In the context of established international economic theory, it is well known that international trade of commodities is effectively trading factors of production such as labour and capital. It follows that if factors of production can be moved internationally, then the need for commodity trade is eased, and trade of commodities and movements of factors of production can be substituted for each other. From this, the conclusion can be reached that factor movement is a substitute for commodity trade. Allowing people to migrate from one country to another country involves migration of labour – the movement of a factor of production. The conclusion that factor flows are a substitute for commodity-trade can be re-stated as international immigration is a substitute for international trade. However, this conclusion does not explain the real world in which both international trade and international immigration have increased over time. Thus, established theory of immigration and trade may not be a reliable policy guide for formulating immigration and/or trade policy. It is the purpose of this thesis to formulate an alternative theory, which more effectively explains the relationship between immigration and trade. For the purpose of distinguishing the impact of immigrants on trade from the impact of other factors on trade, this thesis employs a two-step approach. The first step lays down the theoretical foundations by arguing that immigrants contribute to the economy of the immigrant receiving country in two areas: Firstly, immigrants supply labour to the immigrant receiving country and increase demand for goods and services, hence increase the size of the economy in the immigrant receiving country. Secondly, immigrants bring in intangible social capital and human capital with them (in addition to any tangible capital they bring with them). Both contributions have impacts on international trade. The increasing labour supply could reduce trade, but increasing the market size, and bringing in social capital, in the form of foreign market information, could facilitate trade. The second step employs the latest econometric techniques to test empirically the theory that is developed in the first step, using real world data. The main empirical technique employed in this thesis to analyse the effect of immigration on trade is the gravity model that is estimated using cross-section and time series (panel) data. The case of Australia’s immigration and trade with ten major Asian trade partner countries is selected for the study. The panel cointegration test is conducted to investigate the possible long run equilibrium relation between immigration and trade. The short-run relation between immigration and trade is also examined. This thesis successfully distinguishes between the impact of immigrants on trade and the impact of other influential factors on trade. A strong long run relation between immigration and exports is established. Within a certain range of immigrant intakes, immigrants have positive and significant impact on Australia’s exports to the immigrant home countries. The long run impact is found to be double the strength of the short run impact. However, a long run relation between immigration and imports cannot be clearly established by the panel cointegration test, and the impact of immigrant intake on imports is not strong. Since the long run relation between migrant intake and exports can be established, it is possible that an underlining causation exists. Therefore, a panel causality test on immigration and exports is conducted. The results show that migrant intake “Granger causes” exports, but exports do not Granger cause immigration. This thesis demonstrates that international labour immigration, unlike the movement of other factors of production, is not necessarily a substitute for international trade in the manner described by established international economic theory. In the case of Australia’s immigration and trade with Asian immigrant home countries, immigrants have long run and short run positive impacts on exports, although immigrants do not have a strong impact on Australia’s imports from Asian migrant home countries. Moreover, migrant intake 'causes' exports. The main policy implication of these findings is that Australia can use immigration as a long-term strategy to promote exports to Asian countries.

