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Rip channels, megacusps, and shoreline change measurements and modeling /Orzech, Mark D. January 2010 (has links) (PDF)
Dissertation (Ph.D. in Physical Oceanography)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2010. / Dissertation supervisor: Thornton, Edward B. "June 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on July 16, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Rip channels, megacusps, alongshore sediment transport, morphodynamics, XBeach, surf-zone video, correlations, infragravity, VLF. Includes bibliographical references (p. 103-108). Also available in print.
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Improving Turbidity-Based Estimates of Suspended Sediment Concentrations and LoadsJastram, John Dietrich 12 June 2007 (has links)
As the impacts of human activities increase sediment transport by aquatic systems the need to accurately quantify this transport becomes paramount. Turbidity is recognized as an effective tool for monitoring suspended sediments in aquatic systems, and with recent technological advances turbidity can be measured in-situ remotely, continuously, and at much finer temporal scales than was previously possible. Although turbidity provides an improved method for estimation of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), compared to traditional discharge-based methods, there is still significant variability in turbidity-based SSC estimates and in sediment loadings calculated from those estimates. The purpose of this study was to improve the turbidity-based estimation of SSC. Working at two monitoring sites on the Roanoke River in southwestern Virginia, stage, turbidity, and other water-quality parameters and were monitored with in-situ instrumentation, suspended sediments were sampled manually during elevated turbidity events; those samples were analyzed for SSC and for physical properties; rainfall was quantified by geologic source area. The study identified physical properties of the suspended-sediment samples that contribute to SSC-estimation variance and hydrologic variables that contribute to variance in those physical properties. Results indicated that the inclusion of any of the measured physical properties, which included grain-size distributions, specific surface-area, and organic carbon, in turbidity-based SSC estimation models reduces unexplained variance. Further, the use of hydrologic variables, which were measured remotely and on the same temporal scale as turbidity, to represent these physical properties, resulted in a model which was equally as capable of predicting SSC. A square-root transformed turbidity-based SSC estimation model developed for the Roanoke River at Route 117 monitoring station, which included a water level variable, provided 63% less unexplained variance in SSC estimations and 50% narrower 95% prediction intervals for an annual loading estimate, when compared to a simple linear regression using a logarithmic transformation of the response and regressor (turbidity). Unexplained variance and prediction interval width were also reduced using this approach at a second monitoring site, Roanoke River at Thirteenth Street Bridge; the log-based transformation of SSC and regressors was found to be most appropriate at this monitoring station. Furthermore, this study demonstrated the potential for a single model, generated from a pooled set of data from the two monitoring sites, to estimate SSC with less variance than a model generated only from data collected at this single site. When applied at suitable locations, the use of this pooled model approach could provide many benefits to monitoring programs, such as developing SSC-estimation models for multiple sites which individually do not have enough data to generate a robust model or extending the model to monitoring sites between those for which the model was developed and significantly reducing sampling costs for intensive monitoring programs. / Master of Science
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INVESTIGATION OF SURFACE FINE GRAINED LAMINAE, STREAMBED, AND STREAMBANK PROCESSES USING A WATERSHED SCALE HYDROLOGIC AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MODELRusso, Joseph Paul 01 January 2009 (has links)
Sediment transport at the watershed scale in the Bluegrass Region of Kentucky is dominated by surface fine grained laminae, streambed, and streambank erosion; high instream sediment storage; and surface erosion processes. All these processes can be impacted by agricultural, urban, and suburban land-uses as well as hydrologic forcing. Understanding sediment transport processes at the watershed scale is a need for budgeting and controlling sediment pollution, and watershed modeling enables investigation of the cumulative effect of sediment processes and the parameters controlling these processes upon the entire sediment budget for a watershed. Sediment transport is being modeled by coupling the hydrologic model Hydrologic Simulations Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) with an in-house conceptually based hydraulic and sediment transport model. The total yield at the watershed outlet as well as the source fractions from surface fine grained lamina, streambed, and streambank sources; deposition; and biological generation within the streambed are predicted with the sediment transport model. Urbanization scenarios are then run on the calibrated model so as to predict the sediment budget for the South Elkhorn watershed for present and future conditions.
