Water resource infrastructure in cold regions of the world can be significantly impacted by the existence of river ice. Major engineering concerns related to river ice include ice jam flooding, the design and operation of hydropower facilities and other hydraulic structures, water supplies, as well as ecological, environmental, and morphological effects. The use of numerical simulation models has been identified as one of the most efficient means by which river ice processes can be studied and the effects of river ice be evaluated. The continued advancement of these simulation models will help to develop new theories and evaluate potential mitigation alternatives for these ice issues. In this thesis, a literature review of existing river ice numerical models, of anchor ice formation and modeling studies, and of aufeis formation and modeling studies is conducted. A high level summary of the two-dimensional CRISSP numerical model is presented as well as the developed freeze-up model with a focus specifically on the anchor ice and aufeis growth processes. This model includes development in the detailed heat transfer calculations, an improved surface ice mass exchange model which includes the rapids entrainment process, and an improved dry bed treatment model along with the expanded anchor ice and aufeis growth model. The developed sub-models are tested in an ideal channel setting as somewhat of a model confirmation. A case study of significant anchor ice and aufeis growth on the Nelson River in northern Manitoba, Canada, will be the primary field test case for the anchor ice and aufeis model. A second case study on the same river will be used to evaluate the surface ice components of the model in a field setting. The results from these cases studies will be used to highlight the capabilities and deficiencies in the numerical model and to identify areas of further research and model development.

Water resource infrastructure in cold regions of the world can be significantly impacted by the existence of river ice. Major engineering concerns related to river ice include ice jam flooding, the design and operation of hydropower facilities and other hydraulic structures, water supplies, as well as ecological, environmental, and morphological effects. The use of numerical simulation models has been identified as one of the most efficient means by which river ice processes can be studied and the effects of river ice be evaluated. The continued advancement of these simulation models will help to develop new theories and evaluate potential mitigation alternatives for these ice issues. In this thesis, a literature review of existing river ice numerical models, of anchor ice formation and modeling studies, and of aufeis formation and modeling studies is conducted. A high level summary of the two-dimensional CRISSP numerical model is presented as well as the developed freeze-up model with a focus specifically on the anchor ice and aufeis growth processes. This model includes development in the detailed heat transfer calculations, an improved surface ice mass exchange model which includes the rapids entrainment process, and an improved dry bed treatment model along with the expanded anchor ice and aufeis growth model. The developed sub-models are tested in an ideal channel setting as somewhat of a model confirmation. A case study of significant anchor ice and aufeis growth on the Nelson River in northern Manitoba, Canada, will be the primary field test case for the anchor ice and aufeis model. A second case study on the same river will be used to evaluate the surface ice components of the model in a field setting. The results from these cases studies will be used to highlight the capabilities and deficiencies in the numerical model and to identify areas of further research and model development.

The frequency, magnitude, and atmospheric drivers of winter hydroclimatic conditions conducive to snowmelt in western Canada were evaluated. These hydroclimatic variables were linked to the mid-winter break-up of river ice that included the creation of a comprehensive database including 46 mid-winter river ice break-up events in western Canada (1950-2008) and six events in Alaska (1950-2014). Widespread increases in above-freezing temperatures and spatially diverse increases in rainfall were detected over the study period (1946-2012), particularly during January and March. Critical elevation zones representing the greatest rate of change were identified for major river basins. Specifically, low-elevation (500-1000 m) temperature changes dominated the Stikine, Nass, Skeena, and Fraser river basins and low to mid-elevation changes (700-1500 m) dominated the Peace, Athabasca, Saskatchewan, and Columbia river basins. The greatest increases in rainfall were seen below 700 m and between 1200-1900 m in the Fraser and at mid- to high-elevations (1500-2200 m) in the Peace, Athabasca, and Saskatchewan river basins. Daily synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were classified using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and corresponding hydroclimatic variables were evaluated. Frequency, persistence, and preferred shifts of identified synoptic types provided additional insight into characteristics of dominant atmospheric circulation patterns. Trend analyses revealed significant (p < 0.05) decreases in two dominant synoptic types: a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean and adjacent trough of low pressure over western Canada, which directs the movement of cold, dry air over the study region, and zonal flow with westerly flow from the Pacific Ocean over the study region. Conversely, trend analyses revealed an increase in the frequency and persistence of a ridge of high pressure over western Canada over the study period. However, step-change analysis revealed a decrease in zonal flows and an increase in the occurrence of high-pressure ridges over western Canada in 1977, coinciding with a shift to a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation regime. A ridge of high pressure over western Canada was associated with a high frequency and magnitude of above-freezing temperatures and rainfall in the study region. This pattern is highly persistent and elicits a strong surface climate response. A ridge of high pressure and associated above-freezing temperatures and rainfall was also found to be the primary driver of mid-winter river ice break-up with rainfall being a stronger driver west of the Rocky Mountains and temperature to the east. These results improve our understanding of the drivers of threats to snowpack integrity and the generation of extreme hydrologic events. / Graduate

