A dissertation submitted in the fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science (MSc) (Geography Archaeology and Environmental Studies) Faculty of Science. University of the Witwatersrand. Johannesburg, March 2016. / The southern African sardine run is an annually recurring phenomenon involving vast schools of sardines travelling northwards along the east coast of South Africa. Climate change is assumed responsible for recently observed changes in the occurrence of sardine runs, yet data have been absent to quantify any phenological changes over time. The National Library of South Africa has extensive archives of Kwa-Zulu Natal based newspapers which were scrutinized to determine the annual arrival of sardines at specific places along the east coast between 1946 and 2012. In particular, ‘The Natal Mercury’, ‘South Coast Herald’ and ‘South Coast Sun’ newspapers were consulted. This yielded an uninterrupted sardine run record spanning 66 consecutive years. This is the first such study examining historical fish phenology in the southern Hemisphere. A variety of environmental conditions is thought to influence the sardine runs and may include, oceanic temperatures, oceanic currents, visibility of the water, wind speed/direction and air temperature. We thus also demonstrate historical climate variability and change along the east coast for the period between 1936 and 2012, based on data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the South African Weather Service. In particular, we examine the parameters: temperature, wind, the occurrence of westerly wave disturbances (i.e. cold fronts), the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation Index. The sardine run data are then compared against the various climate parameters to ascertain which variables most influence their phenology. It is found that the sardine runs have become more temporally delayed during recent years, particularly since the late 1960s/early 1970s, and may be associated with considerable increases in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) since that time. / TG2016

The sardine run is a spectacular but poorly understood natural phenomenon. This research aims to broaden scientific knowledge pertaining to sardine, Sardinops sagax, distribution, both in relation to their predators and environmental conditions. Sardine distribution was closely related to sea temperature. Sardines were sighted every year along the Lower Wild Coast, where continental shelf conditions were cooled by the Port Alfred upwelling cell. To the north of Mbashe River, shelf conditions were dominated by the warm Agulhas Current, and sardine distribution varied annually in close relation with sea temperature conditions. Along this coastline sardine abundance always peaked between Waterfall Bluff and Port St Johns with favourable conditions caused by the westward inflection of the coastline and the shelf bathymetry. Topographically-induced upwelling was concluded to be the cause of cooler sea temperatures and elevated chl a concentrations. Although chl a concentration appeared to be associated with east coast sardine distribution, the uncertainty with regards data accuracy hindered their usefulness as a predictor of suitable biological conditions for sardine. Sardine northward movement along the KZN coastline was impeded adjacent to the Durban Eddy, where they were forced shorewards by the warm conditions. This coincided with the peak in beach seine catches. The Cape Gannet, Morus capensis, was very closely associated with sardine along the entire east coast. Their abundance declined substantially adjacent to the Durban Eddy. Prevailing atmospheric conditions affected gannet behaviour: they travelled more frequently during strong alongshore winds and foraged more upon cessation of such winds. Gannets were closely associated with feeding dolphins at both coarse and fine scales, and responded to changes in dolphin behaviour. Common dolphin, Delphinus capensis, abundance and group size peaked between Waterfall Bluff and Port St Johns. Along this stretch of coastline they travelled more slowly, and in pods more perpendicular to the bathymetry of the region. Bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops aduncus, abundance increased during the sardine run with the influx of a migrant stock which reached the KZN Mid South Coast. Humpback Whale, Megaptera novaeangliae, and sardine distributions did not appear to be related. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2009.

Huge populations of sardine and anchovy exist in the four major upwelling systems around the world. These fish are both important ecologically and economically. Pelagic fish dominate the mid trophic level and can exert both a top-down control of zooplankton and a bottom-up control on predatory fish and marine top predators. They also make up a substantial contribution of the world catches in seas around the world where they co-exist in upwelling areas. The fluctuations of sardine and anchovy are largely influenced by recruitment from the larval stage and by the physical environmental forces that determine the planktonic compositions upon which they feed. In southern Africa, the biology and behaviour of two threatened seabird species, African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) and Cape gannets (Morus capensis), are directly influenced by the availability of sardine (Sardinops sagax) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus). This study aimed to provide further insight into the fluctuations of sardine and anchovy in relation to the variability of environmental factors such as wind, sea surface temperature, rainfall and plankton abundance, focusing specifically on Algoa Bay in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Algoa Bay is particularly important as it is home to the world’s largest African penguin colony and the world’s largest gannetry. Therefore, to further investigate the populations of these two seabird species, the fluctuations of their food source were studied.