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SEDIMENT ORGANIC CARBON FATE AND TRANSPORT IN A FLUVIOKARST WATERSHED IN THE BLUEGRASS REGIONHusic, Admin 01 January 2015 (has links)
Mature karst topography is well recognized within the hydrology and geology communities to include subterranean fluid pathways that act as turbulent conduits conveying fluid from surface stream sinks called swallets to sources called springs. However, we find that little knowledge has been reported with regards to the transport and fate of terrestrially-derived sediment organic carbon (SOC) within karst watersheds. This study investigated the hypothesis that karst pathways could act as biologically active conveyors of SOC that temporarily store sediment, turnover carbon at higher rates than otherwise considered, and recharge depleted SOC back to the surface stream within the fluvial system. Mixed research methods were applied within a mature karst network. Methods included high resolution measurements of water and sediment characteristics of surface streams, carbon and stable carbon isotope measurements of transported sediment, and numerical modeling of water and sediment pathways. The mixing of sediment during net zero deposition and erosion was investigated in this study using a parameter calibrated to SOC data. Results of this study showed that heterotrophic bacteria in the subsurface conduit oxidized 0.05 tCkm-2y-1 resulting from the temporary storage of terrestrial carbon in the karst conduit. The subsurface conduit transports 0.15 tCkm-2y-1 out of the fluviokarst watershed.
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PARTICULATE ORGANIC CARBON FATE AND TRANSPORT IN A LOWLAND, TEMPERATE WATERSHEDFord, William Isaac, III 01 January 2011 (has links)
Small lowland agricultural systems promote conditions where benthic biological communities can thrive. These biogeochemical processes have significant impacts on terrestrial ecosystem processes including POC flux and fate, nutrient balances, water quality budges, and aquatic biological functioning. Limited information is available on coupled biological and hydrologic processes in fluvial systems. This study investigates the mixture of biological and hydrologic processes in the benthic layer in order to understand POC cycling in the South Elkhorn system. Further, comprehensive modeling of POC flux in lowland systems has not been performed previously and the behavior of potentially controlling variables, such as hydrologic forcing and seasonal temperature regimes, is not well understood. Conceptual hydraulic and sediment transport models were simulated for the South Elkhorn. Based on data and model results it was concluded that during a hydrologic event, upland and bank sources produce high variability of POC sources. Likewise, over time, the density of hydrologic events influenced accrual of benthic algal biomass in the POC pool. Environmental variables such as temperature and light availability drove seasonal variations of POC in the streambed. Based on model estimates, around 0.29 metric tCkm-2yr-1 of POC is flushed from the system annually with 13 % coming from autochthonous algae.
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INFLUENCE OF LONG WAVES AND WAVE GROUPS ON SWASH ZONE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND CROSS-SHORE BEACH PROFILE EVOLUTIONSon Kim Pham Unknown Date (has links)
There are only a few detailed measurements of the cross-shore variation in the net sediment transport and beach evolution for single or multiple swash events, and no data showing the influence of long waves and wave groups on swash zone morphology. Novel laboratory experiments and numerical modeling have been performed to study the influence of long waves and bichromatic wave groups on sediment transport and beach morphodynamics in the swash zone. Due to complex processes, difficulties in measuring, and very significant difficulties in isolating the morphodynamic processes induced by long waves and wave groups on natural beaches, a laboratory study was designed to measure in very high detail the bathymetric evolution of model sand beaches under monochromatic waves, long wave and short wave composites (free long waves), and bichromatic wave groups (forced long waves). Net sediment transport, Q(x), and beach morphology changes under the monochromatic waves were analyzed and compared to conditions with and without the free long waves, and then compared with the bichromatic wave groups. A range of wave conditions, e.g., high energy, moderate energy, and low energy waves, were used to obtain beach evolution ranging from accretionary to erosive, and including intermediate beach states. Hydrodynamics parameters, e.g., instantaneous water depths, wave amplitudes, run-up and rundown, were also measured to study and test a sediment transport model for the swash zone, based on modifying the energetic-bedload based sediment transport equations with suspended sediment. The experimental data clearly demonstrate that for the monochromatic wave conditions, beach evolution develops erosion for high steepness waves and accretion for lower steepness waves. The model beach profile evolutions are similar to natural beaches, and form and develop bars and berms over time. Adding a free long wave to the short wave in the composite wave results in changes to the overall trend of erosion/accretion of the beach profile, but the net transport pattern does not change significantly. The short wave strongly dominates beach behavior and the net transport rate, instead of the free long wave in the composite wave. The free long wave, however, carries more water and sediment onshore, leading to an increase in shoreline motion and wave run-up further landward. The long wave influences the structure and position of the swash bar/berm, which generally tends to move onshore and forms a larger swash bar/berm for higher long wave amplitudes. The free long wave also increases overall onshore sediment transport, and reduces offshore transport for erosive conditions. The long wave tends to protect the beach face and enhances onshore transport for accretive conditions, especially in the swash zone. In contrast, for bichromatic wave groups having the same mean energy flux as their corresponding monochromatic wave, the influence on sediment transports is generally offshore in both the surf and swash zone instead of onshore. The swash berm is, however, formed further landward compared with the berm of the corresponding monochromatic wave. The sediment transport patterns (erosion or accretion) generated by the bichromatic wave