Face à un constat de déconnexion entre la valorisation de trois types d’actifs (deux actifs financiers et un actif immobilier) et les fondamentaux économiques dans la période récente, marquée par l’occurrence de crises économiques et financières sévères, cette thèse vise à mettre en évidence le rôle des anticipations des agents économiques.Premièrement, cette thèse souligne que le rôle des anticipations dans la récente crise de dette en zone euro est lié à l’existence de complémentarités stratégiques dans les décisions des agents économiques. Dans cette perspective, l’apport de cette thèse est de s’intéresser à un fait central et pourtant passé relativement inaperçu : la hausse de la part de dette détenue par les résidents dans les économies les plus fragiles de la zone euro à partir de la fin 2008. Nous montrons que si les chocs d’endettement public ont bien un effet positifs ur le biais domestique dans la détention de dette publique, les chocs d’anticipations pessimistes peuvent également jouer un rôle significatif pour expliquer les variations du biais domestique. Deuxièmement, cette thèse montre que la volatilité excessive du prix de certains actifs relativement aux fondamentaux peut être expliquée dans le cadre de modèles standards dès lors que l’on relâche l’hypothèse d’anticipations rationnelles et que l’on suppose que les agents estiment les paramètres des lois gouvernant la dynamique des fondamentaux, à la façon d’économètres. Sous cette hypothèse, un modèle de prix d’actifs standard permet d’expliquer l’épisode de forte valorisation du prix des actions américaines au début des années 2000, suivi par un fort effondrement des cours à partir de 2008 et jusqu’à mi-2009.Enfin, nous montrons que modéliser un processus d’apprentissage bayésien sur le prix des actifs immobiliers dans le cadre d’un modèle DSGE avec des frictions de crédit permet d’expliquer simultanément la forte volatilité des prix immobiliers - qui a joué un rôle central dans la crise des subprimes - et celle de variables caractérisant le cycle des affaires aux Etats-Unis sur la période 1985-2015. / In view of the disconnect between the pricing of three types of assets (two types of financial assets and real-estate assets) and economic fundamentals in the recent period ofsevere economic and financial crises, this thesis aims at highlighting the role of economicagents’ expectations.First, this thesis emphasizes that the role of expectations in the recent Eurozonesovereign debt crisis relates to strategic complementarities in agents’ decisions. In thisrespect, this thesis focuses on one major but mostly unnoticed fact: the share of governmentdebt held by the resident sector increased beginning at the end of 2008 in the mostfragile economies of the zone. We show that – whereas public debt shocks positively affectthe home bias in sovereign debt – pessimistic expectation shocks can also significantlyexplain variations in home bias.Second, this thesis shows that excess volatility in stock and in house prices relativeto fundamentals can be accounted for by standard models when the rational expectationshypothesis is relaxed and when agents are assumed to estimate the parameters of the lawsof motion driving the dynamics of economic fundamentals – that is, as econometricians.Under this assumption, a standard asset pricing model can explain the persistently highvaluation in US stock prices in the early 2000s followed by their dramatic bust by 2009.Finally, we show that modelling Bayesian learning regarding house prices in the contextof a DSGE model with credit frictions allows us to simultaneously replicate the dramaticvolatility in house prices - which played a crucial role in the subprime crisis - and in businesscycle variables over the 1985-2015 period.

Conceptual development and achievement are embedded in social relationships. Research on self-fulfilling prophecies in the classroom has shown teachers' inaccurate perceptions about a child's ability shape schoolchildren's intellectual development in the direction of the misperception (Jussim & Harber, 2005; Rosenthal & Jacobson, 1968; Sorhagen, 2013). This contrasts with prior research on the influences of parents' misperceptions, which has shown that parents with accurate perceptions of their child's abilities, compared to those with misperceptions, have children with advanced conceptual development and higher achievement (Hunt & Paraskevopoulos, 1980; S. A. Miller, Manhal, & Mee, 1991; Sorhagen, 2014a, 2014b). Taken together, the literature on adult misperceptions of child abilities paints discrepant pictures of how adults' inaccurate beliefs may influence children's achievement trajectories. There is evidence for conditional direct and indirect effects of misperceptions within both literatures. Perhaps if moderating conditions were the same at school and at home, the effects of teacher and parent misperceptions would be the same. The present dissertation used prospective data to address the conflicting evidence on the effects of teachers' and mothers' misperceptions of abilities, focusing on differences in the magnitude and direction of adult misperceptions by the levels of environmental control (i.e. rigidly structured and intrusive versus autonomy-supporting). The results confirmed and extended the prior literature by showing that children's reading and math achievement in high school were differentially affected by the accuracy of adults' perceptions of the children's abilities depending on whether the adult is a teacher or mother. Children's high school performance benefited most when their teachers overestimated their abilities and when their mothers' accurately estimated their abilities in in third-grade. Furthermore, there was evidence for mediation through adults' differential treatment in the reading models. Evidence for moderation was also seen in the reading models, but only for the influence of teachers' misperceptions on teacher attention, which indirectly led to differences in child achievement (i.e. conditional indirect effects). The effects of teachers' misperceptions were more profound at low levels of environmental control compared to highly controlled classrooms. Thus environmental control did not lead to similar influences of teacher and mother misperceptions. This supports the notion that there are different consequences of teacher and mother misperceptions on child achievement. The results of additional analyses found child characteristics (i.e. child birth order, gender, ethnicity, family SES, child social competencies, and prior abilities), as well as teacher's self-efficacy predicted the degree of accuracy of the adults' perceptions of children's reading and math abilities. Furthermore, the results showed that teachers' and mothers' perceptions were often accurate, but when one adult was inaccurate, it was likely that the other adult's perception was similar. As we become increasingly aware of the importance of social influences on cognition, the results of the present dissertation suggest that it is important to consider differences between socializing agents. / Psychology

DUŠKOVÁ, Barbora. The relationship between the teacher and the pupils at the elementary school. České Budějovice: University of South Bohemia, Pedagogical Faculty, Department of Pedagogy and Psychology, 2011, 85 pp., Supervisor of the diploma thesis PhDr. Marta Franclová. This diloma thesis is focused on the topic of the relationship between the teacher and the pupils at the elementary school.The theoretical part describes changes in the czech school system after 1989 and concerns developement of the new educational aims. It also deals with the personality of a teacher and his temperament, choice of teacher´s profession and requirements for this job. The theoretical part also contains the question of mutual relationship between the teacher and the pupils. In the practical part the author focuses on the results of the research of teacher´s interactive style which was accomplished by the method of the questionnaire.