Submitted in fulfilment of the requirement for the Degree of Masters in Technology: Marketing, Durban University of Technology, 2007. / The sardine run event has been hailed as a big tourism event, yet little is known about how the sardine run affects the economy as a tourism event. Although there are numerous articles to be found on the role of tourism events in economic upliftment, very little research has been done in South Africa on this particular event, especially relating to the indigenous community involvement and the financial gain achieved from the sardine run. The study was conducted in KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa) in the Ugu districts of Hibberdene and Margate, using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The sample for the study consisted of three hundred and twenty nine respondents above the age of 16. The respondents were selected using convenience sampling and had to complete a questionnaire with the assistance of an interviewer. The objective of the research was to determine the extent to which the indigenous community's services are being marketed during the sardine run events, and how the run contributes to the economic well-being of the inhabitants of the area. The results of the research revealed that a large percentage of the respondents knew about the sardine run, with males generally having a higher awareness level than females. This finding is important because females often play a major role as breadwinners in their families. The fact that females take a less active role in the sardine run indicates an opportunity that can be exploited by those involved in the sardine run, and by local governmental and non-governmental organisations whose task it is to improve the social and economic well being of the community. The main issue was that of participation, which is low. A low participation rate has implications for skills development and reflects an opportunity for central and local government, training and educational institutions, organisations involved in the sardine run and local businesses to provide training for unemployed or under-employed youth. / M

Dissertation submitted in compliance with the requirements for the Masters Degree in Technology in the Department of Marketing, Durban University of Technology, 2009. / The dissertation presents an overview on market segmentation established on the basis of collection of information. The study illustrates the important role of information in tourism and examines the socio-economic impact of the sardine run event and the marketing strategy in the South Coast Region of KwaZulu -Natal. A survey of the tourists at the sardine run event was conducted. There is no reason to divide customers and prospects into separate groups if they are going to be treated the same. This research examines the nature of what might be the overall personality type of the tourist and how this overall picture can be used to identify individual characteristics much more coherently and use the information to develop the marketing strategy. In line with the overview of major attempts to measure the effectiveness of a marketing strategy, this dissertation suggests that segmentation is imperative for strategy development. One key goal of each information strategy lies in an optimal matching between segmentation and marketing strategy. The findings of the study revealed that the economic impact of an event normally focuses on changes in sales, income and employment in a region as a result of tourism activity. Secondly, this research proposes that income influences tourists’ spending patterns. Since almost no research has been conducted on the analyses of the socio-economic impact and the marketing strategy of the sardine run, this research should contribute to knowledge about the target market and the socio- economic impact of the event.

Dissertation submitted in compliance with the requirements for the Masters Degree in Technology in the Department of Marketing, Durban University of Technology, 2009. / The dissertation presents an overview on market segmentation established on the basis of collection of information. The study illustrates the important role of information in tourism and examines the socio-economic impact of the sardine run event and the marketing strategy in the South Coast Region of KwaZulu -Natal. A survey of the tourists at the sardine run event was conducted. There is no reason to divide customers and prospects into separate groups if they are going to be treated the same. This research examines the nature of what might be the overall personality type of the tourist and how this overall picture can be used to identify individual characteristics much more coherently and use the information to develop the marketing strategy. In line with the overview of major attempts to measure the effectiveness of a marketing strategy, this dissertation suggests that segmentation is imperative for strategy development. One key goal of each information strategy lies in an optimal matching between segmentation and marketing strategy. The findings of the study revealed that the economic impact of an event normally focuses on changes in sales, income and employment in a region as a result of tourism activity. Secondly, this research proposes that income influences tourists’ spending patterns. Since almost no research has been conducted on the analyses of the socio-economic impact and the marketing strategy of the sardine run, this research should contribute to knowledge about the target market and the socio- economic impact of the event.