group or corresponding monochromatic wave are similar, but differ in magnitude. The numerical model, starting in the inner surf zone to reduce the effect of poor breaker description in the non-linear shallow water equations, can produce a good match between observed data and the modeled hydrodynamics parameters in the SZ. The sediment transport model shows the important role of suspended sediment in the swash zone. In contrast with the observed data, energetic-based bed-load models predict offshore sediment transport for most wave conditions because of negative skewness. The modified sediment transport model, with added suspended sediment terms and optimized coefficients, produces a good match between model results and observed data for each wave condition, especially for low frequency monochromatic waves. The optimized coefficient set corresponding to particular monochromatic wave conditions can be used to predict the net sediment transport quite well for some composite wave conditions. Overall, the same optimized coefficient sets can be applied to predict the correct overall trend of net transport for most composite wave conditions. However, the predicted net transport for the bichromatic wave groups does not match well with the overall net transport patterns. There is no set of single transport coefficients that can be used to predict sediment transport for all wave conditions. This suggests that the present sediment transport models cannot predict evolution correctly, even for conditions which represent only perturbation from those for which they were calibrated.
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INFLUENCE OF LONG WAVES AND WAVE GROUPS ON SWASH ZONE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND CROSS-SHORE BEACH PROFILE EVOLUTIONSon Kim Pham Unknown Date (has links)
There are only a few detailed measurements of the cross-shore variation in the net sediment transport and beach evolution for single or multiple swash events, and no data showing the influence of long waves and wave groups on swash zone morphology. Novel laboratory experiments and numerical modeling have been performed to study the influence of long waves and bichromatic wave groups on sediment transport and beach morphodynamics in the swash zone. Due to complex processes, difficulties in measuring, and very significant difficulties in isolating the morphodynamic processes induced by long waves and wave groups on natural beaches, a laboratory study was designed to measure in very high detail the bathymetric evolution of model sand beaches under monochromatic waves, long wave and short wave composites (free long waves), and bichromatic wave groups (forced long waves). Net sediment transport, Q(x), and beach morphology changes under the monochromatic waves were analyzed and compared to conditions with and without the free long waves, and then compared with the bichromatic wave groups. A range of wave conditions, e.g., high energy, moderate energy, and low energy waves, were used to obtain beach evolution ranging from accretionary to erosive, and including intermediate beach states. Hydrodynamics parameters, e.g., instantaneous water depths, wave amplitudes, run-up and rundown, were also measured to study and test a sediment transport model for the swash zone, based on modifying the energetic-bedload based sediment transport equations with suspended sediment. The experimental data clearly demonstrate that for the monochromatic wave conditions, beach evolution develops erosion for high steepness waves and accretion for lower steepness waves. The model beach profile evolutions are similar to natural beaches, and form and develop bars and berms over time. Adding a free long wave to the short wave in the composite wave results in changes to the overall trend of erosion/accretion of the beach profile, but the net transport pattern does not change significantly. The short wave strongly dominates beach behavior and the net transport rate, instead of the free long wave in the composite wave. The free long wave, however, carries more water and sediment onshore, leading to an increase in shoreline motion and wave run-up further landward. The long wave influences the structure and position of the swash bar/berm, which generally tends to move onshore and forms a larger swash bar/berm for higher long wave amplitudes. The free long wave also increases overall onshore sediment transport, and reduces offshore transport for erosive conditions. The long wave tends to protect the beach face and enhances onshore transport for accretive conditions, especially in the swash zone. In contrast, for bichromatic wave groups having the same mean energy flux as their corresponding monochromatic wave, the influence on sediment transports is generally offshore in both the surf and swash zone instead of onshore. The swash berm is, however, formed further landward compared with the berm of the corresponding monochromatic wave. The sediment transport patterns (erosion or accretion) generated by the bichromatic wave group or corresponding monochromatic wave are similar, but differ in magnitude. The numerical model, starting in the inner surf zone to reduce the effect of poor breaker description in the non-linear shallow water equations, can produce a good match between observed data and the modeled hydrodynamics parameters in the SZ. The sediment transport model shows the important role of suspended sediment in the swash zone. In contrast with the observed data, energetic-based bed-load models predict offshore sediment transport for most wave conditions because of negative skewness. The modified sediment transport model, with added suspended sediment terms and optimized coefficients, produces a good match between model results and observed data for each wave condition, especially for low frequency monochromatic waves. The optimized coefficient set corresponding to particular monochromatic wave conditions can be used to predict the net sediment transport quite well for some composite wave conditions. Overall, the same optimized coefficient sets can be applied to predict the correct overall trend of net transport for most composite wave conditions. However, the predicted net transport for the bichromatic wave groups does not match well with the overall net transport patterns. There is no set of single transport coefficients that can be used to predict sediment transport for all wave conditions. This suggests that the present sediment transport models cannot predict evolution correctly, even for conditions which represent only perturbation from those for which they were calibrated.