Measures of progress serve as a crucial link between the economy and the nation’s policymaking establishment. Given that the idea of efficient allocation of resources is such a powerful influence in economics, a progress measure needs to account for most aspects of progress so it can serve as a basis for decisions to improve resource allocation. The use of the term progress encompasses notions of economic and social progress. However, the conceptualisation of progress is fraught with difficulties, misconceptions and contradictions. Primarily, the contested nature of the concept leads to a general lack of agreement on a number of issues, such as adopting an appropriate conceptual framework and methodological approach. Over time, the term progress has adapted to reflect needs. So has its measurement. Recently, the desirability of a narrowly defined economic growth as the panacea for achieving progress has been questioned. Despite containing conceptual limitations, GDP’s use of money and production for its evaluation and demarcation purposes has given it an ease of comparability and desirability that many economists and policymakers yearn for. These limitations however have led researchers to develop alternative progress measures, which although are more difficult to build, possess greater intuitive appeal. Hence, a review is conducted here on the current main progress measurements. The review sets out to identify aspects of income and non-income generating activity as well as to omit factors that generate income but do not contribute to the progress of a nation. Consequently, the relationship between market-based growth and progress is questioned in this thesis; a relationship, which the present research asserts, fails to consider a number of important costs. These costs incorporate social, economic and environmental aspects. However, these costs can be included in progress measures through the abandonment of a single standardised system of accounts and the adoption of a comprehensive interdisciplinary approach. Subsequently, the present research proposes a framework that integrates conceptually distinct theories comprising resources and capabilities, social and institutional arrangements, environmental systems and intellectual capital. This approach is appropriate for measuring multiple and different dimensions of progress. Additionally, the proposed progress index will incorporate the strengths while rectifying the limitations of the reviewed approaches. The progress index is designed to not only incorporate empirical applications, but to detect the meaningful underlying dimensions contributing to national progress to provide guidance in articulating policies for optimal use of resources. Furthermore, the measure is a non-monetary one. The use of market prices to capture aspects of progress tends to inaccurately reflect the real costs and benefits they provide, and ensures that the concerns in question (human, environmental, social, etc.) become part of a narrow debate where the economic bottom line is paramount, and where major impacts are omitted. Additionally, it has the capacity to ignore indirect costs that would lead to undesirable policy initiatives. Challenges such as climate change, health and wellbeing have brought to the fore the growing chasm between the concerns of public policy and those of its citizens. Hence, a need arises for a progress measure to reflect society’s core values. Consequently, the proposed non-monetary progress index employs a weighting technique based on public opinion. That is because market-based evaluations of progress components are inefficient since it is incapable of, amongst other things, accurately reflecting public concern. Hence, the use of a public opinion poll was justified. The proposed index is assessed on two levels: from a single summary point of view and from a multiple dimension view. The aggregation method used to arrive at the single summary statistic is via the Condorcet method, while the dimensional assessment is evaluated via a z-score standardisation technique. Both approaches are appropriate and justifiable. The progress index is applied to three countries that are representative of different clusters. They are Australia (mid-industrialised nation), Mexico (emerging economy), and the US (highly industrialised nation). These selected countries provide an opportunity to highlight any divergences that may exist in their perceived economic strength. The results showed Australia as consistently having the highest levels of progress, closely followed by Mexico. Interestingly, the comparative results of the US and Mexico illustrated that it is possible to achieve high levels of progress without an excessive reliance on high levels of production and income. A sensitivity analysis was then conducted which exposed the progress index to a number of “what-if” scenarios. The main variables were selected under three different approaches: dynamic changes (coefficient of variation), empirical (literature review) and policy based. The sensitivity analysis resulted in altering some of the initial rankings.

Across the extensive body of literature on the subject of developing countries in the most recent period of globalised economic activity three main arguments are evident, firstly, that globalisation has had a positive impact on these countries, secondly, that globalisation has had a negative impact on these countries, and thirdly, that these countries have been by-passed by the most recent period of globalisation. This research seeks to understand what the impact has been on two of the world’s poorest developing countries, Bangladesh and Tanzania. Within the research globalisation is measured by openness, specifically changes in trade and investment flows. Impact is measured through change in development, and in order to do this, a modified Human Development Index is created. Through analysing each of the two countries during the globalisation period and comparing and contrasting the experience with the period prior to globalisation utilising common econometric techniques, this research reaches the conclusion that neither country has been excluded from the most recent period of globalisation. Further, it is concluded that the net impact of globalisation on development in both countries has been neither positive nor negative, thereby suggesting that both positive and negative forces have counterbalanced one another

