Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / This dissertation investigates the long run and short run relationships between Saudi stock market returns and eight macroeconomic variables. We investigate the ability of these variables to predict the level and volatility of Saudi stock market returns. A wide range of Vector autoregression (VAR) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models estimated and interpreted. A Johansen-Juselius cointegration test indicates a positive long run relationship between the Saudi stock price index and the M2 money supply, bank credit, and the price of oil, and a negative long run relationship with the M1 money supply, the short term interest rate, inflation, and the U.S. stock market. An estimated vector error correction model (VECM) suggests significant unidirectional short run causal relationships between Saudi stock market returns and the money supply and inflation. The VECM also finds a significant long run causal relationship among the macroeconomic variables in the system. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Saudi stock market converges to the equilibrium within half a year. Granger causality tests show no causal relationship between Saudi stock market returns and the exchange rate. Impulse response function analysis shows no significant relationship between Saudi stock market returns and the macroeconomic variables. Forecast error variance decompositions suggest that 89% of the variation in Saudi stock market returns is attributable to its own shock, which implies that Saudi stock market returns are largely independent of the macroeconomic variables in the system. Finally, a GARCH-X model indicates a significant relationship between volatility of Saudi stock returns and short run movements of macroeconomic variables. Implications of this study include the following. (i) Prediction of stock market returns becomes more difficult as the volatility of the macroeconomic variables increases in the short run. (ii) Investors should look at the systematic risks revealed by these macroeconomic variables when structuring their portfolios and diversification strategies. (iii) Policymakers should seek to minimize macroeconomic fluctuations considering the effect of macroeconomic variables changes on the stock market when formulating economic policy.

This dissertation is divided into an introductory chapter and four essays. Chapter one discusses the importance of the study and describes the development and growth of the market as well. The first part (Chapters 2 & 3) examines stock returns behaviour and trading activity around earnings announcements. The second part (Chapters 4 & 5) examines price impact asymmetry and the price effects of block trades in the market microstructure context. Each essay addresses some aspects of market microstructure and stock returns behaviour in order to aid researchers, investors and regulators to understand a market which lacks research coverage. The research provides empirical evidence on issues such as the efficiency of the market, information asymmetry, liquidity and price impact of block trades. In first part of the thesis, event study and regression analysis were used to measure the price reaction around earnings announcements and to examine trading activity, information asymmetry and liquidity. In second part the determinants of the price impact of block trades were examined with regard to trade size, market condition and time of the day effects using transaction data. Liquidity and information asymmetry issues of block trades were also studied in this part.

Information plays a significant role in the success of investment strategies. Within a non-advisory context, individual investors elect to build and manage their investment portfolios to avoid the cost of hiring professional advisors. To cope with markets’ uncertainty, individual investors should acquire, understand, and use only relevant information, but that task can be affected by many factors, such as domain knowledge, cognitive and emotional biases, information overload, sources’ credibility, communication channels’ accuracy, and economic costs. Despite an increased interest in examining the financial performance of individual investors in Saudi Arabia, there has been no empirical research of the information behavior of individual investors, or the behavioral biases affecting the investment decision making process in the Saudi stock market (SSM). The purpose of this study was to examine this information behavior within a non-advisory contextualization of their investment decision-making process through the use of an online questionnaire instrument using close-ended questions. The significant intervening variables identified in this study influence the individual investors’ information behavior across many stages of the decision making process. While controlling for gender, education, and income, the optimal information behavior of individual investors in the SSM showed that the Experience factor had the greatest negative effect on the Information Seeking Behavior of individual investors. This was followed by Risk Tolerance, Financial Self-Efficacy, Emotional Biases, Education Level, Formal Information Access, Regret Aversion Bias, and Subjective Financial Knowledge. The Information Acquisition and Information Searching Behavior was influenced by the Acquisition Skepticism, Regret Aversion Bias, Formal Information Access, Overconfidence, and Information Seeking Behavior. Furthermore, the findings indicate that Formal Information Sources have a statistically significant positive effect on the Information Seeking Behavior, and on the Information Acquisition and Information Searching of individual investors in Saudi Arabia. Finally, the Socioeconomic Status (SES) of individual investors in Saudi Arabia was significantly influenced by the employment status, work experience, age, marital status, and income.