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Experiments on the Transformation of Mud Flocs in Turbulent SuspensionsTran, Duc Anh 21 June 2018 (has links)
This dissertation aims to better understand how floc aggregate characteristics and behaviors are modified under different local conditions and how such alterations impact the floc settling velocity, which is one of the most crucial parameters influencing sediment transport modeling.
A series of laboratory experiments were conducted to examine the impact of suspended sediment concentration, mixes of clay and silt, and resuspension process to equilibrium floc size and floc settling velocity. In order to observe floc size evolution, a new floc imaging acquisition was first developed. This new method allows flocs in suspended sediment concentration up to C = 400 mg/L can be imaged non intrusively. This new method was applied in all three individual studies, which are composed of this dissertation.
The first chapter investigates the behaviors of flocs under constant and decay suspended sediment concentrations within a steady turbulent suspension. In the constant-concentration set of experiments, floc size time series were measured for 12 h for each of the concentration C = 15, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300, and 400 mg/L. In the decay-concentration experiments, clear water was introduced to the mixing tank, simultaneously the suspension was drained out of the mixing tank at the same rate to make the suspended sediment concentration reduce while the turbulent shear was remained unchanged. The data shows that the equilibrium floc size is a weak, positive function of concentration. For example, in order to increase 20% of floc size (approximate 22 um) the concentration needs to be increased by 700% (going from 50 to 400 mg/L). The data also illustrates that during the decrease of concentration from C = 400 to 50 mg/L, the floc size responses to the changes of concentration in the order of 10 min or less.
The second chapter examines how silt particles and clay aggregates interact in a turbulent suspension. Floc sizes and settling velocity of three different suspensions, i.e., pure clay, pure silt, and a mixture of clay and silt, were monitored. The floc size data show that the presence of silt particles does not have significant impacts on clay aggregate sizes. Silt particles, however, get bound up within floc aggregates, which in turn increase the settling velocity of the floc by at least 50%.
The third chapter examines whether any changes in floc properties during the deposition and resuspension processes. The floc sizes and shapes in a set of experiments with different consolidation times, concentrations, and shear patterns were measured. The conditions at which the flocs deposited or resuspended were maintained the same. The data reveal that floc size and shape of freshly deposited and after resuspended are unchanged. The erosion rate and concentration is a function of consolidation time and the applied shear stress during the deposition phase. Hence, there is a small reduction in resuspended concentration resulting in a slight decrease in resuspension floc size since floc size is also a function of concentration. / Ph. D. / Sediment transport is a narrative poem from mother nature telling us about the evolution of ancient and modern rivers, deltas, and estuaries. For thousands of years, mankind has been examining the coarser part of the poem, the gravel and sand. The finer part, the mud, has not been systematically investigated until the last 60 years. The key difference between sand and mud is the capability of mud to aggregate and form flocs which have sizes, densities, and shapes that are vastly different from the original constitutive particles. This flocculation process adds a layer of dynamics to the erosion, deposition, and transport of mud that is not present in the transport of sand.
Therefore, the primary motivations for this dissertation are 1) to better understand the behavior of floc size under different conditions, e.g., in the estuaries, and 2) to provide high-quality data of floc characteristics and size evolution for model development, testing, and calibration purposes. Laboratory studies are conducted to measure the floc size and in some cases settling velocity, as a function of time under different turbulent, concentration, and sediment mixture. The findings in this dissertation help to fill the gaps of knowledge in cohesive sediment transport processes. This dissertation also suggests how floc behaviors should be accounted for under different conditions. Such information is valuable for projects such as management of sediment supplies, mitigation of land loss, restoration, and land-building diversions, e.g., on the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers.
