This thesis provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between the value premium and financial distress. Measures of leverage and default are used as proxies for financial distress. Using both an international data set, 1991 to 2006 and a long time series data set for the United States, 1927 – 2007, the thesis adds knowledge about the role of the value premium in asset pricing theory. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic modelling (GARCH) is used and information gathered on the volatility of the value premium. A vector autoregressive (VAR) framework and Granger Causality tests are utilised in order to offer a deeper examination of the relationship between risk premium and economic activity. The results add further evidence to support the view that the value premium appears to be linked to variables associated with financial distress, although it is noted that this does not necessarily mean that participants in financial markets behave rationally.

Thesis supervisor: B Ravikumar. Includes bibliographic references (p. 132-135).

Siu, Tsz Hang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-61). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction and Literature Review --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Data and Methodology --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Portfolio Formation --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Delisting --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3 --- Rebalancing --- p.11 / Chapter 2.4 --- Performance Measurement --- p.12 / Chapter 3 --- Results --- p.16 / Chapter 3.1 --- Daily Portfolio Returns --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2 --- CAPM and Fama French Model --- p.18 / Chapter 3.3 --- Cumulative Returns --- p.22 / Chapter 3.4 --- Over Different Time Periods --- p.22 / Chapter 3.5 --- Analysis on Capital Market Theory --- p.24 / Chapter 3.6 --- Explanations --- p.27 / Chapter 3.6.1 --- Overconfidence --- p.27 / Chapter 3.6.2 --- Anchoring --- p.28 / Chapter 3.6.3 --- A Simple Model and Smoothing Effect --- p.29 / Chapter 3.6.4 --- Securities Selection --- p.32 / Chapter 3.6.5 --- Transaction Costs --- p.32 / Chapter 4 --- Conclusions --- p.33 / Chapter A --- Proof --- p.36 / Chapter B --- Tables and Figures --- p.40 / Bibliography --- p.59

This study provide empirical evidence whether bias in the standard errors of Jensen’s alpha explains conflicting results in the extant literature in real estate funds. Significant alphas in real estate mutual funds and REITs are compared with heteroskedasticity consistent covariance matrix estimators (HC1, HC2 and HC3), Newey-West standard errors, a robust regression tempering the effect of high leverage points, a GARCH model, and a HC3 adjusted wild bootstrap. In the analysis of real estate mutual funds and a separate sample set of REITs, the HCCME had a minimal impact attenuating the number of firms with excess returns. Contrary to expectations the differences from HC1 to HC2 to HC3 were also negligible. The Newey-West standard error provided highly variable results when compared with the OLS results particularly in the REIT sample. Of the techniques to adjust for bias in the standard error, the wild bootstrap with HC3 adjustment to the standard error provided the most conservative result to the number of real estate mutual funds and REITs with significant alphas. The co-movement of real estate funds suggests common exogenous influences. Including state variables such as the changes in unexpected inflation, term spread, default spread, market skewness and industrial production growth in a multi-factor model is used to identify systemic economic factors in significant alphas. The significant alphas varied with the inclusion of these variables, the time period and the bias adjustment.

Although several studies have investigated commercial farmers’ risk preferences, there is still lack of information on the risk attitudes and risk preferences of smallholder farmers in South Africa. Risks associated with the adoption of new agricultural technology need to be explored in order to address the transition from homestead food gardening to smallholder irrigated farming. This study seeks to understand risk perception of smallholder irrigation farmers by linking constraints to commercialisation, adoption of new agricultural technologies and risk preferences of smallholder farmers in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The overall objective of this research is to determine risk preference patterns and attitudes that influence the transition from homestead food gardening to irrigated farming of smallholder farming systems in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Specifically the study was to pursue the following objectives: (i) describe the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of smallholder farmers; (ii) describe existing farming systems among smallholder farmers in the study area; (iii) analyse the adoption of new agricultural technology by smallholder irrigation farmers; (iv) assess the risk perception of smallholder irrigation farmers and elicit farmers risk preferences, and (v) empirically analyse farmers sources of risk and risk management strategies. The outcome of this will inform policy formulation that have implications for technology adoption, increase smallholders capacity to bear risk and enable government and other role players have a clear understanding of smallholder farmers decisions. A total of 101 respondents were surveyed, consisting of 38 smallholder farmers and 63 homestead food gardeners in the Eastern Cape. Questionnaires were used to record household activities, socio-economic and institutional data as well as household demographics through personal interviews. The ordered probit model was applied due to the ordered nature of the dependent variable. The analysis was used to empirically analyse the determinants of farmers ‘risk preference status. The ordered probit model successfully estimated the significant variables associated with the farmer‘s adoption decisions. These were the farmer‘s age, household size, land size, locational setting, risk attitude, number of livestock (goats and chicken) and asset ownership. Homestead food gardeners were less risk averse that the smallholder farmers. Farmers who reside in the sub-wards Binfield and Battlefield were more likely to take risk than those who reside in Melani. This suggests the presence of local synergies in adoption which raises the question about the extent to which ignoring these influences biases policy conclusions. The negative correlation between land size and adoption implies that smaller farms appear to have greater propensity for adoption of new agricultural technology. This finding is supported by several studies reviewed in the literature that allude to the fact that homestead food gardeners tend to be smaller than smallholder farmers. By means of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), seven principal components (PCs) that explained 66.13 percent of the variation were extracted. According to the loadings, the factors 1 to 7 can best be described as ‘financial and incentives index’, ‘input-output index’, ‘crop production index’, ‘labour bottleneck index’, ‘lack of production information index’, ‘lack of market opportunity index’, and ‘input availability index’ respectively. In general, price, production and financial risks were perceived as the most important sources of risk. Socio economic factors having a significant effect on the various sources of risk are age, gender, education, location, information access and risk taking ability. The most important traditional risk management strategies used by the surveyed smallholder farmers in Eastern Cape are crop diversification, precautionary savings and participating in social network. The findings are consistent with economic theory which postulates that in the absence of insurance markets, poor farm households tend to be risk averse and are reluctant to participate in farm investment decisions that are uncertain or involve higher risk.

Although several studies have investigated on commercial farmers’ risk preferences, there is still lack of information on the risk attitudes and risk preferences of smallholder farmers in South Africa. Risks associated with the adoption of new agricultural technology need to be explored in order to address the transition from homestead food gardening to smallholder irrigated farming. This study seeks to understand risk perception of smallholder irrigation farmers by linking constraints to commercialisation, adoption of new agricultural technologies and risk preferences of smallholder farmers in the former Ciskei Homelands of the Eastern Cape. A total of 101 respondents were surveyed, consisting of 38 smallholder farmers and 63 homestead food gardeners in the Eastern Cape. Questionnaires were used to record household activities, socio-economic and institutional data as well as household demographics through personal interviews. The probit results indicated that older farmers are less risk averse thus more willing to take risk. The risk analysis indicates that farmers who are employed elsewhere are more willing to take risk as income is playing a major role in risk preferences. The results also prove that factors such as tenure system and years in farming have a major influence on farmers’ decision to take risk and adopt new agricultural technology. According to the multi-logit model the major factors influencing technology adoption and risk taking are household size, water rate and type of irrigation system used by the farmers. This study provides useful practical insights for policy makers, farm advisers and researchers in the design of effective and efficient policies, programmes and projects which can affect the adoption of technology, increase smallholder farmers capacity to manage risk and drive growth in the food market.