Operational risk management has been identified as one of the primary risk types that short-term insurance companies will have to deal with on a rigorous basis in the future.

Operational risk management has been identified as one of the primary risk types that short-term insurance companies will have to deal with on a rigorous basis in the future.

近年來，美國壽險公司由於過度投資在高風險的垃圾債券及不動產，造成 投資失敗，公司破產事件層出不窮，於是美國NAIC推出了一套根據公司投 資及業務風險為基礎的壽險業風險資本需求（Risk Based Capital）公式 ，以做為新的監理系統，期能振衰起弊，發揮保險監理上早期預警的功能 。本文除了一方面探討過去近年來導致美國壽險業喪失清償能力的原由， 最主要在對於這套新的監理制度，就其公式架構、組成內容及實際的運算 ，加以深入研討，並對於公式本身的相關問題來分析其假設上之合理性。 最後，以RBC 為藍本，對於我國當前有關資本及盈餘的規定，會計制度上 對於資產評價的缺失，及未來RBC 引進國內時，我國現行會計報表資訊揭 露的有關問題，予以分析，並提出個人的意見。正當我國壽險業發展日益 蓬勃的今天，隨著競爭的增加，其經營的風險實不容我們忽視，尤其先進 國家過去歷歷在目的教訓，及早建立一套有效的監理系統，以因應未來的 需要，實有其迫切與重要性在。回顧我國現有制度，不可諱言，需要努力 的地方仍然很多，亟需我們快馬加鞭，急起直追。

The subject of the study for this dissertation is the relationship between pricing and reserving risks for property-casualty insurance companies. Since the risk characteristics of insurers differ based on their structure, objectives and incentives, segmenting the insurers into subgroups would allow for a better understanding of group-specific risks. Based on this approach to analyzing insurer financial risks, we find that, in a given accident year, the pricing and reserving errors are positively correlated, especially in long-tailed lines of business. Large insurers, stock insurers, and multi-state insurers, in general, exhibit a strong correlation between accident-year price and reserve errors. However, only size of insurers appears to be a factor that influences the interaction between price changes and the calendar year loss reserve adjustments. Furthermore, we find that the pricing risk and reserving risk are marginally more homogenous within a market segment when size, type and number of states are employed as criteria for market segmentation, hence insurance regulators should consider the refined market segments for the RBC formula. The empirical results also indicate that, in general, Chain-Ladder reserving method likely contributes to loss reserve errors when there is a change in the loss development pattern and the magnitude of the errors is worse for large insurers. Finally, we find that our proposed measurement method for the product diversification benefit provides support for the notion that the diversification benefit on the incurred losses increases with the number of lines in the portfolio. Yet, the diminishing returns tend to decrease the diversification benefit on the incurred losses for insurers that write the business in more than six of the selected lines. To the contrary, our proposed measure does not provide clear evidence that writing business in many product lines increases the product diversification benefit with respect to adverse loss development. We do find that the diversification benefit for both incurred losses and loss development is higher for larger insurers. Hence, for risk management and regulatory purposes, a stronger case can be made for considering firm size than product diversification.

Many studies suggest the ability of the NAIC Risk-Based Capital ratio (RBC ratio) to predict insurer insolvency. Based on the US life insurer (insurer) data for the period of 2005 to 2008, this study finds explanatory variables that have a statistically significant relationship with the RBC ratio. Advantages of panel data over cross-sectional and time series data analysis are exploited to make valid inference on coefficients of the explanatory variables. Testing for unobserved insurer and time effects and for dependence between these effects and the explanatory variables indicates the appropriateness of the fixed insurer and time effects model. Based on the ordinary least squares estimates, it is found that insurers' size, capital-to-asset ratio, and return on capital have a statistically significant relationship with the RBC ratio. Additionally, health product, annuity product, opportunity, and regulatory risks of insurers are related to the RBC ratio. Accounting for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation for a given insurer yields the same coefficient estimates, but increased standard errors. / text

This study focused on identifying factors that significantly affect the potentially insolvent status of life insurers. The potentially insolvent status is indicated based on insurer’s Risk-based capital ratio (RBC ratio) reported in the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) database of life insurers’ annual statements. A logistic regression analysis is performed to explore the relationship between the RBC insolvent indicator and a set of explanatory variables including insurer’s size, capital, governance structure, membership in a group of affiliated companies, and various risk measures during the 2006-2008 period. The results suggest that the probability of potential insolvency for an individual insurer is significantly affected by its size, capital-to-asset ratio, returns on capital, health product risk and proportion of products reinsured. It could be also possibly affected by the insurer’s regulatory asset risk. However, the results indicate that the probability is not significant related to the insurer’s annuity product risk, opportunity asset risk, governance structure and its membership in a group of affiliated companies. On average, by holding all other explanatory variables constant, every 1% increase in total assets will result in a decrease of 0.19 to 0.36% on the odds of potentially insolvent rates; every 0.01 unit increase in capital-to-asset ratio will result in a decrease of a multiplicative factor of 0.951 to 0.956 on the odds; every 0.01 unit increase in return on capital will result in a decrease of a multiplicative factor of 0.984 to 0.985 on the odds; every 0.01 unit increase in health product risk will result in an increase of a multiplicative factor of 1.021 to 1.031 on the odds; and every 0.01 unit increase in proportion of products reinsured will result in an increase of a multiplicative factor of 1.015 to 1.026 on the odds. The assumptions of independency and absence of harmful multicolliearity are both valid for this logistic model, suggesting that the model is adequate and the conclusion is warranted. Although the potentially insolvent indicator, instead of the real insolvent indicator is used, this model could still be useful to identify the significant factors which affect life insurers’ potentially insolvent status. / text