Data associated with this dissertation are also available on GitHub under https://github.com/FluidSedDynamics.
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Uso de modelagem de transporte de sedimentos e técnicas de hidrologia estatística para redução de incertezas nos estudos de assoreamento de reservatórios: estudo de caso do reservatório da PCH Mogi-Guaçu - SP / Sediment transport modeling and statistic hydrologic techniques applied to uncertainty reduction in reservoir sedimentation studies: case of study Mogi-Guaçu SHP ReservoirEstigoni, Marcus Vinícius 09 December 2016 (has links)
A previsão hidrológica é um processo estocástico dependente de fatores aleatórios, e, por si só, possui incertezas, porém, como a descarga sólida de um rio se correlaciona com a vazão por uma relação do tipo potência, na previsão do assoreamento de reservatório estas incertezas são maximizadas. Métodos empíricos e semi-empíricos de previsão de assoreamento negligenciam importantes fenômenos hidráulicos que regem o comportamento instantâneo do transporte de sedimentos. Incertezas e erros na estimativa da vida útil de reservatórios na fase de estudo de viabilidade é prejudicial ao processo decisório de qual reservatório e/ou se o reservatório deve ser construído. A pesquisa identificou os mecanismos de como a variabilidade hidrológica influencia a previsão do assoreamento de reservatórios por meio de casos idealizados e validação das hipóteses em estudo de caso, também foi proposto um fluxograma de atividades para a previsão de assoreamento capaz de reduzir incertezas inerentes a estes estudos, pautado na modelagem hidrodinâmica de transporte de sedimentos, ferramentas de hidrologia estatística e uso de múltiplos cenários, o Procedimento Metodológico para Redução de Incertezas na Previsão do Assoreamento de Reservatórios (PRIPAR - NH). Identificou-se que: séries de vazões com maior variabilidade resultam em um aporte de sedimento maior quando comparado à somatório de seu valor médio, e quanto maior a variabilidade maior o aporte resultante; séries com mesmo aporte de sedimentos e maior parte nos primeiros anos do reservatório resultam em assoreamento mais rápido devido a relativa alta Eficiência de Retenção de sedimentos nos primeiros anos e sua redução com a evolução do assoreamento; e, comprovou-se que modelos estocásticos para geração de séries sintéticas produzirão séries ligeiramente diferentes caso aplicados mais de uma vez, mesmo quando utilizando parâmetros de calibração iguais, causando significativa diferença na previsão do assoreamento. O PRIPAR - NH foi aplicado no estudo de caso do reservatório da PCH Mogi-Guaçu. Os 50 cenários analisados suportam a hipótese, apresentando amplitude de 12,4% do volume assoreado calculado, com média de 48,1% de seu volume em 50 anos. / The hydrologic forecast is a stochastic process that relays on a random factor. It present uncertainties by itself, but when used for reservoir sedimentation studies this uncertain are maximized due the fact that sediment load relates with flow discharge by a power type function. Empirical and semi-empirical methods for reservoir sedimentation forecast, widely used in Brazil, neglects important hydraulic phenomena that governs the instantaneous sediment transport behavior. Uncertainties and errors in reservoirs useful life estimation during feasibility studies are detrimental for the process of choosing which reservoir should be build and/or if the reservoir should be build. This study identified how hydrologic forecast and flow variability affects reservoir sedimentation studies, by means of hypothetical ideal scenarios and validations of the hypothesis in a study case. It also proposed a process flowchart for reservoir sedimentation studies able reduces uncertainty by the use of sediment transport modelling, statistical tools applied in hydrology and multiple scenarios, the PRIPAR-NH. It was identified that: as the degree of variability in flow data series increases, sediment loads also increase in comparison with the value calculated by the average flow; for the same sediment income, data series that presents most part of the sediment loads in the early years of the reservoir operation presents a faster sedimentation, it is explained by the fact the sediment Trap Efficiency reduces along the time due the reservoir storage capacity loss; and, it was proved that stochastic model will produce different data series if applied more than once, even when using the same calibration parameters, and it affects significantly the sedimentation forecast results. The PRIPAR-NH was applied to assess the sedimentation in Mogi-Guaçu Hydropower reservoir. The 50 analyzed scenarios support the study main hypotheses, presenting results for sedimentation volume ranging in 12.4%. The average sedimentation volume found was 48.1% for a 50 years scenario.