River ice breakup is a vital process to the morphology and hydrology of many rivers in Canada, often governing peak flows of the river. These events can occur through multiple mechanisms, with the potential for volatile or early breakup events that can have severe impacts to the river. Ice jam flooding can be a potentially devastating result of river ice breakup while early breakup of ice cover in a mid-winter breakup can be unpredictable and greatly alter the remaining ice season. These events are growing increasingly common as a result of climate change, and as a result there is a need to develop prediction tools for these events to aid in decision making support. Past investigations into developing such tools, especially from a data-driven modelling perspective, are challenged by the availability and complexity of the data related to these rare and dangerous to measure events. Therefore, the goal of this dissertation was to develop and apply methods to address the historical challenges and shortcomings in predicting these events through the use of data-driven modelling techniques. This includes: i) development of a stacking ensemble modelling framework for the prediction of ice jam presence during the spring breakup season of a river, utilising variable selection and rare-event forecasting techniques in combination with a comprehensive selection of machine-learning algorithms; ii) return period and trend analysis of mid-winter breakups in conjunction with comprehensive input analysis techniques to identify the key drivers of these events’ severity and develop a means of classifying the flood risk based on hydroclimatic traits; iii) the development of a two-level modelling system for the prediction of the occurrence and timing of mid-winter breakups on a national scale utilising rare event forecasting techniques and imbalanced learning; and iv) development of a novel hybrid semantic and machine learning modelling system in which an ontology is used in conjunction with network analysis techniques to select variables for machine learning models, which is used on a national case study of the prediction of spring breakup timing in Canada. The results of each study in application to their respective case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques, which are shown to be easily adaptable to other regions or locations. These techniques can form the backbone of decision-making support for communities on rivers that are affected by the unpredictable and oftentimes volatile nature of river ice breakup. / Thesis / Candidate in Philosophy / River ice breakup is a key event to the hydrology of rivers throughout Canada, playing a major role in their physical and ecological characteristics. The timing and mechanism of these events can, however, be unpredictable and volatile, with the effects of climate change only exacerbating these risks. This dissertation focuses on addressing these potential issues through the application of machine learning and hybrid modeling in the prediction of river ice breakup events. Advanced data driven techniques coupled with novel applications of other analytical methods are used to: i) predict the presence of ice jams through the application of stacking ensemble modelling; ii) predict the severity of mid-winter breakups through application of trend and variable analysis; iii) predict the occurrence and timing of mid-winter breakups using rare-event forecasting techniques; and iv) develop a novel hybrid modelling scheme coupling ontology-based semantic modelling and machine learning to predict spring breakup timing. Detailed case studies for each application are provided demonstrating the effectiveness of the discussed techniques.

A return-period analysis of annual peak spring break-up and open-water levels for 136 Water Survey of Canada hydrometric stations was used to classify rivers across Canada and to assess the physical controls on peak break-up water-levels. According to the peak water-level river-regime classification and subsequent analysis, 32% of rivers were classified as spring break-up dominated, characterized by low elevations and slopes and large basin sizes while 45% were open-water dominated and associated with alpine environments of high elevations and channel slopes, and smaller basin sizes. The remaining 23% of rivers were classified as a mixed regime. A spatial and temporal analysis (1969-2006) of the river ice break-up season using hydrometric variables of timing and water levels, never before assessed at the northern Canada-wide scale, revealed significant declines in break-up water levels and significant trends towards earlier and prolonged break-up in western and central Canada. The spatial and temporal influence of air temperature on break-up timing was assessed using the spring 0°C isotherm, which revealed a significant positive relationship but no spatial patterns. In the case of major ocean/atmosphere oscillations, significant negative (positive) correlations indicate that break-up occurs earlier (later) during the positive phases of the Pacific North American Pattern (El Niño Southern Oscillation) over most of western Canada. Fewer significant positive correlations show that break-up occurs later during the positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in eastern Canada. / Graduate

