<p>In this study we examine trade patterns between Turkey and 13 member states of the European Union and how these have developed over the time period of 1983 – 2006. To represent the industrial and agricultural goods included in the study we look at the United Nations Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Following, we investigate internal differences in the EU by selecting four countries each to represent the Northern and Southern countries of the EU. Internal differences were studied in relation to the amount of trade occurring between Turkey and the Northern and Southern countries. The main result is that Turkey is not of great significance for the EU. For Turkey however, the EU is a highly significant trade partner. The observed patterns indicate that trade deepening between Turkey and EU13 has occurred gradually, implying that the Customs Union from 1996 cannot be said to have caused severe differences in the Turkish-EU13 trade relations. For this trade agreement however, no effects on the trade development was directly related to the implementation of the CU. Following, the EU can continue to act as an important partner for future Turkish trade relations. No severe differences are to be expected in the development for trade in goods as free trade already is widely spread within this area. Instead, the major difference of a Turkish entry into the EU will most likely occur when introducing free movement of capital, services and people.</p>

In this study we examine trade patterns between Turkey and 13 member states of the European Union and how these have developed over the time period of 1983 – 2006. To represent the industrial and agricultural goods included in the study we look at the United Nations Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Following, we investigate internal differences in the EU by selecting four countries each to represent the Northern and Southern countries of the EU. Internal differences were studied in relation to the amount of trade occurring between Turkey and the Northern and Southern countries. The main result is that Turkey is not of great significance for the EU. For Turkey however, the EU is a highly significant trade partner. The observed patterns indicate that trade deepening between Turkey and EU13 has occurred gradually, implying that the Customs Union from 1996 cannot be said to have caused severe differences in the Turkish-EU13 trade relations. For this trade agreement however, no effects on the trade development was directly related to the implementation of the CU. Following, the EU can continue to act as an important partner for future Turkish trade relations. No severe differences are to be expected in the development for trade in goods as free trade already is widely spread within this area. Instead, the major difference of a Turkish entry into the EU will most likely occur when introducing free movement of capital, services and people.

This thesis deals with design of precautionary measures for Czech engineering companies to defend against the threat of potential economic downturn in China. Analytical part contains descriptions of individual industry sections, correlation analyses of selected indicators and history of international trade in between relevant countries. In the last chapter, the mathematical models with time series prediction, as well as the risk analysis and proposal of precautionary measures, are carried out.