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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Modelagem do comportamento forward-looking dos Ãndices setoriais no Brasil / Modeling of forward-looking sectoral indices behavior in Brazil

Glaylson Rodrigues Sampaio 12 March 2015 (has links)
nÃo hà / Os comovimentos entre os preÃos de ativos sugerem a atuaÃÃo de influÃncias exÃgenas. No entanto, nÃo hà consenso na literatura sobre quais fatores econÃmicos sÃo determinantes. Neste estudo, investiga-se a sensibilidade dos Ãndices setoriais BM&FBOVESPA a mudanÃas nas expectativas dos participantes do mercado para as variÃveis econÃmicas constantes do RelatÃrio Focus. CompÃem a amostra os sete Ãndices setoriais com sÃrie completa para o perÃodo de janeiro de 2009 a junho de 2014, compreendendo 286 observaÃÃes semanais. A abordagem utilizada para a modelagem da mÃdia das sÃries dos Ãndices fundamenta-se na teoria de precificaÃÃo multifatorial, utilizando-se as variÃveis forward-looking acompanhadas nesse relatÃrio como candidatas a fatores. Dada a presenÃa de heterocedasticidade condicional nas sÃries de retornos dos Ãndices setoriais, propÃe-se o arcabouÃo GARCH para modelagem da volatilidade. Os resultados sugerem que algumas variÃveis de expectativas sÃo significativas para explicaÃÃo das variaÃÃes dos Ãndices setoriais brasileiros e que os modelos multifatoriais propostos podem gerar ganhos de previsÃo, evidenciados pela reduÃÃo do erro quadrÃtico mÃdio das projeÃÃes de retorno. / The co-movements among asset prices suggest the action of exogenous influences, however, there is no consensus in the literature about which economic factors are responsible. This study investigates the sensitivity of the sector indexes BM&FBOVESPA to changes in expectations of market participants to the constant economic variables Focus Report. Make up the sample the seven sectoral indexes with complete series for the period January 2009 to June 2014, comprising 286 weekly observations. The approach used for the average modeling of indexes of series is based on multifactor pricing theory, using the forward-looking variables accompanied this report as candidates for factors. Given the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity in the sector indexes return series, it is proposed to GARCH framework for modeling the volatility. The results suggest that some expectations variables are significant for explanation of variations in Brazilian industry indices and the proposed multifactor models of returns can generate prediction gains evidenced by reduced of mean squared error of the return predictions.

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