Thesis (M.B.A.)--Boston University / PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you. / 2031-01-01

Thesis (M.S.)--Wisconsin. / Includes bibliographical references (leaf 74).

M.Com. (Business Management) / Forecasting is an important function used in a wide range of business planning or decision-making situations. The purpose ofthis study was to build a sales forecasting model that would be practical and cost effective, from the various forecasting methods and techniques available. Various forecast models, methods and techniques are outlined in the initial part of this study by the author. The author has outlined some of the fundamentals and limitations that underline the preparations of forecasting models. It is not the purpose of this study to microscopically dissect each forecasting model, method or technique. Various forecasting options were assessed in a manner that could provide some relevance to the study, thus providing a general framework for the construction of the specific sales forecasting model. Appropriate data sources were described and analysed. The data was further tested using the author's chosen quantitative forecasting techniques. Results were interpreted, and included into the author's untested sales model. It is the author's opinion that the sales model is practical, cost effective and gives a general sales forecast.

Thesis--New York University. / Bibliography: leaves 207-212.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1953. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Bibliographies: leaves 288-293.

This study investigated forecasting accuracy over time. Several quantitative and qualitative forecasting models were tested and a number of combinational methods was investigated. Six time series methods, one causal model, and one subjective technique were compared in this study. Six combinational forecasts were generated and compared to individual forecasts. A combining technique was developed. Thirty data sets, obtained from a market leader in the cosmetics industry, were used to forecast sales. All series represent monthly sales from January 1985 to December 1989. Gross sales forecasts from January 1988 to June 1989 were generated by the company using econometric models. All data sets exhibited seasonality and trend.

No description available.

This thesis presents a general review of sales forecasting literature with particular attention to the preparation of the sales forecast, the pre-planning activities and the review. In addition, forecasts are developed which show the expected sales of domestic softwood plywood to be realized by the plywood industry for the years 1964 and 1968. A procedure is then presented that Crown Zellerbach Company can follow in using the industry forecast to ascertain their share of the expected softwood plywood sales. Sales forecasting is an essential prerequisite to company planning. Therefore, forecasts must be as accurate as possible because many activities within the firm are based on the sales forecasts. With the assistance of sales forecasts, vital marketing, financial and production plans ultimately emerge, together with their supporting schedules. The person responsible for the forecasting task must acquire not only a detailed understanding of company activities but also a thorough knowledge of the characteristics of a sound forecasting operation. The forecaster must be familiar with the various judgment, survey and statistical techniques available for developing forecasts and he must understand the necessity of carrying out numerous pre-performance and post-performance activities. The pre-performance activities must be dutifully carried out if the most useful forecasting method is to be chosen. Post-performance activities are equally important. A time-table for review and revision when necessary must be drawn up ahead of time if proper control is to be exercised over the forecast. A simple regression equation and three multiple regression equations are developed with the intention of using one or more of them to forecast industry softwood plywood sales for the years 1964 and 1968. The three multiple linear regression equations are rejected because each of them possesses one or more unacceptable negative constants. The simple linear regression equation has an extremely high coefficient of correlation and a small standard error of estimate. Since this equation contains these desirable features and seems to incorporate no underlying fallacy, this simple regression equation is the one chosen to forecast industry plywood sales. The share-of-market approach is used to determine the proportion of the industry sales to be captured by Crown Zellerbach Company. The total projected industry sales figures are multiplied by a percentage which represents the company's present share of the total market. The figures that result represent the anticipated plywood sales to be achieved by Crown Zellerbach Company for the years 1964 and 1968. Crown Zellerbach should not depend solely on the technique developed in this thesis for forecasting plywood sales. They should continue to use the subjective or judgment technique that they have used for a number of years, but they would follow a better course if they used one or more statistical or survey methods in addition to the present method. A final forecast could be selected after an analysis had been made of the forecasted figures developed by the various methods. / Business, Sauder School of / Marketing, Division of / Graduate

This thesis is concerned with that part of retail location analysis which involves estimating the sales volume potential for a proposed shopping centre. It examines the practised methods and available models employed in the prediction of potential sales volumes. A survey of the literature dealing with techniques of sales volume estimation revealed that the theory behind sales volume estimating was somewhat disjointed, since the models and methods available emphasized different approaches and factors, and ignored or inadequately accounted for others. Furthermore, it was apparent that predictive accuracy was far from satisfactory with the presently available tools of analysis. It was felt that the problem revolved around the assumptions and factors inherent or absent in each model or method. Since estimating a potential sales volume for a proposed centre involved estimating the number of consumers who will patronize that centre, it becomes obvious that an accurate estimate of expected consumer patronage necessitates an understanding of the factors and influences which motivate consumers in their choice of a particular retail outlet in which to purchase desired merchandise. It was felt that by examining these determinants of consumer behaviour, some light could be shed on those factors which are inadequately recognized or represented in the various methods and models examined in this thesis. This thesis, then, first examines the validity and limitations of the many arguments, assumptions, concepts, and factors considered to be important in a discussion of the determinants of consumer patronage behaviour. It then examines the various models and methods in order to a) determine how adequately they recognize and incorporate these arguments, assumptions, concepts, and factors in their formulae or procedures, and b) evaluate their ability to produce theoretically sound, consistent predictions. The models and methods are found to be largely incapable of accurate and consistent predictions owing to their oversimplified and imprecise construction. Inadequately represented consumer patronage factors are presented which, if they were more explicitly recognized, would tend to improve the predictive capabilities of the models and methods. These factors are shown to be additional factors of attraction and resistance which influence the consumer in his choice of a shopping destination. The main conclusion presented is that if these factors were more precisely defined and quantified, and more explicitly recognized in the formulae, either through restructuring the parameters or through expanding the number of variables in the formulae, the descriptive and predictive capabilities of these models and methods might be improved with a corresponding decrease in the necessity for subjective judgment. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

This study specifically deals with finding a pragmatic solution to the problem of sales forecasting and demand planning in a very dynamic industry, the dairy industry, in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) market. Two projects surrounding the Parmalat supply chain were commissioned, the first dealing with sales forecasting, and the second dealing with distribution replenishment planning. This dissertation handles the former and sought to find solutions and integrate the strategic or long-term planning process with the operational forecasting process, and effectively integrate both these into the Parmalat supply chain management process. Of great importance to us during the project was the organizations maturity and level of business discipline currently prevalent, you would therefore constantly find reference to improvements required in other business process in support of a more sophisticated world class Supply Chain Management (SCM) system. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.