exposure and how the management choose to reduce the risk will be investigated.</p><p><strong>Method:</strong> This case study has a qualitative approach, and is mainly based on two unstructured interviews that have been conducted with the financial mangers of SCA.</p><p><strong>Findings:</strong> The authors found that SCA identifies different kinds of exposures related to currency risk. SCA is equipped with organizational strategies as well as practical methods for reducing the risk exposure and positioning themselves in line with company framework and policies.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong>:                   Currency risk management is a subject of great complexity since exposures interrelate and alternates with time and as global economy changes. A company could hold a framework of policies, strategies and instruments that will provide their financial managers with means for risk assessment and management. Ultimately the responsibility is still in the hand of the managers.</p>

<p>Sammanfattning</p><p>Syftet med studien var att undersöka hur fastighetsbolag värderar historisk ekonomisk</p><p>information och information från kompletterande källor vid kreditbedömning av aktiebolag</p><p>som hyresgäster. Utgångspunkten för studien var att de på grund av den komplexa</p><p>kreditgivningen fastighetsbolagen har, så måste de ta hänsyn till en rad faktorer. Förutom att</p><p>ta hänsyn till historisk ekonomisk information, så bör fastighetsbolagen även ta hänsyn till</p><p>ickefinansiella källor som t.ex. hyresgästens affärsidé och hyresgästens kompetens som</p><p>företagsledare. Vi ville även undersöka om det fanns upparbetade rutiner för</p><p>kreditbedömningen och om fastighetsbolagen gjorde skillnad vid kreditbedömningen av</p><p>nystartade och etablerade företag. I studien undersökte vi förekomsten av upparbetade rutiner</p><p>för kreditbedömningen i fastighetsbolagen och om kreditgivaren gör skillnad i</p><p>kreditbedömningen av nystartade respektive etablerade företag. För att besvara</p><p>frågeställningen genomfördes semistrukturerade intervjuer med de tre personer som gör</p><p>kreditbedömningarna på respektive fastighetsbolag. Alla fastighetsbolag är för övrigt</p><p>verksamma i Östersundsområdet. Studien visar att fastighetsbolagen inte tillämpar hela det</p><p>teoretiska underlaget vid kreditbedömningen. Även kreditbedömarens utbildnings- och</p><p>yrkesbakgrund påverkar valet av information. En annan slutsats är att fastighetsbolagen vid</p><p>kreditbedömningen av nystartade företag, baserar kreditbedömningen på ickefinansiella</p><p>källor. Dessa källor kan vara till exempel rekommendationer från respondentens</p><p>kontaktnätverk eller bedömning av den presumtive hyresgästens marknadsplan eller budget.</p><p>Undersökningen visar att det, ur ett ägar- och koncernperspektiv, finns skillnader i rutiner och</p><p>kredithanteringspolicys. Vi anser att fastighetsbolagen är reducerat rationella med</p><p>kreditbedömningsprocessen, och att de i första hand väljer att prioritera andra riskfaktorer.</p> / <p>Abstract</p><p>The purpose with this essay was to investigate how real estate companys, value historical</p><p>economic information and information from other sources at credit appraisal of corporation as</p><p>tenants. The starting point of the study was as a result of the complexed granting of credits the</p><p>real estate company has, which means they have to consider many factors. Other then</p><p>considering the historical economic information, the real estate company also should consider</p><p>non-financial sources such as tenant´s business idea and the tenant´s competence as a business</p><p>leader. We also wanted to investigate if the real estate companys had any policys or rutines</p><p>they had to follow in their credit analysis and if they make any different judgement in their</p><p>credit analysis between new- and already established companys. To answer these questions</p><p>we made three semistructured interviews with the person that makes the credit analysis at</p><p>each real estate company, which are all located in Östersund. The results of the investigation</p><p>show that the real estate companys doesn´t use all the theoretical basis there is, when they</p><p>make the credit analysis. The information they use and value depends on their backgrounds,</p><p>former experience and education. Another conclusion is that real estate companys at credit</p><p>analysis of a new started company base their credit analysis on non financial sources. These</p><p>sources could for example be recommendations from respondent´s network of contacts or the</p><p>judgemet of the presumptive tenant´s market plan or financial budget. The investigation also</p><p>shows that from an owner – and concernperspektive there´s divergence in rutines and credit</p><p>management policys. We consider that the real estate companys are reduced rational with the</p><p>credit management process and that they choose to prior other risk factors.</p>

The development process for complex system is typically iterative in nature. Among the critical decisions in managing such process involves deciding how to partition the system development into iterations. This paper proposes a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of such iterative process. The analysis of two special cases of the model provides an insight into how such decision should be made. / Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA)

Thesis (M. Soc. Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 2005.

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