River-ice break-up in high-latitude regions, despite its brevity, is a fundamental process, representing the most dynamic and complex period of fluvial processes. Moreover, ice break-up has significant cascading ecological effects, with a different severity for mechanical vs. thermal break-up, and thus, motivates the importance of monitoring efforts. Classical research methods, such as fieldwork or analysis of photographs and aerial imagery, offer a general perspective on the timing of ice break-up but have safety and logistic issues caused by the dangers of unstable ice cover, the lag times between event occurrence and observation, and the frequent low visibilities. The emerging field of environmental seismology, which studies surface processes through seismic signals, provides an alternative solution to these shortcomings by continuously recording high temporal resolution data. Seismic sensing can potentially record any event within a set distance if the produced signal is powerful enough. Three geophones had monitored the subarctic Sävar River reach for 185 days to test the efficiency of seismic methods to capture ice-cracking events, and based on their characteristics, to identify thermal vs. mechanical ice break-up. With visual and multivariate analysis, seismic methods provided a conservative set of 2 228 events, detected at milliseconds precision, described, and located. Besides, both trigger lag times and principal component analysis depicted correlations between environmental drivers and ice-cracking events. The automatic picker based on duration and trigger thresholds required manual supervision because of the initial numerous false signals that accounted for 96% of total initial events. Ice-cracking signals as short as 0.2s and frequencies of 8-40 Hz with an average power of -117 dB were statistically defined, classified, and described by case events as two types, associated, based on their spectral and temporal patterns, with the two ice break-up modes. With an estimated Rayleigh wave velocity of 680 m/s, all ice-cracking signals' locations were within the instrumented area. Trigger lag times analysis improved detection and showed a strong link between ice-cracking events and drivers of lag times less than three hours, including near-immediate responses (&lt; 2s). With multivariate analysis, the lag times showed a mainly climatic control for thermal melting and a primarily fluvial control in mechanical ice break-up. The combination of statistical and seismic analysis provides, despite the considerable manual screening, a valid and potentially site-transferable method to extract and describe ice-cracking signals and thus identify ice break-up modes in northern rivers.

Concern has been expressed regarding the impacts of climate change on the hydroecology of the Mackenzie Delta, thus identifying a need for better understanding of the ice break-up regime. Archived records at hydrometric stations in the delta for the period 1974 to 2006, supplemented with observations and remotely sensed imagery, are used to assemble a break-up chronology and examine spatial and temporal patterns of break-up flooding. Hydroclimatic controls on break-up are assessed by statistical, qualitative, and trend analysis of upstream discharge and downstream ice characteristics. For the most severe break-up flooding, two event types are identified: ice-driven events, with high backwater and high peak levels in the southern, eastern and western delta, and discharge-driven events, with high levels in the mid and outer delta and along Middle Channel. Break-up initiation during ice (discharge) events occurs earlier (later) than the delta average. Severity of break-up water levels is most influenced by upstream discharge, while timing is related to ice conditions and spring hydrograph rise. Rapid upstream melt and lower intensity melt in the delta prior to break-up characterize the most severe events. Trend analysis reveals a tendency toward earlier break-up, a longer prebreak-up melt interval, and a lower magnitude of hydroclimatic controls.

Concern has been expressed regarding the impacts of climate change on the hydroecology of the Mackenzie Delta, thus identifying a need for better understanding of the ice break-up regime. Archived records at hydrometric stations in the delta for the period 1974 to 2006, supplemented with observations and remotely sensed imagery, are used to assemble a break-up chronology and examine spatial and temporal patterns of break-up flooding. Hydroclimatic controls on break-up are assessed by statistical, qualitative, and trend analysis of upstream discharge and downstream ice characteristics. For the most severe break-up flooding, two event types are identified: ice-driven events, with high backwater and high peak levels in the southern, eastern and western delta, and discharge-driven events, with high levels in the mid and outer delta and along Middle Channel. Break-up initiation during ice (discharge) events occurs earlier (later) than the delta average. Severity of break-up water levels is most influenced by upstream discharge, while timing is related to ice conditions and spring hydrograph rise. Rapid upstream melt and lower intensity melt in the delta prior to break-up characterize the most severe events. Trend analysis reveals a tendency toward earlier break-up, a longer prebreak-up melt interval, and a lower magnitude of hydroclimatic controls.