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Uso de modelagem de transporte de sedimentos e técnicas de hidrologia estatística para redução de incertezas nos estudos de assoreamento de reservatórios: estudo de caso do reservatório da PCH Mogi-Guaçu - SP / Sediment transport modeling and statistic hydrologic techniques applied to uncertainty reduction in reservoir sedimentation studies: case of study Mogi-Guaçu SHP ReservoirMarcus Vinícius Estigoni 09 December 2016 (has links)
A previsão hidrológica é um processo estocástico dependente de fatores aleatórios, e, por si só, possui incertezas, porém, como a descarga sólida de um rio se correlaciona com a vazão por uma relação do tipo potência, na previsão do assoreamento de reservatório estas incertezas são maximizadas. Métodos empíricos e semi-empíricos de previsão de assoreamento negligenciam importantes fenômenos hidráulicos que regem o comportamento instantâneo do transporte de sedimentos. Incertezas e erros na estimativa da vida útil de reservatórios na fase de estudo de viabilidade é prejudicial ao processo decisório de qual reservatório e/ou se o reservatório deve ser construído. A pesquisa identificou os mecanismos de como a variabilidade hidrológica influencia a previsão do assoreamento de reservatórios por meio de casos idealizados e validação das hipóteses em estudo de caso, também foi proposto um fluxograma de atividades para a previsão de assoreamento capaz de reduzir incertezas inerentes a estes estudos, pautado na modelagem hidrodinâmica de transporte de sedimentos, ferramentas de hidrologia estatística e uso de múltiplos cenários, o Procedimento Metodológico para Redução de Incertezas na Previsão do Assoreamento de Reservatórios (PRIPAR - NH). Identificou-se que: séries de vazões com maior variabilidade resultam em um aporte de sedimento maior quando comparado à somatório de seu valor médio, e quanto maior a variabilidade maior o aporte resultante; séries com mesmo aporte de sedimentos e maior parte nos primeiros anos do reservatório resultam em assoreamento mais rápido devido a relativa alta Eficiência de Retenção de sedimentos nos primeiros anos e sua redução com a evolução do assoreamento; e, comprovou-se que modelos estocásticos para geração de séries sintéticas produzirão séries ligeiramente diferentes caso aplicados mais de uma vez, mesmo quando utilizando parâmetros de calibração iguais, causando significativa diferença na previsão do assoreamento. O PRIPAR - NH foi aplicado no estudo de caso do reservatório da PCH Mogi-Guaçu. Os 50 cenários analisados suportam a hipótese, apresentando amplitude de 12,4% do volume assoreado calculado, com média de 48,1% de seu volume em 50 anos. / The hydrologic forecast is a stochastic process that relays on a random factor. It present uncertainties by itself, but when used for reservoir sedimentation studies this uncertain are maximized due the fact that sediment load relates with flow discharge by a power type function. Empirical and semi-empirical methods for reservoir sedimentation forecast, widely used in Brazil, neglects important hydraulic phenomena that governs the instantaneous sediment transport behavior. Uncertainties and errors in reservoirs useful life estimation during feasibility studies are detrimental for the process of choosing which reservoir should be build and/or if the reservoir should be build. This study identified how hydrologic forecast and flow variability affects reservoir sedimentation studies, by means of hypothetical ideal scenarios and validations of the hypothesis in a study case. It also proposed a process flowchart for reservoir sedimentation studies able reduces uncertainty by the use of sediment transport modelling, statistical tools applied in hydrology and multiple scenarios, the PRIPAR-NH. It was identified that: as the degree of variability in flow data series increases, sediment loads also increase in comparison with the value calculated by the average flow; for the same sediment income, data series that presents most part of the sediment loads in the early years of the reservoir operation presents a faster sedimentation, it is explained by the fact the sediment Trap Efficiency reduces along the time due the reservoir storage capacity loss; and, it was proved that stochastic model will produce different data series if applied more than once, even when using the same calibration parameters, and it affects significantly the sedimentation forecast results. The PRIPAR-NH was applied to assess the sedimentation in Mogi-Guaçu Hydropower reservoir. The 50 analyzed scenarios support the study main hypotheses, presenting results for sedimentation volume ranging in 12.4%. The average sedimentation volume found was 48.1% for a 50 years scenario.
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