Banking has a unique role in the well-being of an economy. This role makes banks one of the most heavily regulated and supervised industries. In order to strengthen the soundness and stability of banking systems, regulators require banks to hold adequate capital. While credit risk was the only risk that was covered by the original Basle Accord, with the 1996 amendment, banks have also been required to assign capital for their market risk starting from 1998. In this research, the impact of the market risk capital regulations on bank capital levels and derivative activities is investigated. In addition, this study also evaluates the impact of using different approaches that are allowed to be used while calculating the required market risk capital, as well as the accuracy of VaR models. The implementation of the market risk capital regulations can influence banks either by increasing their capital or by decreasing their trading activities and in particular trading derivative activities. The literature review concerning capital regulations illustrates that in particular the impact of these regulations on bank capital levels and derivative activities is an issue that has not yet been explored. In order to fill this gap, the changes in capital and derivatives usage ratios are modelled by using a partial adjustment framework. The main results of this analysis suggest that the implementation of the market risk capital regulations has a significant and positive impact on the risk-based capital ratios of BHCs. However, the results do not indicate any impact of these regulations on derivative activities. The empirical findings also demonstrate that there is no significant relationship between capital and derivatives. The market risk capital regulations allow the use of either a standardised approach or the VaR methodologies to determine the required capital amounts to cover market risk. In order to evaluate these approaches, firstly differences on bank VaR practices are investigated by employing a documentary analysis. The documentary analysis is conducted to demonstrate the differences in bank VaR practices by comparing the VaR models of 25 international banks. The survey results demonstrate that there, is no industry consensus on the methodology for calculating VaR. This analysis also indicates that the assumptions in estimating VaR models vary considerably among financial institutions. Therefore, it is very difficult for financial market participants to make comparisons across institutions by considering single VaR values. Secondly, the required capital amounts are calculated for two hypothetical foreign exchange portfolios by using both the standardised and three different VaR methodologies, and then these capital amounts are compared. These simulations are conducted to understand to what extent the market risk capital regulations approaches produce different outcomes on the capital levels. The results indicate that the VaR estimates are dependent upon the VaR methodology. Thirdly, three backtesting methodologies are applied to the VaR models. The results indicate that a VaR model that provides accurate estimates for a specific portfolio could fail when the portfolio composition changes. The results of the simulations indicate that the market risk capital regulations do not provide a `level playing field' for banks that are subject to these regulations. In addition, giving an option to banks to determine the VaR methodology could create a moral hazard problem as banks may choose an inaccurate model that provides less required capital amounts.

The purpose of this study is to examine the wealth effect of the Risk-Based Capital (RBC) regulation on the U.S. commercial banking industry. The RBC plan was first proposed in January 1986, and its final form was announced on July 11, 1988. This plan resulted from dissatisfaction with the old capital regulation, which did not account for asset risk and off-balance sheet activities. The present study hypothesizes that the new regulation restricted bank optimal behavior and, therefore, adversely affected stock prices. The second and third hypotheses suggest that investors used company specific information, Net Tier 1 and Total risk-based capital ratios respectively, in valuing stocks of the affected bank holding companies. Hypotheses four and five suggest that abnormal returns are proportionally related to the levels of Net Tier 1 or Total RBC ratio. Both the traditional event study and the portfolio time-series regression, with RBC ratios (Net Tier 1 or Total) as the weight factors, are used in this study.

We develop a framework to quantify credit risks of non-traditional mortgage products (NMPs). Ex ante probabilities of default are caused by willingness-to-pay and ability-to-pay problems and the high default rates for NMPs confirm that payment shock is a critical default risk indicator. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using three correlated stochastic variables (mortgage interest rate, home price, and household income) under normal and stressed economies. Results confirm that the default risk of 2/28 and option ARM contracts requiring a minimum monthly interest payment have a greater probability of default than other mortgage products in all economic scenarios. Additionally, the credit risk of NMPs is primarily systematic risk, suggesting that these products should require higher risk-based capital. Due to the non-linear distribution of credit risk, even the advanced internal-based rating approach of the Basle II framework can understate the risk involved in these NMPs.

We develop a framework to quantify credit risks of non-traditional mortgage products (NMPs). Ex ante probabilities of default are caused by willingness-to-pay and ability-to-pay problems and the high default rates for NMPs confirm that payment shock is a critical default risk indicator. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using three correlated stochastic variables (mortgage interest rate, home price, and household income) under normal and stressed economies. Results confirm that the default risk of 2/28 and option ARM contracts requiring a minimum monthly interest payment have a greater probability of default than other mortgage products in all economic scenarios. Additionally, the credit risk of NMPs is primarily systematic risk, suggesting that these products should require higher risk-based capital. Due to the non-linear distribution of credit risk, even the advanced internal-based rating approach of the Basle II framework can understate the risk involved in these NMPs.