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An Empirical Investigation of the Discriminant and Predictive Ability of the SFAS No. 69 Signals for Business Failure in the Oil and Gas IndustryEldahrawy, Kamal 12 1900 (has links)
In 1982, the Financial Accounting Board (FASB) issued Statment of Financial Accounting Standards No. 69 (SFAS No. 69) which required oil and gas producing companies to disclose supplementary information to the basic financial statements. These disclosures include, costs incurred, capitalized costs, reserve quantities, and a standardized measure of discounted cash flows. The FASB considered these disclosures to be necessary to compensate for the deficiencies in historical cost financial statements. The usefulness of the new signals created by SFAS No. 69, however, is an empirical question and research regarding that objective is lacking. The objective of the study is to test the usefulness of SFAS No. 69. The research strategy used to achieve that objective is to compare the discriminant and predictive power of SFAS No. 69 signals or SFAS No. 69 signals combined with financial signals to that of financial signals alone. The research hypothesized that SFAS No. 69 signals by themselves or as supplmentary to financial signals have more discriminant and predictive ability for business failure in oil and gas industry than do financial signals alone. In order to test that hypothesis, the study used the multiple discriminant analysis technique (MDA) to develop three equations. The first is based on SFAS NO. 69 signals, the second on financial statement signals, and the third on joint financial and SFAS No. 69 signals. Data were collected from the 10-K's arid the annual reports of 28 oil and gas companies (14 failed and 14 nonfailed). The analysis was repeated for four time bases, one year before failure, two years before failure, three years before failure, and the average of the three years immediately before failure. After assessing the discriminant and predictive ability of each equation in the four time bases, a t-test was used to determine a significant difference in the discriminant and predictive power existed between SFAS No. 69 signals or SFAS No. 69 signals combined with financial signals and financial signals alone. The study concluded that SFAS No. 69 signals by themselves or as supplementary to financial statements have more discriminant and predictive power for business failure than financial signals alone in the analyses of the third year before failure and of the average of three years before failure. The study, however, found no significant difference in the discriminant and predictive ability in the analyses of one year and two years before failure. The results indicated that SFAS No. 69 signals are useful for financial report users in detecting the deterioration of the financial position of an oil and gas company before failure.
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