While the phenomenon of risk is something that people generally try to minimise in their lives, the concept of adventure tourism presents an interesting set of circumstances in that tourists actually seek, or at the very least accept, the risk of sustaining physical injury during the adventure tourism experience. This makes adventure tourism unique when compared to all other types of tourism. In order to explore and add value to this difference, the aims of this study are to determine the importance of experiencing risk in choosing to participate in different adventure tourism activities, to understand the motivations, levels of satisfaction, and post-activity intentions of adventure tourists, so that specific marketing strategies may be developed. A total of 612 people were surveyed both before and after taking part in three different adventure tourism activities (whitewater rafting, bungy jumping, and sailing). It was found that prior experience in the given activity did not present itself as a factor that lowered risk as a motivation, that no motivational differences existed between nationalities, and that varying levels of inferred satisfaction are present. Marketing strategies for each of the activities, based on multivariate motivations, are recommended.

The paper is on Malaysia, an emerging market, which had enjoyed strong economic activity with growth of 8-9% p.a. for a decade before the Asian financial crisis hit the region in 1997. The local currencies in the region came under pressure as capital took flight from the region. Credit and trade receivables became difficult. Assets and share values plunged dramatically as demand fell. A number of companies which had expanded rapidly through acquisitions and diversification with heavy borrowings in the past became insolvent. Investors and other stakeholders lost money with the failure of the companies. Many blamed the inadequate financial information and poor corporate governance as agency issues for their loss. Using the data of companies with poor earnings that were subsequently placed on the KLSE PN4 list, the study confirmed previous studies that earnings affect share prices. The share prices fell with negative earnings and remained low with declining earnings up to the PN4 announcements in 2001. Earnings management was evidenced by the use of the statistical model and the high standard deviation. There was, however, a marked change in 2005. Good management practices and transparency in financial information promotes growth.

This study develops a model to forecast inbound tourism to Japan, using a combination of artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic and compares the performance of this forecasting model with forecasts from other quantitative forecasting methods namely, the multi-layer perceptron neural network model, the error correction model, the basic structural model, the autoregressive integrated moving average model and the naive model. Japan was chosen as the country of study mainly due to the availability of reliable tourism data, and also because it is a popular travel destination for both business and pleasure. Visitor arrivals from the 10 most popular tourist source countries to Japan, and total arrivals from all countries were used to incorporate a fairly wide variety of data patterns in the testing process. This research has established that neuro-fuzzy models can be used effectively in tourism forecasting, having made adequate comparisons with other time series and econometric models using real data. This research takes tourism forecasting a major leap forward to an entirely new approach in time series pedagogy. As previous tourism studies have not used hybrid combinations of neural and fuzzy logic in tourism forecasting this research has only touched the surface of a field that has immense potential not only in tourism forecasting but also in financial time series analysis, market research and business analysis.

The constant increase in the number of independent travellers has prompted the need for accurate and reliable information to plan holidays and to evaluate on-site activities. In organising and undertaking independent tours, travellers face the challenge of searching useful information about the destinations they are visiting. Specifically, potential tourists have a need for information with the purpose of reducing risks associated with the consumption of tourism services. It is clear that information acquisition is necessary both for selecting a destination and for on-site decisions. However, values, beliefs and attitudes influence the levels and types of information needed, and therefore may impact on the levels and types of information sought. The purpose of this research is to investigate the need for information by independent travellers. This research has examined on-site information needs and search with a specific focus on travel guidebooks. A cross cultural approach has been taken and travellers from Japan, Korea, China, and North America have been surveyed. This research is quantitative in nature and the data have been analysed through the use of factor analysis and structural equation modelling. This research has demonstrated that travel guidebooks are an aid in reducing risks associated with travelling independently, and they play a positive role in the recent tourism trend of a shift away from mass tourism towards independent tourism. This research has also demonstrated that cultural background is a determinant in the types of information searched and in the use of travel guidebooks while travelling. This research has provided a contribution to current theories of consumer behaviour, with specific focus on independent tourism and information needs. This study also enables unbiased discussion on the possible directions for travel guidebook publishers to be successful in the Asian market.

Since the mid-1980s, trade liberalisation has encouraged the growth of Australia’s international trade. The Australian wine industry has been successful in the world wine market, achieving a significant growth in production and export sales since the 1990s. In this context, this thesis attempts to provide a comprehensive analysis of the patterns and determinants of Australia’s international trade in wines for the period 1980-2004. The general aim of this thesis is to analyse the Australian wine industry based on the economic theories of inter-industry trade and intra-industry trade and to model wine export and import relationships. Indicators of Australia’s trade performance in wines in terms of trade specialisation index, export propensity, import penetration, and the ratio of exports to imports indicate that Australia has become a net-exporter and has experienced a specialisation in wine trade since 1987. This signifies a high degree of international trade competitiveness in Australia’s wines. The results of Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage index and Vollrath’s revealed competitive advantage indexes suggest that, among the wine producing countries, Australia has a comparative advantage and competitive advantage in wines. The significant year was 1987 when Australia first experienced comparative and competitive advantage. The important explanation for this turning point is Australia’s trade liberalisation policy in the mid-1980s. Based on econometric concepts of unit root and cointegration, the unrestricted error correction model is applied to analyse the determinants of Australia’s wine exports and imports separately in the models of export supply, export demand, and import demand. The results suggest that the relative price of wine exports and the long-run production capacity have had a positive influence on the supply of wine exports. However, Australia’s wine exports are not very responsive to changes in export price. Although the trade liberalisation shows a positive impact on the supply of wine exports, it is not statistically significant. Foreign demand for Australia’s wine exports has had a significant negative response to changes in the relative price of exports and a significant positive response to the depreciation of the Australian dollar in both the short run and long run. A low value of the price elasticity of foreign demand may reveal that Australia has some market power in relation to its exports of differentiated or unique wines to the world market. The demand for wine imports by Australia is inelastic with respect to the relative price of wine imports but more elastic to Australia’s income. The standard Grubel-Lloyd index is used to examine the extent of intra-industry trade of Australia and major world-wine trading countries. The index is also applied to Australia’s bilateral intra-industry trade in wines with its major trading countries. To measure the growth of intra-industry trade for Australia’s wines, the concept of marginal intra-industry trade is applied, together with Menon-Dixon’s approach. The results indicate that the world wine industry is more likely to be characterised by inter-industry trade which is based on the significance of comparative advantage and factor endowments rather than intra-industry trade. Australia has a relatively small intra-industry trade in wines. This is due to the fact that the values of Australia’s wine exports are very much higher than those of its imports. The extent of bilateral intra-industry trade in wines between Australia and its major trading partners is also small. However, the levels of bilateral intra-industry trade between Australia and New Zealand are relatively high. The growth of intra-industry trade in wines between Australia and most of the major wine-producing countries is due to the contributions of export growth to the growth in intra-industry trade, which imply that Australia is a net importer of wines from these countries. On the other hand, the percentage growth of intra-industry trade in wines between Australia and Germany, the U.S., the U.K., New Zealand, Canada, and Japan is due to the contributions of import growth to the growth in intra-industry trade, which imply that Australia is a net exporter of wines to these countries. The extent of Australia’s intra-industry trade with the rest of the world will be higher when the industry gains more scale economies. Contrary to the theoretical suggestions, product differentiations, degree of trade openness, and exchange rate have had negative relationships with Australia’s intra-industry trade in wines. With regard to Australia’s bilateral intra-industry trade with its nine major wine trading partners (France, Italy, Spain, Germany, the U.S., South Africa, New Zealand, the U.K. and Japan), the intensity of intra-industry trade in wines is statistically and positively related to the ratio of capital to labour, trade openness, common culture, and the regional trade arrangements. The policy implications of the analysis of the determinants of Australia’s intra-industry trade in wines are that the government policy should be oriented towards increases in the production capacity of the Australian wine industry in order to achieve higher economies of scale. In addition, the Australian government should promote regional economic integration and trade liberalisation involving wine trade between close and economically similar economies.